Has Ian Browns Forecast Been Seen Yet? Here It Is If Not

[Weather-history]

I suggest you check out Philip Eden's Climate UK site and compare CET returns from post 1987 to the period before that - not just for the winter months but for all year round.

I don't think anyone can argue against the last 20 years have got warmer, however how you can claim this is a virtual permanent change as you were doing on UKweatherworld after only 20 years of data which is zip in climatological terms is beyond my comprehension. Its virtually unprovable.

[Methuselah]

If the climate should revert to a cooler regime, as it did after the 1930s, would we see the Postmodern Winter? B)

[Solar Cycles]

I don't think anyone can argue against the last 20 years have got warmer, however how you can claim this is a virtual permanent change as you were doing on UKweatherworld after only 20 years of data which is zip in climatological terms is beyond my comprehension. Its virtually unprovable.

This is my biggest bugbear with Ian Brown!!!! Ian how can you base your theory on 20 years of data, and come to the conclusion that the climate as changed forever? It's absurd, even the most ardent warmists would struggle to agree with that! And why do you refuse to engage with Mr Data, on the facts that he as presented to you, to disprove your flawed theory!!

[Solar Cycles]

I think we have to consider the broader climate change factors when considering whether the change will be permanent - the rapid decline of the polar ice field and the ever Northward progression of the PFJ, with the bottling up of the cold air at Northern latitudes.

Most climate experts agree on continued warming for the mid-latitudes to levels never seen before by the middle of this century, time as ever will tell, but we will that the late 1980s was the beginning of the christmas pudding and the era that will become the normality for our children and grandchildren.

Talk about flogging a dead horse! Ian I wish I had your crystal ball, I would be a very rich man by now!! By the way I'm a mental health nurse, if you need your medication regime altering, I'll be more than happy to refer you!!!

That was tongue in cheek Ian, but your obsession with the christmas pudding will be the downfall of you!!

Edited July 3, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred, my view is that Western Europe has been the area that has seen it's climate most affected during the christmas pudding with the cyclogenesis around Iceland and Svelbard inhibiting Northern blocking - don't forget not only was last winter a Hale winter we supposedly saw one of the most significant Stratospheric warmings in years - many factors should have been in favour a much colder CET than was actually arrived at.

Of course there were areas in the Northern Hemisphere that were cold, but our winter was not for the reasons that are set out as defining the even larger teapot - the general public of course have a view that it was very cold but again, only because the christmas pudding has totally changed perceptions and expectations.

Ian

Isn't there past records showing how Western Europe can and has probbably been isolated in pattern change in the past? Quotes of the Medieval Warm period being 'localised' and also the Younger Dryas Iceage? Like I say I believe we had the jetstream moving north discussion on this forum with SF and yourself and many others and I think that there was something very much in that. However, it is my assertion that this would be cyclical and reversible and we are starting to see that before our very own eyes.

The 'even larger teapot' did become annoying BUT indeed the set up did become the form horse. Apart from ice ages not everywhere would be cold but overall it was a very cold NH winter. We in the UK did much better than of late but for example large parts of Europe were absolutely perishingly cold with extended snow season, Canada / US had mighty cold and very lengthy winters with temps and longevity beyond the norm.

Thanks for response though.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

On a more global scale, I think we have passed through a period of relatively mild n.h. winters and have been getting into a colder regime that has sharpened since the 2007 ice-season near-meltdown (and possibly due to feedback from that event, in part at least). I do see all of these trends as being more subdued than some of their various proponents, the warm was never that astounding and this recent hemispheric cold is a rather pale comparison to the heart of the late 1970s for example, or anything from the 19th century.

What muddies the waters to some extent is that there is a persistent SST and ice-free anomaly near Svalbard which was beginning to lose the struggle last winter, but which will remain an obstacle for a return to really classic winter conditions in Europe, because of its tendency to weaken arctic high pressure and strengthen any sort of lows that wander up that way.

Meanwhile where we are seeing a definite sign of ongoing cooling is in northern Canada (inland and south into the prairies and northern plains states). There has been a persistent trend to below normal temperatures around 100 W that extends at times as far south as KS-OK although the past month has reversed that southern sector.

I've always believed that the very long term natural trend at present is incrementally upwards, with the AGW signal of whatever magnitude (I lean towards a conservative estimate of +0.5 C) superimposed, so that shorter-term natural cooling cycles are fighting a battle against that very slow upward creep of the baseline. The natural components should begin to head slowly down later this century, and we don't really know the future course of the human signal, whatever its actual magnitude. All in all this suggests that natural variability should continue to drive decade to decade climate, I for one don't think the circulation is "broken" because of greenhouse gas loading, I just think that the milder winter period in the UK from say 1988 to 2008 was one of those random statistical flukes padded slightly by the human factor, but living in North America it is pretty easy to keep a grip on the reality of natural variability, during that stretch we had several very cold winters that were within a few tenths of a degree of all-time monthly records (like Jan 1994).

If the hemispheric circulation machine is broken, then it seems that we know where to fix it -- somewhere southeast of Iceland. That's where it is leaking a bit of oil.

By the way, I have a summer LRF on the go, but some may not have spotted it, because I posted it in the storm section rather than the general discussion thread. I haven't even thought about next winter yet, but UK cold winters tend to cluster. :o

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we know from re-analysis that the inter-war period saw generally mild winters, but the modern era from 1987 onwards has been something exceptional; the greatest change in our climate since the end of the little ice age.

The story of winter 08/09 was, as PP alludes to, mid-latitude High pressure - the modern cold - of course there have been winters like this before but my contention is that stable High latitude blocking, such that we saw prior to the modern era, was absent. For a winter that came in with a slightly below average CET, there was a considerable lack of northerlies and HP to the W/NW - I maintain the factors that are at work here and it is cyclogenesis in the Iceland and Svalbard regions.

I don't think that was true of winter 08/09 at all. True, mid latitude blocking was certainly the cause of the cold weather in late December 2008 and early January 2009. However, the first half of December 2008, and more especially the first half of February 2009, had persistent high pressure to the W and NW and frequent northerly winds. They were often not sourced especially far north, but a trawl through the synoptics of winters 1978-87 reveals that this was often true in those winters as well.

I'm pretty certain there is some truth in Ian's "modern winter" theory but it isn't as black and white as he is implying. Rather, in recent winters it has got warmer, the jet has tended to track further north with more cyclogenesis around Iceland. The current generation of climate models strongly suggest further warming over the 21st century and tentatively suggest a continued poleward movement of the jet. Therefore, unless AGW is being significantly overestimated, or major natural forcings come into play and offset AGW, we can expect winters to get gradually milder and less snowy, partly due to temperature rises and partly due to less favourable synoptics. As 2008/09 illustrated, fairly cold snowy winters with a southerly tracking jet are not things of the past yet, but they may continue to become less intense and less frequent with time.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Therefore, unless AGW is being significantly overestimated, or major natural forcings come into play and offset AGW, we can expect winters to get gradually milder and less snowy, partly due to temperature rises and partly due to less favourable synoptics. As 2008/09 illustrated, fairly cold snowy winters with a southerly tracking jet are not things of the past yet, but they may continue to become less intense and less frequent with time.

That last paragraph Ian, I reckon we have seen/been through the less intense period? I mean one can hope that they don't get any milder!!? Lol.

Roger

I missed it but will track it down. I didn't do one for Spring or Summer as had a few personal issues now resolved/past [well the funerals have been and gone and so you see what I mean but I did mention what I thought would be the recurring summer pattern.

Re your teasing note at the end...I have briefly looked ahead too and the warm bits could be the cold bits this winter

Also it is relevant MO to point out that you mentioned many times in the past regarding the wandering of the mNP and that could have 'pulled' / shifted weather patterns along with it.

Lastly, I firmly now of the opinion of a shift southwards of the jetstream and that will become more evident over the next decade or so.

BFTP