Has Ian Browns Forecast Been Seen Yet? Here It Is If Not

[Paul Sherman]

I will of course make a forecast, at this stage it is impossible to say what that will be.

The fact remains however that I have defined 'the modern winter' and lead the way in determining a persistent northerly jet in the winter leading to High pressure at Northern latitutudes in the Summer months leading to poor Summers for Britain.

I haven't produced a Summer forecast - my last two were very accurate - because I have been working on my book about the modern era.

I think that when we look at the Winter 08/09 synoptics we can see that it was not really a departure from the general modern winter theme;

It was soon all over after that as the jet returned from the NW. I would suggest that it would be exceptional if we were to get a winter as cold as 2008/09 again if heights are so low to the NW and N again - and don't forget these factors are almost default in the modern era- and even so winter 2008/09 was milder than SIX out of the ten winters between 1977 and 1987.

I actually think it is quite sad how you are obviously so fixated with this term it is having an effect on your sanity - A very sad set of cicumstances to see you decline in this way

Have you thought of getting medical help Ian ??

[YAZ]

I know you were wishing to illustrate how you saw the winter of 2008-2009 Ian but talk about selective chart picking!

I don't really think there was anything selective about it John, it was the highlights and lowlights of what was most interesting both in terms of what actually happened and the christmas pudding.

I'm not trying to deflect from my erroneous forecast - but please let us look at what actually happened and the general situation - if you are looking at it from a viewpoint of wanting colder weather - we were very fortunate to get what unfolded given the general low heights to the N and NW.

I think there's a vacancy for Ian at Westminster should he chose to talk like that

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ian,

As I say, I think there is some truth behind your "modern winter" theory but you do seem unrealistically inflexible about it. I agree completely with John- I think you have picked out very selective charts.

For instance, how about 1978/79, the "modern winter" was fully in evidence around the 7th January with low heights to the NW and high pressure in the wrong place:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790107.gif

...and by midmonth we were under high pressure which was in the wrong place for snowy weather and the Scandinavian High kept out too far east by an Icelandic trough:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790116.gif

...and into February 1979... too much of a slight HP to the south and fairly northerly jet:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790203.gif

The point being, you can selectively pick charts from almost any winter to support the "modern winter" theory (I chose 1978/79 because if that was a modern winter then snow lovers have nothing to worry about lol!)

Back to 2008/09 and here's the other side of the coin:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120081201.gif

Atlantic block extending to Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120081204.gif

Jet continued to take quite a southerly track so when the Atlantic finally broke through there was some snow for some, especially north-east England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120090205.gif

Southerly tracking jet, high pressure to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120090212.gif

12th February and although there is no true Greenland high, heights are still high to the north and north-west.

I'm afraid I think it's a big stretch to call 2008/09 representative of the "modern winter". Throughout that winter I was making note of the lack of "spoiling" cyclogenesis to the NW that has characterised so many other recent winters. It may not have been up there with the classic all-time snowy winters but it was certainly akin to some of the more "average" type winters prior to 1988, both synoptically and in terms of outcome.

[PB22]

I actually think it is quite sad how you are obviously so fixated with this term it is having an effect on your sanity - A very sad set of cicumstances to see you decline in this way

Have you thought of getting medical help Ian ??

I agree Paul. It very sad to witness such a thing and I hope Ian seeks the medical help he clearly needs soon. I used to have respect for Ian, but something, somewhere has changed and for the worse.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Again, I would ask people to look at the charts I have posted and compare them to the already defined 'classic' winters - there was no stable Northern blocking and to get what we actually got in terms of overall CET was down to the persistence of low heights in Central Europe - it will be many a year before that happens again.

Ian this even larger teapot does it only affect the UK? I mean there was widespread and severe cold in the NH last winter in line with the Hale Cycle which I and others indeed DID mention.

The jet was way south last winter and although the calendar monthly CET were not spectacular there were lengthy periods of very impressive cold. Mr D can quickly highlight that if necessary.

I am willing to stand against you NOW and say that if you forecast a very 'modern' blowtorch winter you will be wrong again. The jetstream I admit and accept had migrated further north [i remember SF discussing it a couple of years back too] but it isn't a permanent feature and it is now on a southward march.

What made your forecast wrong wasn't the Hale Cycle it was your misguided belief that AGW has contorted the weather pattern so much that nothing can ever change the set up. Well clearly last winter you were proven wrong.

The mildest ever Hale winter? Where the UK or the NH? Do yourself a favour and look wider and further afield...there's more than the UK. There are many many places that will show you that it was a real Hale Winter.

BFTP

Edited June 27, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Neilsouth]

If you say christmas pudding or even larger teapot one more time i'm going to shoot you lol!

[chionomaniac]

Fred, my view is that Western Europe has been the area that has seen it's climate most affected during the modern era with the cyclogenesis around Iceland and Svelbard inhibiting Northern blocking - don't forget not only was last winter a Hale winter we supposedly saw one of the most significant Stratospheric warmings in years - many factors should have been in favour a much colder CET than was actually arrived at.

Of course there were areas in the Northern Hemisphere that were cold, but our winter was not for the reasons that are set out as defining the modern winter - the general public of course have a view that it was very cold but again, only because the modern era has totally changed perceptions and expectations.

If my memory serves me correctly, last winter saw very little cyclogenesis around Iceland and the tropospheric conditions mirrored the stratospheric conditions quite closely.

The only time that I can remember any cyclogenesis around Iceland was around mid to late January, before the impacts of the record breaking SSW struck. At that time the stratosphere was at almost record cold and the polar vortex extremely strong, so no surprise there. Once the SSW had occurred (note, for the first time in a combined westerly QBO and solar minimum), we indeed got our easterly cold spell. However the daughter vortices from the split polar vortex were subsequently so positioned to keep is in a reduced westerly jet stream pattern which had complex knock on pattern to global angular momentum and with the La Nina, a further weakening of the jet stream. Certainly no strong cyclogenesis there. And in fact the westerly QBO will have contributed in preventing the SSW propagating, and creating high level blocking of the troposphere, due to the complex interaction of stratospheric clockwise and counter-clockwise high level winds. All that we were left with was an extremely weak NH jet stream probably the exact opposite of what a so called modern winter would be about!

c

[ANYWEATHER]

Ian, as I said last week, I respect your views but do not share this "inuendo" of christmas pudding. But, the worlds big enough for all kinds of views! But what about a modern day Summer, Autumn, Spring....? Peoples misconceptoin of Summers in this country from media hype etc is that summers will become hot and dry ,winters mild and wet, well thats not strictly true is it? The Summers of the last two years will prove that as well as the Winter just gone. Just look at the Summers of 1911 and 1912, two back to back Summers which were starkly different, 1911 was one of the hottest driest Summers of the 20th century, and 1912 was one of the coldest and wettest. There will always be variations in our weather in this country and there will always be some big surprizes for us too....

[Weather-history]

even so winter 2008/09 was milder than SIX out of the ten winters between 1977 and 1987.

Something I pointed out earlier in the year is that there have been a lot of talk in the past about the cold winters of the 1960s, winter 2008-09 was actually colder than 5 of those winters for the CET and was equal to two of those winters of the 1960s.

Winter 1962-63: -0.3

Winter 1968-69: 3.2

Winter 1964-65: 3.4

Winter 1963-64: 3.5

Winter 1967-68: 3.5

Winter 2008-09: 3.5

Winter 1961-62: 3.6

Winter 1965-66: 4.4

Winter 1959-60: 4.6

Winter 1960-61: 4.9

Winter 1966-67: 5.1

It was colder than 8 of the winters of the 1990s

6 of the winters of the 1980s

7 of the winters of the 1970s

5 of the winters of the 1950s

5 of the winters of the 1940s

8 of the winters of the 1930s

9 of the winters of the 1920s

9 of the winters of the 1910s

6 of the winters of the 1900s

Note the period 1910s, 1920s and 1930s. Only 4 colder winters than 2008-09 in that period.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

And just in case, Ian is using the Manley value

It was colder than 8 of the winters of the 1990s

6 of the winters of the 1980s

7 of the winters of the 1970s

4 of the winters of the 1960s

5 of the winters of the 1950s

5 of the winters of the 1940s

8 of the winters of the 1930s

9 of the winters of the 1920s

9 of the winters of the 1910s

5 of the winters of the 1900s

[Solar Cycles]

And just in case, Ian is using the Manley value

It was colder than 8 of the winters of the 1990s

6 of the winters of the 1980s

7 of the winters of the 1970s

4 of the winters of the 1960s

5 of the winters of the 1950s

5 of the winters of the 1940s

8 of the winters of the 1930s

9 of the winters of the 1920s

9 of the winters of the 1910s

5 of the winters of the 1900s

Thank you Mr Data, time to close the case on the even larger teapot myth now. Of course Ian being Ian, he can't let this freakish obsession go. So it's best to ignore his obsessive ramblings, and let the facts speak for themselves!!

[johnholmes]

And just in case, Ian is using the Manley value

It was colder than 8 of the winters of the 1990s

6 of the winters of the 1980s

7 of the winters of the 1970s

4 of the winters of the 1960s

5 of the winters of the 1950s

5 of the winters of the 1940s

8 of the winters of the 1930s

9 of the winters of the 1920s

9 of the winters of the 1910s

5 of the winters of the 1900s

interesting data there Mr D

how about you put the 2008-2009 winter in the list of ALL winters from say 1910 to 2008-09 or is that too big a task.

That way then neither Ian nor anyone else can tinker, shall we say, with its the mildest/warmest in x out of y years-the data would be there for all to see?

many thanks if you can Kevin

[Weather-history]

interesting data there Mr D

how about you put the 2008-2009 winter in the list of ALL winters from say 1910 to 2008-09 or is that too big a task.

Just comparing the Hadley CET value for winter 2008-09 with that list, 72 winters from 1909-1910 to 2007-08 were milder than 2008-09

So it was in the top 30 of coldest winters for the last 100 years.

[johnholmes]

Just comparing the Hadley CET value for winter 2008-09 with that list, 72 winters from 1909-1910 to 2007-08 were milder than 2008-09

So it was in the top 30 of coldest winters for the last 100 years.

tks very much for that

one of top coldest in 30 years over 100 years-must be statistically significant I would have thought; any statisticians around to debunk or otherwise that idea from me?

Edited June 30, 2009 by johnholmes

[Weather-history]

tks very much for that

one of top coldest in 30 years over 100 years-must be statistically significant I would have thought; any statisticians around to debunk or otherwise that idea from me?

The impression I get is that Ian was implying that it was a "mild" cold winter ie if it happened 20 or 30 years ago it would have been colder.

The problem with that kind of logic is that I could argue that very same point if it was 70 years ago. There were only 4 colder winters in 30 years from 1909-10 to 1938-39 than 2008-09.

The fact is winter 2008-09 was notably colder for recent history, it wasn't especially cold overall though as a whole. But that puts into perspective just how mild the winters of the 1910s, 1920 and 1930s were overall.

29th November 2008 - 13th February 2009 CET was about 2.8

How does that compare to past such periods? Well here at the CETs and the years. The colder CETs are in bold.

