Has Ian Browns Forecast Been Seen Yet? Here It Is If Not

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well as I see it the jet has been further south this year than previous years, SSTs are nowhere near as anomalously warm as recent previous years, PDO is negative, arctic has been much more average temp wise and already it has shown how potent its cold can be so early in the season...and spilling so far south with a +ve AO. Why? Not due to a northern jet going north is it. I do not think the teleconnections have signalled what he sees at all...its pure warmism his forecast is.

Current SST

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mondy]

As has been seen on here before, anyone with a little knowledge in forecasting and lrf in particular, could quite easily write a forecast like that. And then hope and prey it comes off! Think about it - you're past-time is all things "weather" and has been for a decade or so - over time you'd soon pick up the lingo, and try your hand at a forecast. Whether it's right or wrong is the nature of the beast that is "Long Range Forecasting".

Long range forecasts should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, considering some short-range forecasts can be so wrong.

Ps, anyone know what the forecast is for end July 2009? I'm visiting St Kilda then and would like to know so I can plan sea transport now

Edited November 8, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Roger J Smith]

In terms of an actual forecast there is a plan in the works for Fred (BFTP) and yours truly to issue one together, reason being that we found that our somewhat similar methods had indicated pretty much the same scenario, and that may be posted on NW today or tomorrow. I just wanted to say with regard to this mild then milder concept being discussed here, I could see some reason for optimism that cold will enter the picture (again). I would wait for this forecast from BFTP to see the details, but I would point out that even if you look at the weather in France since about June, there has been very little above normal temperature regime which tends to indicate that the jet stream has been hanging around latitudes between 45 and 55 N much of the time, and with the usual seasonal shift southwards, this can only be good news for cold fanciers, sooner or later all that cold air that seems to be building in the Greenland sector should be free to move in your direction.

While it may not dominate the whole winter, cold should at least be more of a player this winter than in the past two. Another theme to look for, I believe, is frequent storminess. I think there will be quite a battle going on across the Atlantic because I am also getting a strong signal of a mild winter in the northeast U.S., which should launch fairly strong lows into the Atlantic so it may well be a winter of many moods, some stormy and mild, others more like stormy and cold.

Well, I hope you enjoy the forecast when it shows up, we've tried to curb our enthusiasm for cold because there is some indication of more than just a small mixture of colder weather in the winter pattern, and we didn't want to oversell what might take place, but cold should have a decent amount of playing time this season. Hopefully he will find the back of the net this time.

[Neilsouth]

LoL it's far easier to predict a mild winter than it is a cold one!

It is a pattern that may return in the second half of February, and though I expect the winter to be one of the mildest ever recorded, this blocking is likely to prevent it from being THE mildest ever.

Make up your mind , this year has been completely different than many years before it!. For example the snow down south and huge hail storm in the south west.

Also like the words used blowtorch Pattern , christmas pudding used more than once. Anyhoo good luck on this forecast

Edited November 21, 2008 by neilsouth

[SP1986]

As I believe, those who criticise should try to forecast. Ian for all his apparent extremisms may well be correct!

[Neilsouth]

As I believe, those who criticise should try to forecast. Ian for all his apparent extremisms may well be correct!

Ok then , we will have mild spells with cold snaps in between and on the 20th jan the sun will come up and go down early evening...

[chionomaniac]

I have just had a look again at Ian Brown's winter forecast to see how it is verifying so far. I have to say that the forecast is almost spot on so far, but for one minor detail - it is not the one for 2008-2009 (that's looking way off the mark so far). No it is the one on post 14, the one for 2005-2006! Spooky! Now if only he had cut and pasted that for this year. The forecast is good but the years are wrong!

[Yeti]

I have just had a look again at Ian Brown's winter forecast to see how it is verifying so far. I have to say that the forecast is almost spot on so far, but for one minor detail - it is not the one for 2008-2009 (that's looking way off the mark so far). No it is the one on post 14, the one for 2005-2006! Spooky! Now if only he had cut and pasted that for this year. The forecast is good but the years are wrong!

Yes as I'm sure we all expected it's a rubbish forecast and indeed it's almost identical every year. Absolutely way off the mark, in fact it could hardly be more different to what he forecast. Now I respect people who make long range forecasts but when it's the same one for every winter it doesn't deserve this respect IMO.

[shuggee]

Well, no Yeti. It's been as spot on as other forecasts on here (I'm thinking everyone mis-judged the cold start to December):

December

We have seen in recent years how the persistent northerly jet often ends up so far North that mid-latitude, or ‘Rex’ blocking takes hold over the UK, and this is most likely in December of this winter. It is a pattern that may return in the second half of February, and though I expect the winter to be one of the mildest ever recorded, this blocking is likely to prevent it from being THE mildest ever.

December may begin mild but a mid-latitude High pressure is likely to build and influence much of the month. An example of what is suggested is shown below:

-IMAGE LINK: Sorry, Guests cannot view links.-

This typically leads to fairly cold and dry conditions across England and Wales especially. The Christmas period is uncertain at this stage as it is possible that the High pressure could retrogress West for a time to allow a northerly airstream to briefly develop, but by the New Year, the Atlantic will return and a significant storm could hit the North and West around New Years Day.

December will be the coldest month of the winter with a CET between 4.5 and 5.C, drier than average, especially in England and Wales.

New Year hasn't happened yet - and with models going out to T+168 (the very edge of reliability) and with last night's 18z being a bit of a horror show in that reliable timeframe, this forecast, as with all forecasts can only be judged after the event.

Having said that - it's not looking good

[Yeti]

Well, no Yeti. It's been as spot on as other forecasts on here (I'm thinking everyone mis-judged the cold start to December):

New Year hasn't happened yet - and with models going out to T+168 (the very edge of reliability) and with last night's 18z being a bit of a horror show in that reliable timeframe, this forecast, as with all forecasts can only be judged after the event.

Having said that - it's not looking good B)

Come on Shugs there's not going to be a major storm on New Year's Eve! This is looking like one of the most blocked periods for a long time even if it isn't going to be massively cold - and it could be. And wrt other forecasts, so far that of BFTP and Roger has been almost spot-on - storm around mid-month, then mild period, then blocking. Far, far more accurate so I don't think all forecasters were caught out and Ian Brown's forecast has been very poor in comparison to some others, as is to be expected from a blatant mild ramper.

[Neilsouth]

The Christmas period is uncertain at this stage as it is possible that the High pressure could retrogress West for a time to allow a northerly airstream to briefly develop, but by the New Year, the Atlantic will return and a significant storm could hit the North and West around New Years Day.

Well this is wrong , we have a strong easterly developing

[The watcher]

So far his forecast has mostly been wrong, so don't take anything he says as a forecast, just a stab in the dark.

[Neilsouth]

So far his forecast has mostly been wrong, so don't take anything he says as a forecast, just a stab in the dark.

Well Ian's forecasts are the same every year just the dates changed around

[rich1]

Looks hopelessly wrong...Ian Brown's form horse has gone lame on him

he has admitted on Two, reluctantly, after another display of egotistical trolling, that the mildest january ever may not happen now [though of course it will be above average...note 'will' as he appears 100% certain on it :lol: ]

why on earth the mods over there dont turf him out I cannot fathom, hes been causing untold damage for a good 6 weeks now...

[Geordiesnow]

Looks hopelessly wrong...Ian Brown's form horse has gone lame on him

he has admitted on Two, reluctantly, after another display of egotistical trolling, that the mildest january ever may not happen now [though of course it will be above average...note 'will' as he appears 100% certain on it :lol: ]

why on earth the mods over there dont turf him out I cannot fathom, hes been causing untold damage for a good 6 weeks now...

To be fair Rich, he could still be right even though the charts would suggest otherwise, It would need a major mild spell for Jan to become above average IF the current cold charts occurs.

I seem to remember IB's infamous posts on here regarding ''winter is over'' and the ''christmas pudding'' etc but there is nothing wrong for him having an opinion though so i don't really see what he is doing wrong but then again i have not been looking at the TWO forum for a good while now so maybe he is being more of an WUM than i first thought.

[mountain shadow]

I feel a bit sorry for Ian.

After all if we do get a severe cold spell his credibility goes out the window, its know wonder he is crying out for any sort of less cold weather to save his 'even larger teapot' hypothesis.

