An Assessment Of The Predictions Of The Commercial Company Global Weather Oscillations Inc And The Onset Of Global Cooling.

[Cycles]

Question???

How is the Met Office forecast verifying concerning this winters temperature forecast. I seem to remember a forecast issued in November for a marginally warm winter?

Regards

David

[johnholmes]

with respect mate what has that got to do with your predictions?

somewhere on this forum is an item from an interview a Daily Telegraph reporter did with a senior member of the UK Met where he openly admitted they were wrong in their initial assessment.

this is the link

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=53488

I also suspect you have rather misquoted their original winter forecast, I'll try and find the original

tks Lady P below

this appears to be there September initial output

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)

Temperature

Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests Winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.

Rainfall

Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal

Edited February 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[LadyPakal]

May be some thing of interest in these threads:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49534

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=51655

[Cycles]

with respect mate what has that got to do with your predictions?

somewhere on this forum is an item from an interview a Daily Telegraph reporter did with a senior member of the UK Met where he openly admitted they were wrong in their initial assessment.

this is the link

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=53488

I also suspect you have rather misquoted their original winter forecast, I'll try and find the original

tks Lady P below

this appears to be there September initial output

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)

Temperature

Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests Winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.

Rainfall

Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal

There is an assessment of my global cooling forecast being run here. Back in June I said this winter would be the beginning of stage 1 cooling. And the Met Office in the fall did call for a marginally warm winter. So far my forecast for global cooling is working out just fine. Was just wondering how the Met Office was doing.

Regards

David

[johnholmes]

well you have copied and pasted what I tried to show was their initial idea, revised twice by them since then I believe!

[Iceberg]

Not well I believe GWO, i will post up the specifics when they are released. But the MSU satelite for Jan was very warm (the warmest positive anomaly since 2007, was again a top 10 month), for the N.Hemisphere it was +0.47 which I am sure you know would be categorised as very warm. Not bad when we have had some very negative ENSO signals and not really conclusive for global cooling.

Can I just remind that this thread s discuss the forecasts of GWO inc. and not the Met Office, which as you have just mentioned John have said they got it wrong and are looking to correct there processes, I also don't think they claim an almost 100% accuracy.

[Cycles]

Not well I believe GWO, i will post up the specifics when they are released. But the MSU satelite for Jan was very warm (the warmest positive anomaly since 2007, was again a top 10 month), for the N.Hemisphere it was +0.47 which I am sure you know would be categorised as very warm. Not bad when we have had some very negative ENSO signals and not really conclusive for global cooling.

Can I just remind that this thread s discuss the forecasts of GWO inc. and not the Met Office, which as you have just mentioned John have said they got it wrong and are looking to correct there processes, I also don't think they claim an almost 100% accuracy.

Hard to believe the MSU satelite for Jan could possibly be the "warmest positive anomaly since 2007". Very cold throughout most of North America, the Arctic and portions of northern Europe and even in Peru. Much of the United States experienced the coldest January in 15 years and it is carrying over into February.

Regards

David

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not well I believe GWO, i will post up the specifics when they are released. But the MSU satelite for Jan was very warm (the warmest positive anomaly since 2007, was again a top 10 month), for the N.Hemisphere it was +0.47 which I am sure you know would be categorised as very warm. Not bad when we have had some very negative ENSO signals and not really conclusive for global cooling.

Can I just remind that this thread s discuss the forecasts of GWO inc. and not the Met Office, which as you have just mentioned John have said they got it wrong and are looking to correct there processes, I also don't think they claim an almost 100% accuracy.

No they quoted as saying 75% warm or 25% chance of cold.....it was way off the mark. I await the jan figures but that seems way off the mark, there has ben exceptional widespread cold.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Hard to believe the MSU satelite for Jan could possibly be the "warmest positive anomaly since 2007". Very cold throughout most of North America, the Arctic and portions of northern Europe and even in Peru. Much of the United States experienced the coldest January in 15 years and it is carrying over into February.

Regards

David

Up to you whether you believe it or not, but for every cold anom there is a warm one and the one in Australia in jan is a very good example. I'd suggest looking at the MSU data for Jan 09..The 7th Warmest Jan on record. For the 48 states is was above average as well.

