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Record Warm Events


jethro

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

    Over in the other threads we quite often have "records" held up as proof or other wise of AGW and a warming world. In themselves, they prove nothing but the frequency or severity of them, may reveal a picture (if only how the media reports them).

    I thought I'd create a place for posting these events, past, present and future to see what, if anything, is revealed.

    Feel free to post absolutely thing weather-wise which is notable.

    In order to keep a basic track of volume could you please accompany your post with a number (the following number from the previous post) so that we can keep a running record.

    Get posting folks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Well, here's my (very) quick analysis.

    This is a chart of the entire CET record, detailing how many months have posted a new high, an how many months have posted a new low CET score. The temperature for each month is compared to the entire cet record, so a June temperature is compared to all subsequent temperatures no matter which month they fall in.

    I have included, uncommented source-code, so that my methods are transparent. There may be bugs in it, as, as I've said this is a quick effort:

    post-5986-1226060720_thumb.png

    cetrecord_source.rtf

    ... and I've been careful not to draw any conclusions ..

    Further ideas - ignore temperatures that fall outside the given range which takes out anomalously cold, and anomalously hot temps which are a freak event, and have no bearing on the subject at hand.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    Well, here's my (very) quick analysis.

    This is a chart of the entire CET record, detailing how many months have posted a new high, an how many months have posted a new low CET score. The temperature for each month is compared to the entire cet record, so a June temperature is compared to all subsequent temperatures no matter which month they fall in.

    I have included, uncommented source-code, so that my methods are transparent. There may be bugs in it, as, as I've said this is a quick effort:

    post-5986-1226060720_thumb.png

    cetrecord_source.rtf

    ... and I've been careful not to draw any conclusions ..

    Further ideas - ignore temperatures that fall outside the given range which takes out anomalously cold, and anomalously hot temps which are a freak event, and have no bearing on the subject at hand.

    Perhaps it's my cold but I don't fully understand this. For example wasn't the warmest CET April 2007, so shouldn't the red line extent as a '1' to then? Or, is it daily records? In which case why don't April 2007, August 2003, July 1983, December 1981 feature as either warm or cold? Perhaps all these daily records were outside the CET area?

    Not a criticism btw :doh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    Perhaps it's my cold but I don't fully understand this. For example wasn't the warmest CET April 2007, so shouldn't the red line extent as a '1' to then? Or, is it daily records? In which case why don't April 2007, August 2003, July 1983, December 1981 feature as either warm or cold? Perhaps all these daily records were outside the CET area?

    Without an explantion by way of lables. I to am confused

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    Perhaps it's my cold but I don't fully understand this. For example wasn't the warmest CET April 2007, so shouldn't the red line extent as a '1' to then? Or, is it daily records? In which case why don't April 2007, August 2003, July 1983, December 1981 feature as either warm or cold? Perhaps all these daily records were outside the CET area?

    Not a criticism btw :doh:

    April 2007 is nowhere near the top when temperature is considered without monthly encumberance. coming some 1593rd place in the series sorted by temperature descending (out of 4198 possible places) So, I guess, it's still in the top half.

    This chart is against all monthly temperatures - after all, if it is warming then all temperatures must be rising, yes? And if it isn't why is the warming seasonally biased, or even worse, monthly biased.

    Here's the top ten (year, month, cet)

    2006 7 19.7

    1983 7 19.5

    1995 8 19.2

    1997 8 18.9

    1783 7 18.8

    1852 7 18.7

    1975 8 18.7

    1976 7 18.7

    1995 7 18.6

    1947 8 18.6

    Here's the bottom ten:

    1795 1 -3.1

    1684 1 -3

    1814 1 -2.9

    1740 1 -2.8

    1963 1 -2.1

    1716 1 -2

    1947 2 -1.9

    1895 2 -1.8

    1855 2 -1.7

    1776 1 -1.6

    Will probably have a go at a month by month comparison, later, when I have some time

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    April 2007 is nowhere near the top when temperature is considered without monthly encumberance. coming some 1593rd place in the series ....

    I think my post wasn't clear :doh: I didn't mean April 2007 was the warmest month but the warmest April, so it should make the red line '1'? But looking again at the graph maybe it does :doh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Warm events???

    Due to the fact that they are 'summer seasonal' I'm gonna drop Hurricane 'Paloma's' record in here.

    For many years the record for consecutive months with a 'major' (Cat 3 or above) Hurricane was '3'.

    In 2005 this changes to '4' .

    Today Paloma 'upped' the record to '5', yes 5!!!, consecutive months with a major Hurricane forming in them.

    Records have been kept since 1851 by the way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
    Well, here's my (very) quick analysis.

    This is a chart of the entire CET record, detailing how many months have posted a new high, an how many months have posted a new low CET score. The temperature for each month is compared to the entire cet record, so a June temperature is compared to all subsequent temperatures no matter which month they fall in.

    I have included, uncommented source-code, so that my methods are transparent. There may be bugs in it, as, as I've said this is a quick effort:

    post-5986-1226060720_thumb.png

    cetrecord_source.rtf

    ... and I've been careful not to draw any conclusions ..

    Further ideas - ignore temperatures that fall outside the given range which takes out anomalously cold, and anomalously hot temps which are a freak event, and have no bearing on the subject at hand.

    More records are always broken during the early years of a data set. There are less other months to beat.

    As the data set gets longer, if the climate was stable, the time between records being broken should get longer and longer as each new warmest or coldest month raises the proverbial bar.

