Major Hurricane Paloma

[Somerset Squall]

The seventeenth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the Atlantic, to the east of Honduras. Initial intensity is 25kts, and favourable conditions of low shear and warm sea temps should promote steady intensification. The NHC forecast 17L to become a hurricane and there is even a chance this one could become a major hurricane as the environment is excellent. The depression is drifting northwards but a northeastward motion is expected to occur in a day or so as a trough swings by and picks up the system. However, this scenario is not set in stone, and it is possible the trough will leave 17L behind which would leave the cyclone in a weak steering environment. Jamaica and Cuba in particular need to keep a close eye 0n the potentially rapidly developing 17L.

[Cookie]

from this is could make cat 1

and sat image

taken from here http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...at.html#a_topad

[Roger J Smith]

It has been a while, hasn't it?

This would be Paula, unless I missed it earlier.

[Iceberg]

Recon are in atm and with Flight winds of 40Kts this could be upgrade to TS a bit later, minimum pressure is 1003mb.

A Cuba hit looks very likely now probably in 3-4 days time. With the models HWRF and GFDL predicting a major hurricane, HWRF just a CAT 4 although this is probably a little generous.

[Roger J Smith]

Oh okay, it is Paloma, then.

Seems to be gearing up to confuse all the models -- at this time of year they almost always head NNE then NE, seems that the retrograde tendency ends with October, at least 90% of the time.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have TS Paloma, with winds now at 35kts. It cannot be stressed enough how dangerous Paloma could become in the next few days. Shear is low, sea temps are high (and the very warm waters extend far below the surface) and outflow is very good, so some significant intensification is forecast, perhaps rapid. The official forecast shows a peak of 90kts, but this could be a little low, indeed the chances are increasing for Paloma to become a major hurricane. Remarks have been made by Wunderground how Paloma may behave similarly to Major Hurricane Michelle of 2001, which formed around the same time of year and had environmental conditions similar to Paloma. Paloma's forecast track is also very similar to Michelle's:

It now appears more likely that Paloma will be deep enough to be dragged northeastwards by the approaching trough forecast to move across the Gulf Of Mexico, and the Cayman Islands along with Cuba will probably be affected by Paloma this weekend. There is still speculation about just how strong Paloma may be at this point, but I think a mjor hurricane is more than possible.

After the potential crossing of Cuba, Paloma should continue northeastwards into some high shear near the Bahamas, which will cause rapid weakening.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates somerset

Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PALOMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Honduras

probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

Nicaragua

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puerto Lempira (15.3 N, 83.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

700 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS

NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

PALOMA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT

70 MILES...115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE

NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES

POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...15.3 N...82.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[londonsnow]

seems to be organising and intensifying quite rapidly.

courtesy of the noaa..

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...75

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, there is some impressive outflow at the moment which is really helping Paloma spin up quickly, intensity now at 55kts. Good banding and a CDO feature have set up Paloma for some possible rapid intensification. We may see an eye develop shortly, and Paloma has 48hrs to intensify in a low shear, warm ocean heat content environment.

[Cookie]

new update looks good this system!

Storm Alert issued at 6 Nov, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PALOMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

The eye has emerged and Paloma is now a 70kt, cat 1 hurricane. There is some explosive convection surrounding the increasingly well defined eye, it appears Paloma is bombing right now with pressure currently at 987mb and falling rapidly. How low will she go?

[londonsnow]

as expected paloma has rapidly grown. i have to say i'm surprised we have hurricane status so quickly, but it will be v interesting to follow this one over the next 24 hours, and i hope the threatened areas are hopefully taking necessary precautions

[Cookie]

how many times has cuba been hit this year?

[Somerset Squall]

how many times has cuba been hit this year?

The country has had 3 direct landfalls, from Fay, Gustav and Ike. Looks like Paloma will be the fourth.

Interesting piece of trivia from Jeff Masters' blog over at Wunderground:

This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

Will Paloma break that record for 2008? If current trends continue then that record may well fall.

[toggerob]

Rapid intensification around the Northern quater of Paloma at the moment, NOAA predicts the storm to be CAT2 by the end of tomorrow.

[londonsnow]

cat 3 by saturday according to the noaa

[Iceberg]

She has picked up nicely(yesterday).Rather a pretty neat little cane.

Overnight not much has happened, the eye has probably temp clouded over, pressure is still at the 986 mark and winds are around the 65Kt mark (according to latest recon, although they are still in and might find something stronger in the NE quad).

Still she is very tidy and tight and small and could likely spin up again today to a stronger CAT

[kippure]

Thats the weirdest direction ive seen a hurricane take in that area..

[Cookie]

new update

Hurricane PALOMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Thats the weirdest direction ive seen a hurricane take in that area..

Actually the track Paloma is taking is pretty typical for a late October/November type cyclone as the jet stream digs down hard and the system rides the jet ENE. This reminds me quite a bit of hurricane Michelle, a little to the east of that storm but similar situation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Michelle

Got about another 24-36hrs to strengthen and after that then it should go over Cuba which will induce probably pretty rapid weakening. Also by that time it likely will be running headlong into huge killer shear, though that may allow it to transition into a powerful extra tropical low whilst its still a fairly potent system.

Edited November 7, 2008 by kold weather

[Hurricane Debby]

Latest news on Hurricane Paloma

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7714657.stm

Courtesy of Hurricane Track

UPDATED: 10:30 pm EST, November 6, 2008

CAYMAN ISLANDS GET READY- HURRICANE PALOMA IS HEADED YOUR WAY- CUBA IS NEXT

It is not often that we see a rapidly intensifying hurricane in early November but it does happen. Indeed, Paloma, now a category one hurricane, has proved the global models right in their prediction that a strong tropical cyclone would form in the NW Caribbean. Now the question is: how strong will Paloma get? The official forecast calls for it to reach category three strength near the Cayman Islands or perhaps just after- it is so hard to know how the inner core will react with each passing hour. People in the Caymans need to spend tomorrow getting ready for this hurricane- there is no shortage of experience in that region. After passing through the Caymans, Paloma will make landfall in Cuba and then probably cross the island and in to the southwest Atlantic. From that point, it is possible that the Bahamas will have to deal with it but it is still too soon to know what will be left of the cyclone at that point. We'll take it one day at a time and tomorrow, the hurricane closes in on the Cayman Islands. If you're down there, we would be glad to post any reports that you send us just as long as you can do so safely. I'll post more here throughout the day on Friday.

[Megamoonflake]

Never seen the M symbol on the NOAA track before, I thought we were looking at a Murricane for a second...... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents

[Iceberg]

An eye definately coming through now on visual, should clear soon, Recon are also currently just on the outside and about to report. Could be upto around a CAT 2 now.

[Somerset Squall]

Paloma is looking very good indeed (not for Cayman and Cuba that is):