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Tropical Storm Three


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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Second system of this season

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Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm THREE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Somalia

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Yemen

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Xaafunn (10.5 N, 51.2 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

It's actually the third of the North Indian Ocean season. We've had Nargis, 02B and now 03A. If you referring to the South Indian ocean there has only been one system so far, and that's Asma. All rather confusing! :doh:

Anyway, 03A has been moving westwards across the Arabian Sea as a tropical disturbance over the last few days. It's finally gained enough organisation to be designated a tropical cyclone, just off the coast of Somalia. The storm is under some moderate easterly shear at the moment which is displacing convection slightly west of the centre, and thus already providing heavy rains onto the coast. 03A is expected to push northwestwards and pass over northeastern Somalia before re-emerging over water. It's likely to be still at 35kts at landfall due to the shear and, especially later on, dry air from land. Once 03A emerges over the Gulf of Aden it is not expected to re-intensify prior to a second lanfall in Yemen, as the dry air is likely to kill off the system.

post-1820-1224542099_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
you just said that to show off * goes and hides*

No I didn't :D . Come back :D

TC03A has tracked generally northwards today and has maintained intensity. A more northwestward track is forecast to materialise shortly, bringing 03A inland across northeastern Somalia. Land interaction will begin a weakening process, which will continue as dry air gets sucked into the storm when it reaches the Gulf Of Aden. Shear is currently confining convection to the western quadrant of the circulation centre so intensification is not expected prior to landfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

03A has begin weakening, and intensity is reduced to 30kts. The forecast track for 03A has changed and the cyclone has actually moved northwards and has crossed the islands of Socotra. Landfall is now not likely for Somalia, and when 03A reaches Yemen, it is likely to be a remant low.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

03A is lingering near the coast of Yemen, and has continued to weaken. Intensity has been reduced to 25kts due to dry air entainment and land interaction. The LLC is becoming increasingly ill defined, thus 03A is expected to dissipate just inland within 12hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The remnants of 03A have caused severe flooding over Yemen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Yemen_floods

Death toll currently stands at an estimated 69 though this number may well rise.

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