2007-08: 5.9

2006-07: 6.3

2005-06: 4.1

2004-05: 5.8

2003-04: 5.6

2002-03: 5.0

2001-02: 5.4

2000-01: 4.8

1999-00: 5.4

1998-99: 5.3

1997-98: 5.7

1996-97: 3.3

1995-96: 3.1

1994-95: 5.8

1993-94: 5.1

1992-93: 4.8

1991-92: 4.6

1990-91: 2.9

1989-90: 5.9

1988-89: 6.8

1987-88: 5.2

1986-87: 3.7

1985-86: 3.9

1984-85: 3.0

1983-84: 4.8

1982-83: 4.7

1981-82: 2.5

1980-81: 5.1

1979-80: 4.5

1978-79: 1.6

1977-78: 4.1

1976-77: 3.1

1975-76: 5.1

1974-75: 7.0

1973-74: 5.3

1972-73: 5.2

1971-72: 4.9

1970-71: 4.2

1969-70: 3.3

1968-69: 3.8

1967-68: 4.0

1966-67: 5.0

1965-66: 4.1

1964-65: 3.4

1963-64: 3.4

1962-63: -0.1

1961-62: 3.8

1960-61: 4.5

1959-60: 4.9

1958-59: 3.0

1957-58: 3.2

1956-57: 5.8

1955-56: 3.7

1954-55: 4.6

1953-54: 4.2

1952-53: 2.8

1951-52: 3.9

1950-51: 2.9

1949-50: 5.0

1948-49: 5.2

1947-48: 5.5

1946-47: 2.1

1945-46: 4.5

1944-45: 2.9

1943-44: 5.5

1942-43: 5.8

1941-42: 2.9

1940-41: 2.4

1939-40: 1.2

1938-39: 4.6

1937-38: 4.7

1936-37: 5.3

1935-36: 3.0

1934-35: 6.2

1933-34: 3.0

1932-33: 4.5

1931-32: 5.2

1930-31: 3.8

1929-30: 5.3

1928-29: 2.5

1927-28: 4.0

1926-27: 3.9

1925-26: 3.9

1924-25: 6.2

1923-24: 4.3

1922-23: 5.9

1921-22: 4.6

1920-21: 4.8

1919-20: 5.3

1918-19: 4.1

1917-18: 4.1

1916-17: 1.2

1915-16: 6.0

1914-15: 4.5

1913-14: 5.2

1912-13: 5.6

1911-12: 4.5

1910-11: 4.5

1909-10: 4.0

1908-09: 3.8

1907-08: 3.7

1906-07: 3.1

1905-06: 4.7

1904-05: 4.0

1903-04: 3.7

1902-03: 5.0

1901-02: 3.3

1900-01: 4.7

1899-00: 2.7

Edited June 30, 2009 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

yes I've been puzzled for a long time why Ian has this 'crusade' about the 'even larger teapot'. If he used a phrase like winters recently or produced data that he could show that winter 0x-0y is milder than the previous 10, 20 or whatever years, I would not, nor would many others I suspect have a problem. Its his insistence that its not possible to have a 'cold' winter by Met O 'cold' definition again. Then when we do to say its a one off. How the heck does he know its a one off- I wish I did and so does every main forecast centre-they would make tens of millions of pounds.

silly really to get so fixated about one thing.

but then, hey ho, who am I to talk about others.

again tks Kevin for the stats-copied into my weather must keep data.

Edited June 30, 2009 by johnholmes

[ANYWEATHER]

And just in case, Ian is using the Manley value

It was colder than 8 of the winters of the 1990s

6 of the winters of the 1980s

7 of the winters of the 1970s

4 of the winters of the 1960s

5 of the winters of the 1950s

5 of the winters of the 1940s

8 of the winters of the 1930s

9 of the winters of the 1920s

9 of the winters of the 1910s

5 of the winters of the 1900s

When you put it like you have, it goes to show it was a cold winter...thanks Mr Data, Ian and his even larger teapot, PAH! I hope he puts these stats into his book!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed- and before he comes back with arguments about synoptics I'll be quick to direct any such suspicions to my previous post which dealt with the synoptics, which I think were rather different to most winters of the past 20 years.

It was also notable that for much of the time our air sources weren't particularly cold yet gave many places a fair amount of snow. It is easy to forget that this was also the case for most of the snow events of earlier decades.

I'm not inferring that 2008/09 means the end of the mild snowless "modern winter" as we know it, but rather that things are somewhat less clear-cut than Ian (Brown) appears to think they are.

[Methuselah]

Having scrolled through all of this, and being old - I do believe that there is something in Ian's 'Modern Winter' hypothesis. (much as I don't like the term!)

I recall the winters of the '60s, '70s, 80s, 1991, '96 and 2001 quite well - and IMO, this winter was not on the same scale...And, added to that, it was the first in EIGHT years...IMO, something has changed. I don't know what; but I think it has?? :lol:

If you pull back from the 'crusading' attitude, Ian, you may find that a few more peeps will listen??