Who will possibly listen to him again if we get an 80's event over the next fortnight.

[Neilsouth]

I feel a bit sorry for Ian.

After all if we do get a severe cold spell his credibility goes out the window, its know wonder he is crying out for any sort of less cold weather to save his 'even larger teapot' hypothesis.

Who will possibly listen to him again if we get an 80's event over the next fortnight.

But we don't even need that!

The Christmas period is uncertain at this stage as it is possible that the High pressure could retrogress West for a time to allow a northerly airstream to briefly develop, but by the New Year, the Atlantic will return and a significant storm could hit the North and West around New Years Day.

One is wrong and so will the significant storm be , his accuracy so far is not very good. As for the rest of the forecast don't know

[peterf]

whats this two i read of?

anyone got a link to it please.

[Neilsouth]

whats this two i read of?

anyone got a link to it please.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...px?PageIndex=15

Read the top post quoted ( ian brown )

[rich1]

To be fair Rich, he could still be right even though the charts would suggest otherwise, It would need a major mild spell for Jan to become above average IF the current cold charts occurs.

I seem to remember IB's infamous posts on here regarding ''winter is over'' and the ''christmas pudding'' etc but there is nothing wrong for him having an opinion though so i don't really see what he is doing wrong but then again i have not been looking at the TWO forum for a good while now so maybe he is being more of an WUM than i first thought.

He expresses himself in certainties...like its not that mild 'might' win out, is mild 'will' win out...end of discussion

is trolling, is why he was banned here, you have to work pretty hard to get yourself in trouble on sites like these but as far as Ian Brown is concerned, its not hard to see how. Arrogant isnt the word... :lol:

[pottyprof]

As I believe, those who criticise should try to forecast.

I think that would apply now, even 2 months on....

I notice very few have actually bothered.. They still have time to criticise though.

Amazing.......

is trolling, is why he was banned here, you have to work pretty hard to get yourself in trouble on sites like these but as far as Ian Brown is concerned, its not hard to see how. Arrogant isnt the word... :lol:

Ian isn't nor wasn't banned and if you had been bothered to read the thread you would already know!!

[rich1]

Ian isn't nor wasn't banned and if you had been bothered to read the thread you would already know!!

ok, fair enough, though he seems to think so...

he deserves all the flak he gets, he could be taken more seriously if he wasnt so arrogant, because hes not without some knowledge, is just he is intransigent and the way he expresses himself is that it 'is' this, not 'might be'

as it is, his synoptics so far have been inaccurate, and no sign of the Christmas/New Year storm and the mildest january ever is looking a teensy bit shaky. i am not going to say it wont happen for 100% certain though, unlike Ian brown would be saying this progged cold spell 100% wont happen the way it is modelled to do so and that January will definitely end up abovbe average, but even if it does turn milder it is unlikely to be in the way he envisioned

He ruins his credibility by being so sweeping, and his forecast is basically a copy and paste for 2006-7 and looks like being a little off target. If I was going to be cynical I would guess he read a review of the atmospheric circumstances surrounding this last winter and the one prior to it and basically repasted it in his own words and threw in one or two 'piers corbyns' in to boot. I think Steve's throughts on it on that forum sum things up quite well...

Edited December 28, 2008 by rich1

[VillagePlank]

Well I'm looking forward to the anomalously warm January, for sure - turn that bloody heating off

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I'm looking forward to the anomalously warm January, for sure - turn that bloody heating off

One should be able to be objective to an LRF where possible. Ian Brown though for sure has made his forecast 'blinded' by AGW and has utterly ignored the signs over the last 12 months of the jet's behaviour, hemispheric pattern, PDO, ENSO etc. It is for me a very poor forecast simply because he has done it with AGW the driver.

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Since Ian hasn't been posting on here, here is what he has to say about his forecast on UKweatherword

"Yes, the forecast has gone wrong. I'm still anticipating a mild second half of the winter as the impact of Stratospheric cooling events and a flattening of the Pacific jet become the dominant factors, but we can forget about record breakingly mild months and the overall winter CET is likely to come in at around average."

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/foru...21&posts=25