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Tropical Depression 17 E


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

A well defined low a few hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico has become organised enough to be designated TD17. There are good banding features and some good central convection building, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets upgraded to a tropical storm later tonight or early tomorrow. However, long term, the future is bleak for this cyclone. TD17 is heading northwards towards cooler waters and some high shear, therfore there is only a small window of oppurtunity for strengthening. Judging on the good look the system is now, I'm going to have a guess at a peak of 40kts before these unfavourable conditions take over. You can see on satellite imagery the new depression is already looking fairly impressive for the intensity it's currently at:

post-1820-1224783551_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

TD17E has surprised me a bit. I really thought it would get upgraded overnight but it wasn't to be. There is next to no chance now as very strong shear has practically destroyed the circulation, in fact I can't see it on latest satellite imagery. Remnant convection has been blasted away to the northeast by 40kts of shear. So it's bye bye 17E, and regeneration is not expected.

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