Alternative Winter Forecast

[Candice]

Here it is the moment you all have been waiting for with bated breath - my lrf based on absolutely nothing but intuition!

Firstly, don’t get too carried away by the fact that it’s been colder and snowier this October and November than it has for very many years. It’s not a sign for the rest of the winter.

I feel generally the weather will remain cold with the potential for snowfall up until about mid-December – most of the potential will come in short bursts rather like this weekend. Sorry, but no major UK-wide snowfall anywhere on the cards. Snow will be reserved for the north and high ground.

After mid-December we are due a change back to the milder, westerlies, a couple of windstorms before Christmas mostly affecting the north and west but for the rest of the country mild and relatively dry. This will take us through the Christmas period.

Early January it is possible to see much colder weather but of the dry, sunny by day and frosty by night type of cold. Could see some very low overnight minima during this period.

Mid to late January will then see a swing back to the Atlantic but again no vast amounts of precipitation anywhere away from the north-west. So chilly but not overly so and rather cloudy – dismal!

February and March should see lovely bright sunny days, overnight frosts but not exceptionally cold.

To summarise, overall much drier than recently, not a lot of snow, temps about average with a couple of below average, particularly in early January.

Edited November 23, 2008 by Candice

[Nick L]

Sounds reasonable to me and realistic, a fairly typical winter IMO.

[Andy Bown]

:o Well written Candice.

It's going to be interesting to see who, if any of us, was close to the mark come late Feb!

Edited November 23, 2008 by Andy Bown

[Candice]

:o Well written Candice.

It's going to be interesting to see who, if any of us, was close to the mark come late Feb!

Thank you Andy - have you put yours up yet? Looking forward to seeing it.

[Phil UK]

Here it is the moment you all have been waiting for with bated breath - my lrf based on absolutely nothing but intuition!

Firstly, don't get too carried away by the fact that it's been colder and snowier this October and November than it has for very many years. It's not a sign for the rest of the winter.

I feel generally the weather will remain cold with the potential for snowfall up until about mid-December – most of the potential will come in short bursts rather like this weekend. Sorry, but no major UK-wide snowfall anywhere on the cards. Snow will be reserved for the north and high ground.

After mid-December we are due a change back to the milder, westerlies, a couple of windstorms before Christmas mostly affecting the north and west but for the rest of the country mild and relatively dry. This will take us through the Christmas period.

Early January it is possible to see much colder weather but of the dry, sunny by day and frosty by night type of cold. Could see some very low overnight minima during this period.

Mid to late January will then see a swing back to the Atlantic but again no vast amounts of precipitation anywhere away from the north-west. So chilly but not overly so and rather cloudy – dismal!

February and March should see lovely bright sunny days, overnight frosts but not exceptionally cold.

To summarise, overall much drier than recently, not a lot of snow, temps about average with a couple of below average, particularly in early January.

We shall see, Nostradamus Erm I mean Candice. :o

My own opinion however I think and sticking my neck out here will be dreaming of a wet Christmas. I want a white one really but only white one I perceive will be a early morning hoar frost. (It's happened before! :o )

As for Winter as a whole? Mmm! Started early (28/10/08) but as you rightly say, no guarantee as a portent of things to come.

Phil.

[Andy Bown]

Thank you Andy - have you put yours up yet? Looking forward to seeing it.

Mine will be added next weekend because winter doesn't start until 1 December, which isn't until next Monday, and I'd like to try & get at least until T96 fairly correct !

[The watcher]

Interesting read, not quite what I was expecting, but then again thats Womens intuition for you , just joking.

Not a bad forecast and definitely realistic.

[PB22]

Thanks Candice. Very interesting and I would tend to go along with your line of thoughts although I am expecting conditions to turn much milder for the second half of December and that the rest of the winter will then be on the mild side.

[Andy Bown]

Today's update of the BBC Monthly Outlook is very similar for the middle part of December to what I wrote when writing most of my forecast 10 days ago !

[Candice]

Interesting read, not quite what I was expecting, but then again thats Womens intuition for you B) , just joking.

Not a bad forecast and definitely realistic.

