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December CET


Mark Bayley

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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

A coldish start but with much milder incursions as the second half of the month approaches I suspect. Nothing cold enough to get below average but probably not so bad for modern winters so I'll go for 5.3 please. Thanks.

Moose

Edited by ukmoose
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

4.5c for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
What's CET?

The Central England Temperature monthly average. It is the average of all of each month's daily mean temperature measurements (Daytime maximum plus night-time minimum divided by two), recorded at three different weather stations (formerly just two) taken as being representative of central England - or, more specifically, a triangle bounded by London, Bristol and Lancashire. You can read more here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle...indicators.html and here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle...bsdata/cet.html .

The reason it is of particular interest is that broadly similar measurements have been taken and recorded every month since the year 1659 - which makes it the longest such instrumental temperature record in the world, and very useful for seeing the change in our climate. See here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadCET_act.txt .

There are arguments about the current choice of weather stations, and whether they really give a figure that can be fairly compared with the old ones. You will hear people talking about the "Hadley" figure (the official figure calculated by the Hadley Climate Research Centre) and the "Manley" one, which is produced by the fine meteorologist Philip Eden, and which he maintains is a measure more consistent with the earlier record. Here's what he says about it: http://www.climate-uk.com/page5.html .

Towards the end of each month we try and estimate - well, guess, really - what the next month's Hadley Centre figure will be: they announce it after "adjustments" shortly after the end of the month (as well as publishing the running figure every day before). Each year's twelve possible monthly entries are scored on how close the entrants' guesses are (on an incredibly complicated points system that I neither understand nor trust!), and a tally is kept and league table updated every month - you are allowed to miss a couple without penalty, I think.

The entries have to be posted by midnight on the last day of the month before or you are penalised. And each year's competition starts, for reasons lost in the mists of time, not in January but in December. So if you want to join in the new year's comp you have until midnight tomorrow to get in at the beginning....and please, please do - it's one of the few things around where the "expert" estimators have little or no advantage over the wild guessers! There are, or were, also subsidiary competitions for each season's figures, and for the whole year's figure - the average of all the year's monthly averages......the current point of discussion is whether or not the whole year figure for 2008 will come in below 10, something that hasn't happened since 2001.

It's all pretty harmless fun for those of us who don't get out much :angry: .

Ossie

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'll take a stab at 3.3C

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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

3.1c please.

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

Difficult one to call this...Decembers of recent years usually provide the coldest anomoly and it looks like the first week will be quite cold followed by somewhat of a milder trend and possibly stormy by mid-month, and going by the last 6 months trend of near normal values have to go for this...5.2C

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Edit: Already punted lol! :lol:

Edited by The watcher
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Scrap my last prediction, I am going to knock it down a tad and go for 4.1c

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Posted
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down

December is easy

another mild on I'm afraid, after all this early cold stuff

I'll pitch mine at 7.4C or 280.4 K

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Posted
  • Location: NW London; ~ 60m ASL
  • Location: NW London; ~ 60m ASL
December is easy

another mild on I'm afraid, after all this early cold stuff

I'll pitch mine at 7.4C or 280.4 K

That should be 280.55 K. If you're trying to be clever make sure you are at least correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
wow this chart would be very windy in scotland

Rtavn3841.png

In the CET thread...why? :lol:

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