Has Ian Browns Forecast Been Seen Yet? Here It Is If Not

[Great Plum]

Hold on to your hats & scarves because this Dec is going to be bitter!

Good call TEITS!

It's certainly that here today!

[stewfox]

Peter H seems to have the forcasting down to a tee for January 2009 :lol:

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Indeed, while a record warm January looks unlikely the month is by no means callable yet and may yet be average, cold or mild

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Although to be fair most forcasters on here were looking at a average to mild start to January a few weeks ago.

Edited December 30, 2008 by stewfox

[Weather-history]

An intense Polar Vortex will be in place over Greenland and the downstream High known as the Bartlett will develop over mainland Europe, becoming anomalously strong at times.

For me, this is where it went *** up at least for the first half of winter, the polar vortex has pretty much kept away from Greenland this winter so far and also the trajectory of the jet stream during December has meant that a Bartlett would struggle to get a foothold. It doesn't inspire confidence in the kind of set-up that Ian was predicting for January to come off.

Having said that it could still be a much milder second half to winter, though a bit like 2001-02

Ian has gone on the record as ruling out another 1995-96 winter, well if you are going to do that then you are never going to go for a cold winter. Too closed minded and to be honest the forecast comes across as being a little too sensationalistic, words such as "blowtorch", "record breaking" being used.

Edited January 5, 2009 by Mr_Data

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Since Ian hasn't been posting on here, here is what he has to say about his forecast on UKweatherword

"Yes, the forecast has gone wrong. I'm still anticipating a mild second half of the winter as the impact of Stratospheric cooling events and a flattening of the Pacific jet become the dominant factors,

That isn't happening, he is still being driven by AGW.

BFTP

[ANYWEATHER]

I love these outlandish, long range weather predictions, there about as good as the proverbial "chocolate teapot" :lol:

Yep thats what I wrote above, and reading that forecast, now, I can see why I wrote it! I always say credit where due on good forecasting , but that forecast he gave has done him no credit whatsover. The next time people read his LRF they will not believe a word.....[ian, if you read this learn a lesson and give up your Long range forecasts, :lol: ]

[Weather-history]

"it will be a very even larger teapot."

The final words of Ian Brown's forecast.

It has been anything but.....

And this is for me personally sums up why this forecast has gone belly-up, applying a "even larger teapot" logic to a winter that clearly isn't following the "even larger teapot" standard.

To me, Ian's forecast comes across as it will be this and then building around that rather than gathering the evidence and then drawing a conclusion, ie the winter was found guilty before any evidence was looked at, that is how it comes across to me.

In any case, what evidence that was presented hasn't supported the reality, we've just had the coldest first half winter since 1996-97.

And why "even larger teapot" logic hasn't worked? Well for a start the jet stream when active has not been following the "even larger teapot" standard of SW to NE, during the first half of December it was NW to SE.

And the trajectory for the jetstream currently is similiarish with lower pressures over southern Europe as can be seen on the ECM chart

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...t!chart.gif

You can't get the "even larger teapot" standard of Euro highs/Bartlett and the "blowtorch" SWlies in that scenario.

There is still February to come but even it was to become very mild, you could not really argue that it would be the return to the even larger teapot standard for me as there are examples of cold Decembers and Januarys followed by mild Februarys in the historical archives

eg

1944-45

1870-71

1860-61

1849-50

[Eugene]

Yes his forecast looks completely wrong i've barely recorded 10C on a few days and only very briefly(might be a sensor location problem as some official sites near me didnt record 10C on that day), blowtorch in winter means temps consistently around 14C with very mild dew points and not dropping much by night we haven't had any of that and with the current model output for February it looks a million miles away from blowtorch sw'lys.

Edited January 27, 2009 by Eugene

[Methuselah]

I'm sure IB's is not the only LRF that has gone t**s up over the years. And I do recall him making many a good call in the past. But this time he got it wrong. Haven't we all? Give him a break?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm sure IB's is not the only LRF that has gone t**s up over the years. And I do recall him making many a good call in the past. But this time he got it wrong. Haven't we all? Give him a break?

Its not the being wrong bit Pete.......its the AGW/even larger teapot forced cr@p. He was wrong for the wrong reasons.

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Its not the being wrong bit Pete.......its the AGW/even larger teapot forced cr@p. He was wrong for the wrong reasons.

BFTP

Not only that but its the "trolling" as well. A fact that more and more people have woken up to as regards to Ian Brown.

[Neilsouth]

Ian Brown is not only a troller , he forces even larger teapot down our throats as if its gospel!!!!!!!

Good riddance i say and look what the weather is doing now

[mountain shadow]

Regretibly his credibility has gone out the window like his namesake in No.10.

[rich1]

Regretibly his credibility has gone out the window like his namesake in No.10.

Yes, I think his 'even larger teapot' theory looks as dead as a doornail now. A milder february does not change my view one iota. As it happens, think this february and maybe March as well could well turn out to be pretty cold overall, with the effects of La Nina becoming more pronounced in early spring too

Suspect we could be in a new cycle now, the 'post modern' era if you will...

[Mondy]

even larger teapot - a most loathesome phrase, which all the journo's like to use.

Antique Winter would be nice though :lol:

[Neilsouth]

Well as we look at the situation thus far, clearly a disappointing level of accuracy with the December CET likely to come in at around 1C lower than my forecast and although largely blocked, not the general synoptic set-up I was envisiging.

The signal for blocking, at least at mid-latitude is continuing into the first third of this month and that will scupper my ambitious call for a record month, though with upstream signals strongly supporting a +ve AO,NAO set-up, we could be in for the sort of zonality that persists for several weeks and that could still lead to an above average January and if that does happen; then an above average February is also very likely, as per the even larger teapot statistics.

So far, it's a well done to Net Weather and Eastern US poster Glacier Point, who has thus far pretty much nailed the pattern.

He was still sticking with his even larger teapot rubbish in mid jan for feb , its wrong AGAIN!!!!!. I'm sure he will use the even larger teapot forecast for every year

[Thundery wintry showers]

I do think there is a sound basis behind his "modern winter" theory. Winters these days tend to follow closer to his "modern winter" synoptic outline than they used to in most earlier decades (though there were exceptions such as 1902-06, the Januarys of the 1920s, and the period 1971-76).

But his mistake is insisting that winters cannot deviate from his "modern winter" theory. It's a simple fact of meteorology; the weather varies either side of the average, and this year we are getting a bias towards colder than average. Also, changes in synoptics are not guaranteed to be irreversible- there are many factors that govern how atmospheric circulation plays out, and there is no guarantee, for instance, that as the Arctic warms up and the ice melts, it will bring about a continued strengthening of an increasingly northerly tracking jet. Many recent peer-reviewed articles have indeed suggested that not all of the recent changes in synoptics can be explained by Northern Hemisphere warming alone, and that natural cycles/solar forcing have probably contributed as well.

[Weather-history]

thats what winter will be, always will be from now on, similar to 06/07, even larger teapot, i dont expect anything else in a uk winter forecast

I remember saying this was twaddle.

Well I was proved correct.... not that I'm blowing my own trumpet

I notice Ian hasn't produced or at least I've not seen one, a summer forecast for this coming season.

Edited May 28, 2009 by Mr_Data

[MR EXTREMES]

I remember saying this was twaddle.

Well I was proved correct.... not that I'm blowing my own trumpet

I notice Ian hasn't produced or at least I've not seen one, a summer forecast for this coming season.

yeah if i where him i would not bother lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I remember saying this was twaddle.

Well I was proved correct.... not that I'm blowing my own trumpet

I notice Ian hasn't produced or at least I've not seen one, a summer forecast for this coming season.

I think the jet stream has remained 2000 miles too far south. A southward moving jet...now where did I read that....

