Has Ian Browns Forecast Been Seen Yet? Here It Is If Not

[tcc]

Mods - feel free to delete or move if it's being discussed elsewhere:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...t=0&start=0

Execellent forecast......for Mushymanrob!

[Don]

Saw this earlier. Doesn't make a good reading to say the least for cold weather enthusiasts, does it?! We will see......

[sundog]

I just want to forget ive seen that forecast

I would love to say imo that its probably very wrong,but i cant cos the way our winters have been going i would not bet againest it either

[I remember Atlantic 252]

thats what winter will be, always will be from now on, similar to 06/07, even larger teapot, i dont expect anything else in a uk winter forecast

[azores92]

thats what winter will be, always will be from now on, similar to 06/07, even larger teapot, i dont expect anything else in a uk winter forecast

always is a strong word, of course there will be cold winters thrown into the mix. its not all doom and gloom in winters from here on. ians summer forecast wasnt entirely correct anyway, with august supposed to be somewhat high pressure dominated, when it wasnt particularly, and the hottest week came in mid to late august, rather than third week of july. anyway, its his opinion and he could be right, probably will be knowing modern winters, but there will always be surprises.

Edited November 2, 2008 by azores92

[Snowyowl9]

always is a strong word, of course there will be cold winters thrown into the mix. its not all doom and gloom in winters from here on. ians summer forecast wasnt entirely correct anyway, with august supposed to be somewhat high pressure dominated, when it wasnt particularly, and the hottest week came in mid to late august, rather than third week of july.

August will be remembered as the dullest ever thats for sure.

If we compare this year so far with the last la nina year 1999 this year come out in the CET so far at about 5.2c lower which is a positive we can take.

As for winter well it can`t be any milder that last year I wouldn`t of thought.

This autumn so far is proving yet anyway to go against what the meto forecast which said above average temps and less rainfall to the summer that part is somewhat closer, so we`ll see as ever what comes, and with 6 months below average this year so far this cooling trend continues.

[Geordiesnow]

I notice the words ''even larger teapot'' was used in that forecast, no surprises Ian has predicted a mild winter, he basically written off last winter in the first few days of December last year although he was prooven to be correct.

Still there only predictions, mother nature will have the final say.

[karyo]

It sounds like a direct copy of the last 2 winters but milder still! It sounds overly pessimistic but i agree about the stratospheric cooling coming...

Karyo

[azores92]

It sounds like a direct copy of the last 2 winters but milder still! It sounds overly pessimistic but i agree about the stratospheric cooling coming...

Karyo

well we shall see, perhaps the warming shall continue, making it cool and dry.

[VillagePlank]

Yeah, yeah, the forecast is based on the form horse so, I guess, we shall wait and see.

[blitzen]

God, that forecast has really depressed me, hope it's wrong. I was latching onto the Hale winter theory. He hasn't evidenced anything really though has he? just based it on what has gone before. It has to change one of these years.

[ANYWEATHER]

I love these outlandish, long range weather predictions, there about as good as the proverbial "chocolate teapot"

[TEITS]

A completely pointless forecast IMO.

The trouble with IB and his forecasts is that he just predicts the same without looking at the overall current situation. Now backing the form horse might make it favourite but this isn't the correct way of producing a LRF. Lets use the last 2 summers as an example. Based on our summers in the last 10 yrs who on earth would of predicted such a miserable couple of summers.

I've always said since I joined this forum that one of these years this country is going to experience a very cold winter and it isn't a case of if but when. I believe this winter is going to be the one we have been waiting for and I know I have said this in the past but I genuinely believe it to be true this winter.

Hold on to your hats & scarves because this Dec is going to be bitter!

[Yozzer]

A completely pointless forecast IMO.

The trouble with IB and his forecasts is that he just predicts the same without looking at the overall current situation. Now backing the form horse might make it favourite but this isn't the correct way of producing a LRF. Lets use the last 2 summers as an example. Based on our summers in the last 10 yrs who on earth would of predicted such a miserable couple of summers.

I've always said since I joined this forum that one of these years this country is going to experience a very cold winter and it isn't a case of if but when. I believe this winter is going to be the one we have been waiting for and I know I have said this in the past but I genuinely believe it to be true this winter.

Hold on to your hats & scarves because this Dec is going to be bitter!

