Tropical Storm Noul

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Noul has formed in the southern half of the south China sea. Noul is pushing westwards along the southern periphery of an elongated steering ridge to the north over Vietnam and is forecast to continue heading westwards over the next few days. Good outflow and warm waters should offset moderate easterly shear to allow intensification. The interesting thing with Noul is how far south he is and the continued west track bring the real probability of the storm keeping to the south of Vietnam, making a short trip over the Malaysian Peninsula and moving into the Bay of Bengal, North Indian Ocean next week. Storms crossing basins isnt all that common so this will be an interesting watch to see if he makes it! Both JTWC and JMA are forecasting this scenario currently. One to

watch!

Satellite image showing Noul bottom left, and Tropical Storm Haishen top right, which also formed in the early hours but is rapidly becoming extratropical so not worth a new thread:

Track of Noul:

[alan61]

Yes should be an interesting one this..see how it goes with the interaction with land, least it will keep intensification down if nothing else, should be just about sustainable for the bay of bengal.

sorry about the double picture post.

[Cookie]

could be a very intresting watch this one

[Somerset Squall]

Noul has tracked a little further north than originally anticipated, which means there is potential for more interaction with land than previously thought. Noul isn't expected to dissipate over southern Vietnam and Cambodia but this can't be ruled out. If Noul survives, it will then move into the North Indian Ocean, where further intensification is probable. Indeed, the JTWC makes a very interesting comment: it's more likely that Noul will have a lot more potential to strengthen on the Bay Of Bengal as there will be no land interaction, and the North Indian Ocean is quite hot currently.

[Cookie]

by the looks of the wounderground map we could get 4 landfalls?

an update

Storm Alert issued at 16 Nov, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NOUL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

I had a look at Noul's progress this morning and thought how the risk of the storm moving into the north Indian ocean had decreased. Now this evening, it's decreased more. Noul has weakened to a 30kt tropical depression over southern Vietnam and has continued west-northwestward, meaning the LLC will be tracking over land for longer. JTWC has backed away from the basin crossing and now forecasts full dissipation within 12 hours. I'm not saying Noul won't make it into the Indian Ocean but it appears a lot more unlikely now.