    It would be interesting to run the same analysis but with the climate data in reverse, i.e. make 2007 the first year and 1659 the last year and then compare the shape of the two graphs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayes, Kent
  • Location: Hayes, Kent

    It certainly is an interesting anomaly for October but is there any supporting evidence for this?

    I ask because the GISS anomaly map for the UK shows a significant positive anomaly in October which is not supported by the CET.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
    It certainly is an interesting anomaly for October but is there any supporting evidence for this?

    I ask because the GISS anomaly map for the UK shows a significant positive anomaly in October which is not supported by the CET.

    Questions are indeed asked about this data by some of the usual suspects.

    BUT, these warm and cold threads are for posting reports, I think any discussion of said should be for new threads. Feel free to set one up and I'll participate in it :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    October......warmest global land temps since records began.............

    Temperature Rankings and Graphics

    Current Month / Year-to-date

    Effective with the February 2006 report, NCDC transitioned from the use of the Operational Global Surface Temperature Index (Quayle et al. 1999) to the blended land and ocean dataset developed by Smith and Reynolds (2005). The differences between the two methods are discussed in Smith et al. (2005). The ranks found in the tables below are based on records that began in 1880.

    October 2008 ranked as the second warmest October since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, behind 2003. Temperatures were warmer than average across Asia, Australia, Europe, and northern Canada, prompting the October 2008 global land surface anomalies to be the warmest on record. The global average ocean surface temperature (SST) in October was the sixth warmest on record.

    Do 'global records' trump all others????

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire
    October......warmest global land temps since records began.............

    "This is not surprising as NOAA has become the biggest outlier in recent months. They have thanks to Tom Peterson and Tom Karl a global data base that is worth nothing. There is little or no adjustment for urbanization, land use changes, no adjustment for bad station siting (69% of the 560 US climate stations surveyed by Anthony Watts team of volunteers were poor or very poorly sited), 2/3rds of the stations globally dropped out around 1990, the number of missing months increased tenfold in the FSU and Africa after 1990, and changes in instrumentation like here in the US that Tom Karl himself found produced a warm bias of 0.5F. All these introduce a warm bias, none of which are corrected for. Not less than 6 peer review studies have shown these issues may account for up to 50% of the warming since 1900. Trust only the satellite. In fact, this October was the 10th warmest of the 30 years of data for the MSU satellite according to UAH with only a 0.167C (0.3F) anomaly instead of the 1.1F (2nd warmest out of 129 years) as per NOAA. Unfortunately satellite data extends only back to 1979."

    Trust those baddies at ICECAP to go and burst the warmie's bubble - again. I'm still a confirmed contrarian. The 'efforts' put into upholding the myth is becoming staggering and ,ahem,alarming :lol: .

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

    You forget the biggest issue of all with this 'record' - the fact that some of the stations used September temps for October (mostly over Russia but even my location in Aberdeen had the same issue). Which is why they hastily had to recalculate.

    Here is one:

    http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4332

    among many others.

    The offical statement:

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    You forget the biggest issue of all with this 'record' - the fact that some of the stations used September temps for October (mostly over Russia but even my location in Aberdeen had the same issue). Which is why they hastily had to recalculate.

    Here is one:

    http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4332

    among many others.

    The offical statement:

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

    Sooooo, let me get this right....with the global spotlight on them they are now going to come out with 'suspect ' figures for the month????

    A mistake was made, within hours the mistake was identified and rectified, due too all of our weary eyes helping them out, then???

    I do tire of these endless circles, I think, come the next El-Nino, there will be a lot of contrarians very happy to accept that we are still influenced by various natural drivers and yet here they are telling us warming has stopped/slowed/was never there because of the impacts of a northern hemisphere 'cool' phase. Warmest October posted in the middle of the 'cooling'?? not bad eh? I would have thought it should be in the 'coldest' end of things and that would take one heck of an error to skew temps so far up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

    I am posting this in both the Hot & Cold Record Events threads since it details both.

    This webpage http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...cords/index.php enables you to look up the daily record cold and hot temperatures notified since 2006 by up to 200,000 weather stations in the USA. Only stations with at least 30 years' records are included, and they must have at least 50% data completeness. I have analysed the data for the daily temp records equalled or broken each month for 2008 to date, and here are the results. There are four potential records - lowest maximum & lowest minimum, and highest max & highest min: I've put these together in pairs as "cold records set/tied" & "warm records set/tied":

    Jan 2008: 5300 record events - 26% cold; 74% warm

    Feb 2008: 3737 record events - 35% cold; 65% warm

    Mar 2008: 2086 record events - 53% cold; 47% warm

    Apr 2008: 4076 record events - 74% cold; 26% warm

    May 2008: 4599 record events - 48% cold; 52% warm

    Jun 2008: 5239 record events - 25% cold; 75% warm

    July 2008: 2814 record events - 50% cold; 50% warm

    Aug 2008: 4199 record events - 47% cold; 53% warm

    Sep 2008: 4503 record events - 46% cold; 54% warm

    Oct 2008: 3953 record events - 58% cold; 42% warm

    Overall, Jan-Sept, there were 40,506 daily record temps set or equalled, of which 45% were cold records & 55% were warm records. To me that looks like a clear pattern - even in the USA that we are so often told isn't warming now at all. You can draw your own conclusions.

    They also give figures for November to date, but it is clear from the smaller number of stations mentioned (about 100,000) that many data sets are not yet in. So far there are 405 cold records listed this month vs 2658 - nearly 87% - warm ones. I imagine, though, that the recent bitter blast has not yet fed into the figures properly. I should probably do the whole year's figures again come January - not to mention repeating the exercise for 2006 & 2007. Any other volunteers...?! B)

    Ossie

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