Hi TEITS,

Sorry if this sounds a bit direct, but isn't your forecast above just similar to what you're accusing Ian of? I'm not defending him, as I believe his is a climatic prediction rather than a weather forecast. But in the same way, saying that we're going to get a howler of a winter one of these days, and this could be the one, is stating the bl##din' obvious! It is a 'hopecast', not a forecast, and Ian's is a 'defaultcast.'

Either one of you could be right about this winter (the 'form horse' of Ian's is most likely, but yours is possible too). We'll see when we do a PM come the spring, but that isn't weather forecasting...

No offence mate.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It was an intriguing read [not his forecast because I think anyone that remebers IB could see that coming] but what he has been up to and his whining. Last December he did NOT see the HP that developed coming and that is a new thing he has brought into his 'theory'

BFTP

Ian's is a 'defaultcast.'

Term of the autumn

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2008 by shuggee
Removed reference to another post

[Kentish Man]

Given the law of averages I'd really be quite surprised if Ian Brown's record warm January 2009 came to pass given the previous two Januarys have been so exceptionally warm. More likely I think is an average winter, which would suggest colder outbreaks may be more frequent and/or longer-lasting than in the last two winters but no reprise of '47, '63, or '79 either.

Edited November 3, 2008 by Kentish Man

[TEITS]

Hi TEITS,

Sorry if this sounds a bit direct, but isn't your forecast above just similar to what you're accusing Ian of?

No offence taken as you're right.

[grab my graupel]

Hi everyone, Having read the above thread, the team feels, it should be pointed out, that neither 'Steve Murr' or any 'Netweather'

member was responsible for 'Ian Brown' leaving this forum, and it was purely his choice to do so.

It should also be noted, Ian Brown was never banned from here and was always free to post if he wished to.

Brian :lol:

[Stu_London]

Very specific about a storm on New's Years Day

First rule of LRF - don't call specific events

mug!

[GoKart Mozart]

What's happened to his weather website chestertonstaffs.co.uk?

It's not worked for months. I had it bookmarked cos it's near me.

Ian

[Weather-history]

thats what winter will be, always will be from now on,

Twaddle.

[azores92]

Twaddle.

haha twaddle, great word, but we can't keep being negative about our winters, we usually get one decent snowfall per winter, which causes happiness while it lasts. yes, i know we'd love more snow, but i know that too much of a good thing ends up being an annoyance after a while... ask those living somewhere like nuuk, st johns, whitehorse or nome...

[stewfox]

Hi TEITS,

Sorry if this sounds a bit direct, but isn't your forecast above just similar to what you're accusing Ian of? I'm not defending him, as I believe his is a climatic prediction rather than a weather forecast. But in the same way, saying that we're going to get a howler of a winter one of these days, and this could be the one, is stating the bl##din' obvious! It is a 'hopecast', not a forecast, and Ian's is a 'defaultcast.'

Either one of you could be right about this winter (the 'form horse' of Ian's is most likely, but yours is possible too). We'll see when we do a PM come the spring, but that isn't weather forecasting...

No offence mate.

Since the even larger teapot era began, 12 out of 21 Januarys (57%) have been mild or very mild (5C CET or above) – compare that with just one out of the previous 11 Januarys !

---------------------------------------

1 in the previous 11 Januarys or 6 in the previous 21 ??

I want a like for like, dont cherry pick

[johnholmes]

its a shame that the manner in which Ian charged off from this site seems to be colouring the views on his very well presented and argued case for his idea of the coming winter.

All the variables that play a part seem to be mentioned and either ticked or crossed for him to end with his forecast. Well worth reading simply to view his ideas on the various players, Stratospheric warming, ENSO etc etc.

my spelling gets worse by the day!

Edited November 3, 2008 by johnholmes

[Stu_London]

its a shame that the manner in which Ian charged off from this site seems to be colouring the views on his very well presented and argued case for his idea of the coming winter.

All the variables that play a part seem to be mentioned and either ticked or crossed for him to end with his forecast. Well worth reading simply to view his ideas on the various players, Stratospheric warming, ENSO etc etc.

my spelling gets worse by the day!

It's well written and the arguments are well presented and it may well prove to be correct.

However the comments regarding specific events and the selective use of statistics are equally valid

By the way, I am also in the camp that regrets Ian's decision to no longer post here. I for one did not find the term 'even larger teapot' offensive like some.