Tropical Storm Maysak

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 24W has formed just west of the Philippines. Convection has persisted over an increasingly well defined LLC which has led to the formation of the depression. Outflow is good and sea temperatures warm, so intensification is predicted as 24W moves away from the Philippines into the South China Sea. JTWC are currently forecasting a peak of 55kts before shear is progged to increase in around 48hrs time. This should weaken 24W a little prior to landfall in Vietnam. However, there is still time for things to chnge and of course we can't rule out the system becoming a typhoon as waters are pretty toasty in the South China sea right now.

[Cookie]

taken from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200824.html

thanks for the update somerset!

[Somerset Squall]

24W has become Tropical Storm Maysak, with intensity now at 40kts. Further strengthening is predicted as outflow is expected to remain excellent for the next 24hrs. Banding features are good and a very deep core of convection persists over Maysak's LLC. This should allow Maysak to intensify in the short term, the storm may become a typhoon before shear increases, weakening the storm.

The track forecast has become complicated. The northwest motion is expected to continue for the next 24hrs before steering currents become very weak. Maysak is currently forecast to excecute a small loop in the central South China sea before diving southwestwards along the southeastern periphery of a building ridge over China. Cookie's image above shows the erratic track. Expect possible shifts in track over the coming days as the steering pattern remains uncertain. Vietnam isn't out of the woods just yet. One to watch.

[Cookie]

crazy movement their!

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has continued to get stronger today, with intensity now at 55kts. Poleward outflow has been enhanced by an approaching trough which has facilitated more rapid development. However, this same trough will get too close for comfort for Maysak in the next 24hrs and will create a highly sheared environment which should begin a weakening trend. Maysak is now moving northwards but a dive southwards is soon forecast to materialised as a surge of cold northeasterly winds pushes the ever weakening storm in the oppsoite direction to current heading. Landfall is not expected.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak peaked at 60kts in the early hours, but has now begun to weaken. Shear has left the LLC partially exposed and the overall satellite appearance of the storm has degraded. As shear is expected to persist, further weakening can be expected. Maysak is currently drifting northeastwards but the southwestward turn is expected fairly soon. Continued strong shear and the intake of dry, cold air should cause Maysak to degenerate into a remnant low by 48hrs, perhaps sooner. Full dissipation of the remnant low is expected by 96hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has continued to weaken whilst moving briskly southwards. Shear is displacing convection from the weakening LLC. The forecast hasn't changed and Maysak will push southwestwards and dissipate in the next couple days.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has wobbled southeastwards today and degenerated into a remant low. Redevelopment is not expected due to continued strong shear.

[Cookie]

hey somerst is this are traditional drunken hurricane?

[Somerset Squall]

hey somerst is this are traditional drunken hurricane?

Looks like it!

The remnant low of Maysak is now drifting southwestwards and it looks like it has a fair shot at redeveloping into a tropical depression, so much so that the JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the remnants. The trough which caused the killer shear is now moving away and the remnant low has been left in an area of low shear and warm sea temps. The LLC is becoming well defined again and convection is deepening. I agree with JTWC at there being a good chance of Maysak being re-born tommorrow!

This NRL tracking chart just shows how Maysak has wondered around randomly: first it moved northwestward, then turned northward (normal so far), then it dived southeastwards due to the trough mentioned above, and now it's turned southwestwards in a northeasterly steering flow! Maysak certainly likes the south China sea and doesn't want to move out anytime soon

[Somerset Squall]

It appears the remnant low of Maysak didn't make good use of the generally good conditions it was in. There is little evidence of the circulation existing now and convection has decreased a lot since yesterday. Redevelopment is now very unlikely.

Edited November 13, 2008 by Somerset Squall