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

Well, my 'stab in the dark' is based on progressive elimination of heat (heat=energy, not temperature) that will have a knock on effect for NH winters until, at least 2015. I base this on the work done, and some published in the LI thread (see my signature)

How's that for sticking your head above the parapet?

Here's the chart ...

You should note, of course, that the LI does not predict below average temperatures, in any fashion, but, rather a reduction in the degree of above averageness; ie by 2015, we should be feeling winters rather like 1980 across the world. Whether or not they affect the UK is up for question - it could just simply be ultra cold in Moscow with the no feeding easterly ...

Edited June 13, 2009 by VillagePlank

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We have another Alistair Campbell in the making. What Spin!!!!

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The fact remains that the winter forecast was very wrong and purely based around an inflexible fixation and rather bizarre infatuation with modern winterism.

Irrespective of the fact that Feb did not follow the expected total freeze route, the winter was still spectacularly different to the one that Ian predicted. If the hale factor is now suddenly proclaimed as such a great player in making the winter a 'one-off' colder one than why forecast a potentially record breaking warm january beforehand?? Clearly the goalposts have been moved in line to try to justify an incorect forecast. Better to just admit it was plain wrong surely - that in itself is no big deal.

We all know that there has been a cyclical tendency for the jet stream to have moved north over the last couple of decades but Ians love affair with the northerly jet stream probably has its roots better served in the climate change threads amongst the ranks of those who see a permanent change in the weather pattern due to AGW.

I would repeat, I don't think that getting a forecast wrong in itself is a big deal, and I would stick up for anyone who gets unfair criticism in terms of making predictions etc that don't materialise- whether it be around a short term weather pattern forecast or like David Dilley on the climate threads who has got flak for producing a new alternative natural thesis for climate change that isn't based around an unhealthy preoccupation with a stylised meteorological 'pet' (i.e the even larger teapot).

But this forecast has been blatantly and deliberately paraded around such a personal fad - which it is recorded and well known that the author has previously taken much determination in repeating as oft as possible to achieve a response. The attempted explanations now are very much a case of making things up as they go along - presumably to provoke further responses (to which some of us are already duly obliging ).

Hence it is harder to have much sympathy in this case.

[Weather-history]

What I did allude to in my winter forecast was the Hale winter phenomenon - and that appears to have been a factor in what actually happened and I would I look at it in terms of we had by far the mildest hale winter ever recorded.

Ian

I re-read your forecast because I don't recall you mentioning the Hale winter phenomenon. Where does it mention Hale winter in your forecast?

[Weather-history]

Irrespective of the fact that Feb did not follow the expected total freeze route, the winter was still spectacularly different to the one that Ian predicted. If the hale factor is now suddenly proclaimed as such a great player in making the winter a 'one-off' colder one than why forecast a potentially record breaking warm january beforehand?? Clearly the goalposts have been moved in line to try to justify an incorect forecast. Better to just admit it was plain wrong surely - that in itself is no big deal.

Agree

There is nothing in that forecast mentioning the Hale winter at all.

The forecast was wayout on a lot of things. From jetstream trajectory, the assumption of another stratospheric cooling when in fact there was a record stratospheric warming event... it was horribly wrong.

Nothing wrong with that but to try and say you alluded to such things that you never did, well alluded is not the word, deluded is.

Edited June 21, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Agree

There is nothing in that forecast mentioning the Hale winter at all.

The forecast was wayout on a lot of things. From jetstream trajectory, the assumption of another stratospheric cooling when in fact there was a record stratospheric warming event... it was horribly wrong.

Nothing wrong with that but to try and say you alluded to such things that you never did, well alluded is not the word, deluded is.

Yup indeed

I can understand factoring in caution about the stratosphere - but last winter demonstrated that weather patterns,telecommunications don't fit into Ian's forecasting tramlines. An individual season has to be taken on its own merits and trying to understand the factors that are evident or might develop through the course of the forecasting period concerned.

That isn't easy by any means, but when based on such rigidly preconceived ideas than they are going to stab you in the back and go wrong soomer or later.

Edited June 21, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection