Tropical Cyclone Bernard

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical cyclone has formed in the South Indian Ocean, a few hundred miles west-northwest of Cocos Island. 03S consists of a small LLC with persistant, deep convection over the centre. Low shear and warm waters have facilitated the development of this new cyclone, but the favourable conditions aren't set to last. Shear is expected to increase tomorrow, and because of this, the JTWC peak 03S at 40kts and maintain it at that intensity through 48hrs. It's possible if the shear becomes a little stronger than forecast then 03S won't maintain intensity and will instead dissipate. This is a real possibilty as 03S is so small and thus sensitive to environmental changes. However, this is not forecast as conditions won't be that hostile. 03S is expected to move east through the next couple days along the southern side of a subtropical steering ridge to the north. This will keep 03S over moderately warm waters which may act against the progged shear. 03S may be a threat to Cocos Island late this weekend.

[Cookie]

taken from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/si200803.html

thanks for the updates somerset

[Somerset Squall]

03S has become Tropical Cyclone Bernard, with an intensity of 40kts. Bernard will continue to move briskly eastwards into a region of moderate to high shear which will hinder further intensification. SST's may remain warm enough to support Bernard as a minimal tropical cyclone for the next couple days.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, what a difference a few hours makes. Convection has completly vanished from Bernard and Meteofrance has downgraded him to a depression. Bernard could become a remnant low in the next 12 hours if convection doesn't come back. It's amazing how Bernard was looking quite good earlier but now all that's left is an ill defined skeletal low.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate, any reason why they don't seem to be lasting long at the moment?

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the updates mate, any reason why they don't seem to be lasting long at the moment?

Probably due to lots of shear in the South Indian Ocean at the moment, aswell as sea temps not being all that high et as the South Indian Ocean season has only just started. Expect some stronger, longer lasting storms around Jan-Mar when the season is at it's busiest (like last season). Anika and Bernard are quite early so they just didn't have all that great conditions to survive in.

[Cookie]

slightly off topic I know, but during the peak which out the main hurricane supporting oceans do the highest temps occur?

[Somerset Squall]

slightly off topic I know, but during the peak which out the main hurricane supporting oceans do the highest temps occur?

Difficult to say really, there is no clear cut answer. Each basin the sea temps rise to about 30C, with maybe isolated warm eddys of 32C, which were noted quite widely around the northern territory of Australia last season. But you can easily get sea temperatures around 32C in any basin.

[Cookie]

ok thanks for getting back to me!