What were you expecting - mystic Meg?? B)

[The watcher]

What were you expecting - mystic Meg?? B)

Well thats exactly what it is like trying to forecast 3-4 months in advance, there is more chance of mystic Peg being correct. But hopefully we can do our best and if you've made a cold outlook we can hope it comes off B)

[Candice]

Just been reviewing this - not bad for an amateur eh! "Pats self on back"

[MAF]

Just been reviewing this - not bad for an amateur eh! "Pats self on back"

yes a well deserved pat on the back. so far its been as accurate as you could ask for. especially as even the professionals struggled past 5 days for some periods in december.

[cheeky_monkey]

actually i not seen this forecast before..and you know what i think it is much better than the forecast by BFTP & Roger Smith that everybody keeps hailing as a great success..me i dont think so as much..but your one is excellent..top marks from me..i hope some others read this forecast too!!!

[Candice]

Why thank you guys - I know it's pretty generalised but I honestly think that's all you can do with an LRF. Not bad for an "old bat"!!

Edited January 10, 2009 by Candice

[Nick L]

See, I voted for your method and my faith was right! Scarily spot on so far...

Edited January 10, 2009 by nick2702

[Yozzer]

Strong evidence here to trust a woman's intuition.

Do you do lifestyle advice as well by any chance?

[Candice]

Strong evidence here to trust a woman's intuition.

Do you do lifestyle advice as well by any chance?

Try very hard not to TBH - I'm no role model for anyone!

See, I voted for your method and my faith was right! Scarily spot on so far...

Scared myself a bit when I re-read it today!

[Paul Sherman]

Very Well Done Candice, Intuition or not that could have been written up to todays date on what has actually happened, A stunning Forecast and you have put the Met Office to Shame!

Regards

Paul S

[D KARLSON]

Theres no way you can be that accurate rather weird to say the least, !!!!!

WITCHCRAFT :lol: :lol:

[Candice]

Theres no way you can be that accurate rather weird to say the least, !!!!!

WITCHCRAFT :lol: :lol:

Female intuition and witchcraft are very similar! Before you all make me blush - bear in mind that it was totally generalised and had absolutely no detail shown. Of course, science did come into it but very little - mainly teleconnection stuff and a little bit of probability (after all I'm a statistician!). The sort of stuff Roger and Fred have done took a lot of time and effort and has also been pretty damn accurate - I'm fascinated by Roger's research and have always been aware that weather patterns tend to change around the time of a full moon.

Very Well Done Candice, Intuition or not that could have been written up to todays date on what has actually happened, A stunning Forecast and you have put the Met Office to Shame!

Regards

Paul S

Thank's Paul - for God's sake don't tell the Met Office! Now to get the crystal ball back out for summer eh! Actually it may well go TU for February - my crystal ball didn't show the SSW at all but I'm still pretty confident that it'll be cold (but not as cold as early January) with little snow to talk about!

Edited January 24, 2009 by Candice

[sundog]

After reading Candices winter forecast i have to say i was amazed at how accurate her forecast has been so far. Its the most accurate lrf ive ever read. A very big well done to you Candice.

[PB22]

Female intuition and witchcraft are very similar! Before you all make me blush - bear in mind that it was totally generalised and had absolutely no detail shown. Of course, science did come into it but very little - mainly teleconnection stuff and a little bit of probability (after all I'm a statistician!). The sort of stuff Roger and Fred have done took a lot of time and effort and has also been pretty damn accurate - I'm fascinated by Roger's research and have always been aware that weather patterns tend to change around the time of a full moon.

A fantastic forecast so far, well done Candice! In my view a generalised LRF is of far more use than one that tries to pin down specific dates and events (no disrepect intended to anyone) as it is nigh on impossible IMO to pick out certain events months in advance, and, that if the process of LRF's is to improve then generalised forecasts are the way forward, and you have shown this very well indeed.

[Polar Gael]

Most impressive so far. Well done.

[Neilsouth]

Impressive HOWEVER February and March should see lovely bright sunny days, overnight frosts but not exceptionally cold , this could go either way early next week!

Edited January 30, 2009 by neilsouth