[Iceberg]

Completely agree Pete, a even larger teapot does not mean no more cold which is where Ian rather lets himself down. But before we disregard the even larger teapot thoery I think we need at least 2 or 3 cold winters, statisically one cold winter following on from a very mild winter, really doesn't prove anything.

[Weather-history]

I recall the winters of the '60s, '70s, 80s, 1991, '96 and 2001 quite well - and IMO, this winter was not on the same scale...

Interesting observation because what does that say about the winters of 1910s,1920s and 1930s? You don't think it was on the same scale as the above winters yet the winter just gone would have been the 5th coldest winter in that 30 year period.

Edited July 2, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Methuselah]

Interesting observation because what does that say about the winters of 1910s,1920s and 1930s? If you don't think it was on the same scale as the above winters because the winter just gone would have been the 5th coldest winter in that 30 year period.

That this year's winter was nothing out of the ordinary - when seen as a one-off?

And that the '10s - '30s were mild. :ph34r:

[PersianPaladin]

It is clearly fruitless trying to create a correllation between CET air temperature and a "even larger teapot" scenario. Blocking highs establishing themselves over the UK under a strong sub-arctic jet have proved themselves to bring long periods of cold, albeit under inversion conditions. Cold air has also been known to become recirculated in cols between strong longwaves in northern Europe and ridges in the mid-Atlantic.

If we are to define any sort of modern-winter, then I would argue that its certainly not by temperature. I think it could be more down to certain regions of the UK getting a lot less in the way of snow in the past twenty years than the average statistical representation for a 20 year period in the representative sample. It would be interesting to look at "snow days" in say, north-east england in the past 20 years and then do a correllation co-efficient with other 20 year periods perhaps?

Its more down to less bite in the synoptics that deliver snow to certain parts. North-easterlies and easterlies seem to be less potent and more short-lived because of secondary cyclogenesis in the subpoles near Svalbard. There is certainly a case to correllate extra mobility in the westerly momentum at that latitude.

Edited July 2, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[sundog]

I pretty much agree with what ian is saying and i do belive in the even larger teapot,since 1987 our winters have changed alot. Since 1987 there is the odd exception like the likes of the 95/96 winter. I think last winter has been blown out of porportion,i think when you strip it down it was really just shall we say a colder version of the even larger teapot. There were still no real major cold snaps and the month of Jan was yet again another disappiontment with little in the way of snow. The first week of that month was cold but after that it was the same old story really. What saved last winter somewhat was that cold spell at the start of Feb but i was still disappionted by it,snow turning to rain,rain back to snow,snow back to rain-a typical even larger teapot cold spell farce imo. Of course some places did very well but if you take the BI as a whole for that cold spell i thought it was nothing special and not even that cold. Last winter was of course a colder winter then recently but that doesnt prove a thing and for all we know next winter we could be right back to sq one again. Im not saying our winters will never go back to what they were but since 1987 we really have been stuck in a rut.

[Solar Cycles]

I think we know from re-analysis that the inter-war period saw generally mild winters, but the christmas pudding from 1987 onwards has been something exceptional; the greatest change in our climate since the end of the little ice age.

The story of winter 08/09 was, as PP alludes to, mid-latitude High pressure - the modern cold - of course there have been winters like this before but my contention is that stable High latitude blocking, such that we saw prior to the christmas pudding, was absent. For a winter that came in with a slightly below average CET, there was a considerable lack of northerlies and HP to the W/NW - I maintain the factors that are at work here and it is cyclogenesis in the Iceland and Svalbard regions.

Ask the ordinary person what they thought of last winter and they would say 'bitter', 'very cold' - of course it wasn't but the christmas pudding has changed people's perceptions. I'm sure that people could have argued after 95/96 that some sort of pattern change may be on the way - but the winter months from Jan 1997 onwards to the millenium would prove to be exceptionally mild as the christmas pudding entered a new gear.

External teleconnections excluded my money for the next few winters would be on persistence of the same old situation to our North and North West and low heights not being so prevalent over the continent as they were in 08/09.

I nearly choked on my shiraz when I saw this! The greatest change to our climate since the end of the LIA, you are having a laugh surely? Show me the stats to back this wild claim up please!! :lol: