Tropical Cyclone Anika

[Somerset Squall]

The second tropical cyclone of the 2008/9 season has formed in the eastern half of the South Indian Ocean, around 150 nautical miles west-northwest of Cocos Island. Convection has persisted near the rapidly deepening centre, and banding features have looked impressive all day, which has prompted the JTWC to upgrade the invest to TC status. Initial intensity is 35kts, and further strengthening is expected as 02S nears Cocos Island. Favourable outflow, decreasing shear and fairly warm sea temps should promote this intensification. BOM are expecting this to become a cat 2 on the Australian scale in 2-3 days time (note this is about cat 1 on SS scale). 02S is likely to bring heavy rains and severe gales to Cocos Island, but as it is far away from mainland Australia it isn't expected to make any drastic impact here, at least yet.

[Somerset Squall]

02S has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Anika. Anika is set to batter Cocos Island with some pretty lively winds and rain starting later tommorrow. Anika should continue to strengthen in conditions of low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. However, in about 2 days time, if Anika continues southeastwards, she will find cooler waters and higher shear. The high shear/lower sea temp combo is affectively protecting Australia from Anika, and if Anika wants to survive more than a few days a more direct eastwards heading will allow a longer lifespan.

[Somerset Squall]

Anika continues to look fairly impressive today, and intensity has increased to 50kts. Convection contiues to fire over the tightly wound centre and banding features continue to flank the storm. Anika has about another 24hrs over favourable waters where it's possible a little more intensification may occur. After which, stronger shear and cooler water will weaken Anika on the continued southeast track.

[Cookie]

this just confims what you where saying somerset

[Somerset Squall]

Anika remains a 50kt storm but shear has increased and waters are cooling as Anika accelerates southeastwards. At this speed, Anika may still be a tropical cyclone (albeit depression status) at landfall in mainland Australia, perhaps in the vicinity of Learmonth. Expect some weakening from hear on in as Anika suffers at the hand of bad environmental conditions.