Major Hurricane Paloma

[Iceberg]

Very quickly intensifying now.Boardline CAT 3 at around the 90-95Kt mark.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008

A. 07/19:43:00Z

B. 18 deg 34 min N

081 deg 21 min W

C. 700 mb 2850 m

D. 80 kt

E. 049 deg 9 nm

F. 150 deg 090 kt

G. 049 deg 018 nm

H. 970 mb

I. 10 C/ 3024 m

J. 16 C/ 3053 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C16

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF303 0517A PALOMA OB 11

MAX FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 18:01:00 Z

MAX FL TEMP 18DEG C 220/07NM

EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

CLEAR ABOVE AND BELOW IN CENTER

[Cookie]

cat 4 before cuba?

Storm Alert issued at 7 Nov, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane PALOMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

A very intense hurricane now currently a CAT 3 with an update from the NHC at 3.00am this morning.

Since then further intensification is happening, the eye is now fantastic and Dvorak is at 6.5 which would equate to a strong CAT 4.

There is a huge temp differential so the eye is still very health, pressure is also dropping (the latest is down to 947mb) low enough to support a CAT 4 easily given her small size.

With 115Kt surface winds I think a CAT 4 on the 9.00am upgrade is very very likely.

There is still some debate on when she will weaken, it could be in the next few hours however she might have until lunchtime to strengthen a bit more.

URNT12 KNHC 080616

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008

A. 08/05:59:40Z

B. 19 deg 17 min N

080 deg 32 min W

C. 700 mb 2694 m

D. 115 kt

E. 292 deg 8 nm

F. 042 deg 110 kt

G. 298 deg 011 nm

H. 951 mb

I. 6 C/ 3074 m

J. 19 C/ 3049 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C22

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0617A PALOMA OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 117 KT SE QUAD 06:03:00 Z

WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL ON RADAR

[Iceberg]

Update now posted 6mph short of a CAT 4 at 125mph.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB

EYE DIAMETER 25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[Iceberg]

Pressure dropping further now 945.

Flight winds of 133Kts approc 115Kt( CAT 4 at surface).

SFMR of 121Kts.

092900 1915N 07953W 6970 02982 9912 +054 +050 218104 107 072 014 00

092930 1917N 07954W 6955 02970 9868 +060 +050 218112 114 075 014 00

093000 1919N 07955W 6969 02914 9772 +100 +050 217118 119 086 008 03

093030 1921N 07955W 6963 02853 9687 +111 +050 216127 133 102 005 03

093100 1923N 07956W 7009 02717 9601 +117 +050 210113 124 109 004 03

093130 1925N 07957W 6970 02720 9504 +167 +050 205069 086 096 004 03

093200 1926N 07958W 6968 02703 9472 +178 +050 208041 049 060 006 00

093230 1927N 08000W 6972 02692 9451 +193 +050 221016 023 033 008 03

093300 1927N 08002W 6967 02701 9452 +193 +050 255008 009 024 008 03

093330 1929N 08003W 6967 02700 9458 +188 +050 228003 006 026 008 03

093400 1930N 08004W 6964 02707 9467 +183 +050 073012 017 030 009 03

093430 1930N 08004W 6964 02707 9474 +179 +050 063018 024 036 009 03

093500 1933N 08007W 6975 02734 9557 +144 +048 057057 069 121 017 03

093530 1934N 08008W 6922 02846 9665 +084 +050 067098 124 121 028 03

093600 1936N 08009W 6994 02852 9791 +060 +050 056105 113 094 057 03

093630 1937N 08011W 6975 02927 9841 +065 +050 056094 099 084 046 00

093700 1938N 08012W 6949 02990 9891 +054 +050 055088 089 078 035 00

093730 1939N 08013W 6958 03007 9894 +075 +050 055084 088 069 017 03

093800 1941N 08015W 6911 03077 9932 +058 +050 054074 077 067 012 00

093830 1942N 08016W 6959 03041 9947 +063 +050 054072 073 066 013 00

[Gray-Wolf]

000

WTNT42 KNHC 081032

TCDAT2

HURRICANE PALOMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008

530 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH A

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. THIS

SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE

FORECAST. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE WIND

RADII...OR THE INTENSITY AT OTHER TIMES.

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR PALOMA TO MAKE LANDFALL IN

CUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THUS...THE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE

PUBLIC ADVISORY HAVE BEEN INCREASED.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Sure seems to have her act together for such a late season storm!

[Iceberg]

Even more intensification, mid range CAT 4 now and knocking on the door of a CAT 5.

Dual eye walls and an estimated surface wind of 128Kts, although this has not yet been found at flight level.

Presure continuing to fall as well.

The expected shear is not impacting at all yet and things look bad again for CUBA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008

A. 08/11:11:50Z

B. 19 deg 36 min N

079 deg 49 min W

C. NA mb 2636 m

D. 128 kt

E. 240 deg 007 nm

F. 344 deg 112 kt

G. 244 deg 009 nm

H. EXTRAP 939 mb

I. 7 C/ 3049 m

J. 22 C/ 3047 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. CO18-32

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0617A PALOMA OB 25

MAX FL WIND 134 KT NW QUAD 09:35:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Somerset Squall]

What a beauty! Paloma is tied for strongest observed November hurricane with Major Hurricane Lenny of 1999. Quite remarkable.

Not good for Cuba though. Paloma is knocking on their doors now- this doesn't look good at all.

[mezzacyclone]

Whats the chances in terms of an impact of a very active extra-tropical affair for the UK on this one?

[Somerset Squall]

Whats the chances in terms of an impact of a very active extra-tropical affair for the UK on this one?

I highly doubt Paloma in the true sense will make it this far. The shear is so high north of the Caribbean that the LLC is likley to dissipate over the Bahamas.

Paloma has set a record for 2008. There has been a major hurricane in five seperate months which has never happened before. The previous record was 2005 which had major hurricanes in 4 months. There was Bertha in July, Gustav in August, Ike in September, Omar in October and now Paloma in November.

[MAF]

PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER

NOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999.

NHC/NOAA

[Mondy]

"M" on the hurricane chart?

Is a new feature, I thunk

Edited November 8, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[James M]

"M" on the hurricane chart?

M for Major Hurricane I think.

Edited November 8, 2008 by James M

[Mondy]

..and now it's gone with the new update (but I saved it)

[Gray-Wolf]

There certainly was an 'm' on the earlier chart (now absent) just at the point of contact with the coast......maybe it was for the Cuban's and was short for 'Meurdo'...(if my latino slang is any good ).

[MAF]

2100Z update from NOAA/NHC

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...

120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115

KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO CRUZ. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 35

MILES...60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL

CUBA TONIGHT...EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE SUNDAY...AND BE

NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE

IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL THEN STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD

OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115

MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

full text here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/082045.shtml?

[Mondy]

http://stormcarib.com/ ( Right side for updates)

[MAF]

thanks Col

Latest Sat image courtesy NOAA

[Somerset Squall]

Despite pressures rising and the satellite imagery depiciting a slightly less good looking storm, flight level winds sampled by recon have justified increasing the sustained winds to 125kts. Paloma is no longer tied second for strongest November storm, it is now firmly on it's own as second, with only Lenny (130kt peak) surpassing her. Paloma is hours away from landfall, only time will tell the damage it may do to eastern Cuba. The storm surge is going to be big with this one, not to mention this is a strong cat 4 at landfall.

Edited November 8, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

poor cuba

Storm Alert issued at 8 Nov, 2008 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PALOMA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Cayman Islands

probability for TS is 45% currently

Jamaica

probability for TS is 35% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 35% currently

[MAF]

down to a 3

courtesy NOAA/NHC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AS PALOMA MOVES

ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

full text here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/082359.shtml?

[Iceberg]

Very late I had almost given up on this season tbh.

She is currently in an appalling state over Cuba and might not even be a hurricane by the time she leaves.

Track after Cuba is difficult, HWRF and GFDL both curve her southwards again to pass underneath to the south, but by then she isn't really a tropical storm.

Other keep her stationary over the islands.

[Somerset Squall]

With Paloma's landfall, another record has fallen. It's the first time in recorded history that Cuba has received a landfall from 3 major hurricanes in one year (these being Gustav, Ike and now Paloma).

Paloma looks a mess now, I expect it to be downgraded to a tropical storm next advisory. Land interaction and higher shear are really tearing Paloma apart.

[Cookie]

been quite a few records this year!

[Somerset Squall]

been quite a few records this year!

Indeed!

Paloma has now weakened to a 30kt tropical depression. There has been little or no convection over the centre for the last 12 hours, and the LLC has stalled over land. Deep convection is now not related to the depression and is located far away in the Bahamas, blasted away by very strong shear. The satellite images clearly shows how Paloma has been left behind.