Much of the US did not experience the coldest Jan for 15 years.

BFTP sorry I am not trying to stiffle debate but this isn't the thread to discuss the meto winter forecast.

[Cycles]

No they quoted as saying 75% warm or 25% chance of cold.....it was way off the mark. I await the jan figures but that seems way off the mark, there has ben exceptional widespread cold.

BFTP

Here are the MSU figures for January. It shows the Continental US as being the second coldest January in the past 11 years.

Not sure how to read other locations on here, I am sure someone can help.

All Figures are for January 2009 back to 1996

year mon -70.0/ -20.0/ 20.0/ -70.0/ 60.0/ -70.0/ Cont. 0.0/ -70.0/ 82.5 20.0 82.5 -20.0 82.5 -60.0 USA 82.5 0.02009 1 0.322 0.067 0.670 0.242 1.131 -0.034 0.358 0.449 0.190

2008 1 -0.066 -0.181 -0.067 0.066 0.246 -0.539 -0.589 -0.118 -0.0122007 7 0.349 0.394 0.548 0.084 1.131 0.464 0.964 0.492 0.1992006 1 0.295 0.240 0.300 0.353 0.083 0.137 2.421 0.299 0.2912005 1 0.493 0.509 0.756 0.195 1.775 0.247 1.625 0.650 0.3302004 1 0.355 0.479 0.231 0.346 0.552 0.058 0.166 0.309 0.4032003 1 0.461 0.581 0.655 0.116 0.881 0.494 0.952 0.629 0.2852002 1 0.363 0.211 0.677 0.202 0.076 -0.165 1.180 0.505 0.2162001 1 0.096 -0.070 0.286 0.081 0.382 -0.099 0.617 0.181 0.0062000 1 -0.068 -0.156 0.048 -0.091 -0.183 -0.849 0.742 -0.037 -0.1011999 1 0.164 -0.058 0.475 0.086 -0.668 -1.238 1.057 0.280 0.0441998 1 0.550 1.134 0.161 0.299 0.037 -0.088 1.209 0.506 0.5961997 1 -0.043 -0.230 -0.076 0.206 -0.291 -0.297 -0.087 -0.137 0.0561996 1 -0.041 -0.152 0.057 -0.018 0.836 -0.294 -0.438 0.008 -0.091

Link is below http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time...Ocean_v03_2.txt

Edited February 6, 2009 by GlobalWeatherOscillations

[Iceberg]

GWO that's pretty unreadable can you show me the source url ?

[Cycles]

GWO that's pretty unreadable can you show me the source url ?

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time...Ocean_v03_2.txt

[Iceberg]

Thanks but that has continental US at 0.358 which was considerably warmer than last years.

[Cycles]

Thanks but that has continental US at 0.358 which was considerably warmer than last years.

Iceberg...can you clarify how to interpret the figures? I.E. Is a positive warmer than a negative

[Iceberg]

Yep sure is as it's a postive temp anomaly, we are talking about the Jan 2009 figure I put a red box around arn't we.

[Cycles]

Yep sure is as it's a postive temp anomaly, we are talking about the Jan 2009 figure I put a red box around arn't we.

Looking at the figures I see the last 2 years being the 2 coldest January's during the past 11 years...this year warmer than last January, but both January's colder than any other's during the past 11 years.

[Roger J Smith]

Any effort to pass off this recent January in North America as being "warm" just because the severe cold relented to near normal for a few days is not going to fly. Most of the continent had a cold month, perhaps the southwest U.S. was above normal, I doubt that most central or eastern locations were, and at times it was near-record cold. There is a milder spell underway at present, doesn't look all that intense or long-lived, but I'm sure we'll hear all about it if some climat station in Maryland opened up in 2004 breaks their 2007 daily record as another sign of impending disaster.

I would say on balance the winter in North America has been about like the winter in Europe, rather cold, not extremely cold, but generally lacking in very mild spells. By North American standards it has not been very stormy, the west coast had a lot of snow in December but other than that, storminess has been average in New England and Atlantic Canada, and probably well below average in other regions. I don't think there was one really significant weather event in the whole month in Washington DC, just a persistent slight cold anomaly. There was a severe ice storm in late January in the Ohio valley, but that's about the only really severe storm we've seen across populated areas of North America all winter, really, the rest of them have been garden-variety, other than our locally very heavy snowfalls here.

The main feature of the North American winter so far has been a core of very cold arctic air generally extending from the northwest parts of Canada to the central plains states. At times this has been 15 to 25 degrees below normal in temperature throughout those regions. The severe cold began to relent around Jan 20th but mild spells have been alternating with cold spells since then. Other regions have been getting either the outflow from that persistent cold block, or else avoiding it for periods when the circulation allows, but that's where the cold air has been most persistent, at least since December 10th when this pattern set up.

The situation with the El Nino looks like a possible brief episode may flare up, but I continue to think that major El Nino activity will be delayed until around 2012 or so. If there is any positive SOI this year I think it will be a case of weak El Nino or staying in the neutral range, then back to a weak La Nina perhaps around 2010-11.

[Iceberg]

With the greatest of respect Tbh you can say what you like Roger, so can GWO but the Satelite record which even the skeptics agree is accurate says that it has been above average in Jan for the states and warmer than last year.(Not the coldest for 15 years as gwo claimed !). and also according to the satelite record this is the highest positive anomaly globally for 15 months.

I am not saying that some places in the US haven't been cold, they undoubtedly have..The US is very very large though and will always have cold and warmth areas certainly no argument there, but in Jan on balance it's been 0.3 above average according to the warmer 79-00 baseline.

I am sure NASA and Hadley will be out soon but with those you get the arguement of biased stations etc when its warm, the satelite doesn't suffer from this.

Of course the data could be wrong but there is nothing to suggest it is.

Can we lay this to bed now I will update when all the global temperature updates are in for Jan.

Cheers

[johnholmes]

maybe the USA weather service will publish their view of the winter much as our own Met office do once we get to early March.

Perhaps that will give a definitive answer although how people can argue with the sat data is a bit hard to understand.

[Cycles]

With the greatest of respect Tbh you can say what you like Roger, so can GWO but the Satelite record which even the skeptics agree is accurate says that it has been above average in Jan for the states and warmer than last year.(Not the coldest for 15 years as gwo claimed !). and also according to the satelite record this is the highest positive anomaly globally for 15 months.

I am not saying that some places in the US haven't been cold, they undoubtedly have..The US is very very large though and will always have cold and warmth areas certainly no argument there, but in Jan on balance it's been 0.3 above average according to the warmer 79-00 baseline.

I am sure NASA and Hadley will be out soon but with those you get the arguement of biased stations etc when its warm, the satelite doesn't suffer from this.

Of course the data could be wrong but there is nothing to suggest it is.

Can we lay this to bed now I will update when all the global temperature updates are in for Jan.

Cheers

To put it in perspective Iceberg.

January of 2009 was warmer than January 2008 but still the second coldest in 11 years.

January 2008 was the coldest in 9 years.

January of 2009 was the second coldest (behind 2008) in 11 years.

The 2 consecutive January's (2008 and 2009) are the coldest consecutive January's in 12 years.

This is also true for Canada and Alaska, of which Alaska I am sure has seen its coldest in over 12 years.

Best Regards

David

Any effort to pass off this recent January in North America as being "warm" just because the severe cold relented to near normal for a few days is not going to fly. Most of the continent had a cold month, perhaps the southwest U.S. was above normal, I doubt that most central or eastern locations were, and at times it was near-record cold. There is a milder spell underway at present, doesn't look all that intense or long-lived, but I'm sure we'll hear all about it if some climat station in Maryland opened up in 2004 breaks their 2007 daily record as another sign of impending disaster.

I would say on balance the winter in North America has been about like the winter in Europe, rather cold, not extremely cold, but generally lacking in very mild spells. By North American standards it has not been very stormy, the west coast had a lot of snow in December but other than that, storminess has been average in New England and Atlantic Canada, and probably well below average in other regions. I don't think there was one really significant weather event in the whole month in Washington DC, just a persistent slight cold anomaly. There was a severe ice storm in late January in the Ohio valley, but that's about the only really severe storm we've seen across populated areas of North America all winter, really, the rest of them have been garden-variety, other than our locally very heavy snowfalls here.

The main feature of the North American winter so far has been a core of very cold arctic air generally extending from the northwest parts of Canada to the central plains states. At times this has been 15 to 25 degrees below normal in temperature throughout those regions. The severe cold began to relent around Jan 20th but mild spells have been alternating with cold spells since then. Other regions have been getting either the outflow from that persistent cold block, or else avoiding it for periods when the circulation allows, but that's where the cold air has been most persistent, at least since December 10th when this pattern set up.

The situation with the El Nino looks like a possible brief episode may flare up, but I continue to think that major El Nino activity will be delayed until around 2012 or so. If there is any positive SOI this year I think it will be a case of weak El Nino or staying in the neutral range, then back to a weak La Nina perhaps around 2010-11.

Roger

I agree with you that we are likely headed for a brief El Nino as we see warming in Nino regions 1 and 2,. And I agree that the next El Nino will likely be right around 2012.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Can I just remind that this thread s discuss the forecasts of GWO inc. and not the Met Office, which as you have just mentioned John have said they got it wrong and are looking to correct there processes, I also don't think they claim an almost 100% accuracy.

If I remember rightly they claim 66% or 70% accuracy (I'm not sure which of the two) but either figure sounds reasonable.

I will be looking out for the NCDC report on global temperatures for January in mid-February. I trust their, and CRU/Hadley's, datasets more than NASA because there have been strong rumours of NASA fiddling the data to show increased warming and the like, though I'm not sure how founded those rumours are.

Januarys 2007 and 2008 were very interesting. January 2007 was one of the globally warmest months on record- with particularly extreme anomalies over Eurasia. January 2008, on the other hand, was close to the long-term average- I recall some parts of the world even fell fractionally below the average. So it doesn't surprise me that January 2009 has fallen between the two. Again, perhaps tentative signs of a slowing in the trend, but no sign of any cooling I'm afraid.

Chances are the 1998 record will be broken next time we get a strong El Nino.

[Iceberg]

Actually we are not going more and more negative. Nino 1 and 2 just had a major temperature increase with above mean anomally. This bears watching, NOAA and other organizations did not have this forecast to occur.

Regards

David

David hopefully we can close this prediction now, the Nove/Dec/Jan update has been posted by NOAA and shows a further fall in the ENSO signal taking us more negative to -0.6 now, this is La Nina territory. It is forecasted to last for 3 months and I wouldn't be surprised if a La Nina is officially called later in the Spring.

The small amount of warming you picked up on in Zone 1/2 has now turned negative with the following values in the last week.

Zone 4 = -0.8

Zone 3.4 = -0.9

Zone 3 = -0.7

Zone 1 and 2 = -0.3

In the last 50 years an ENSO signal has not gone from being in La Nina Territory to El Nino Territory in less than 3 months, considering the negative anomalies have been increasing during Feb, the earliest El Nino would be May but more likely June/July.

Will you finally admit that your prediction was very wide of the mark and your ENSO forecasting techniques need to be looked at again.

I will re-examine the global temperature series when all the figures are in.

[VillagePlank]

Chances are the 1998 record will be broken next time we get a strong El Nino.

What a wonderful metric that will be! Surely, if we can measure the strength of the El Nino, and, given that the next one might be as strong as the last one, we can take a measurement of the global temperature average and compare the two events.

Edited February 10, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Iceberg]

I've done that VP, it's higher now than previously.

[Gray-Wolf]

As are the cold phases of the PDO ,cold phase after cold phase. The current PDO may well be 0.5c (globally) higher than the last so the rate of change is quickening.

As for Nina......no thank you! I'm sure the 'cold' signals are a hangover from the previous and ,as summer takes hold in the northern hermisphere, we'll be neutral with the prospects of the next phase being a Nino' (IMHO)

If Nino' does present then the current PDO phase should 'cool' it slightly, however I'd put a long odds bet on the formation of the Nino' pushing the PDO 'neutral' or 'positive'.

How's about that for the tail wagging the dog???