December CET

[Diane_W]

Now someone has finally pm'd to tell me what CET means I will take my guess.

7.2c

[osmposm]

Now someone has finally pm'd to tell me what CET means I will take my guess.

7.2c

May I make a plea for Diane_W's late entry above to be penalty-free?

On 26th November she posted a request for an explanation of what CET is, and was met with...a resounding silence. I finally posted a full rundown of what it is and how our competition works at 9pm on 29th Nov, which she didn't see (why should she?) amidst the cascade of later entries, so I drew her attention to it in a PM yesterday - just 11 hours before the deadline. But she presumably wasn't online, and so didn't see the PM until this morning.....when she looked at my (unnecessarily) long answer to her question in this thread, and put in her entry an hour or so ago.

Her 7.2 is an exceptionally high entry, and I don't think will feature in the running (I hope not!); but it seems only fair not to penalize it since we were to blame for its lateness by not answering her question for three days.

Ossie

PS Can I add that I am not related to her, do not know her, do not fancy her, and have absolutely no vested interest in acting on her behalf in this..um..critically important matter (Diane, when did you say you'd put the cheque in the post...?)

[Kentish Man]

Yes I'll support Osmposm on this

Btw does any brave soul with a bit of time fancy doing a full list of the December entries received to date?

[Duncan McAlister]

Yes I'll support Osmposm on this

Btw does any brave soul with a bit of time fancy doing a full list of the December entries received to date?

I'm on it

[Duncan McAlister]

Craig Evans 8.5

Mike W 8

snowingman 7.4

Diane W 7.2

grab my graupel 6.7

mark forster 630 6.6

WhiteXmas 5.9

Orange Sky 5.7

snowsure 5.7

reef 5.6

DAVID SNOW 5.6

daveshug 5.6

acbrixton 5.5

swfc 5.4

Jack Wales 5.4

chionomaniac 5.3

ukmoose 5.3

Mark H 5.3

IRON-BRU 5.3

WS Evolution 5.2

DR Hosking 5.2

Stargazer 5.2

Timmy H 5.2

Timmead 5.2

1971-00 average 5.1

The PIT 5.1

shuggee 5.1

TomSE20 5.1

tcc 5

mulzy 5

Megamoonflake 5

JACKONE 5

Andy_Calafell_Sheffield 4.9

SteveB 4.9

derby4life 4.9

Mr Maunder 4.9

Norrance 4.8

Mr_Data 4.8

NorthantsSnow 4.8

Cold in Cromarty 4.8

RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.7

SNOW-MAN2006 4.7

osmposm 4.7

ned 4.7

1961-90 average 4.6

TOMB RAIDER LEGEND 4.6

Anti-Mild 4.6

Potent Gust 4.6

Stu_London 4.6

Acupuncturist 4.6

The Calm before the Storm 4.6

Thundery wintry showers 4.6*

Polar Gael 4.5

jimben 4.5

Roger J Smith 4.5

Don 4.5

phil n.warks. 4.5

beng 4.5

mark bayley 4.5

LadyPakal 4.5

bluearmy 4.5

Glacier Point 4.5

Snowstorm1 4.4

Great Plum 4.4

themusicland 4.4

RUSS L.F.C. 4.3

damianslaw 4.3

pjb120 4.3

Kentish Man 4.3

Rollo 4.2

BLAST FROM THE PAST 4.2

AtlanticFlamethrower 4.2

kold weather 4.2

Terminal Moraine 4.1

suffolkboy_ 4.1

nick2702 4.1

Snow-Storm 4.1

summer blizzard 4.1

memories of 63 4

dice45 4

mk13 4

sundog 4

Snowyowl9 4

James M 3.9

The watcher 3.9

Steve Murr 3.9

fozi999 3.9

SNOWPLOUGH 3.8

Devon-Nelly 3.8

Polar Side 3.8

adamjones416 3.7

BARRY 3.7

Optimus Prime 3.6

stormforce 10 3.5

mountain shadow 3.5

kippure 3.4

NaDamantaSam 3.3

Duncan McAlister 3.1

stewfox 3.1

Timbo 3.1

Polar Continental 3.1

snowmaiden 3

West is Best 2.2

eddie 1.9

tundra 1.8

paul tall 1.7

trickydicky -0.4

MetmanFlash -1

Tornado Alley -2.3

*late entry

If I've missed anyone out, let me know and I'll soon correct it

[J10]

Unfortunately , I think we have to stick to the rules and take the 10pts off for Diane W, I know it seems harsh and it is, but if we start bending the rules, then other players will have extenuating circumstances and ask for no points deductions.

[suffolkboy_]

I was sure I had put my punt in but looking through I can't find it anywhere! Maybe I didn't. Owell, just for fun....

Low daytime maxima until the 10th, with a number of those nights having low or very low night time minima. This will help give a low CET for the first third of the month - this rising a tad maybe during the second week.

From about the 12th an area of high pressure will dominate the South especially. Scotland probably near normal but ofcourse this will not reflect in the CET. Freezing fog and low daytime minima will become more extensive, maybe dropping the CET down to around 2C for a time.

From the 18th the Atlantic will try its best to amake a return, maybe some trasitional snow, before the milder weather takes control completely on about the 21st. Continuing this way until the 26th (a green Christmas) before an Artic blast.

Overall a CET of 3.1

[Duncan McAlister]

I was sure I had put my punt in but looking through I can't find it anywhere! Maybe I didn't. Owell, just for fun....

Low daytime maxima until the 10th, with a number of those nights having low or very low night time minima. This will help give a low CET for the first third of the month - this rising a tad maybe during the second week.

From about the 12th an area of high pressure will dominate the South especially. Scotland probably near normal but ofcourse this will not reflect in the CET. Freezing fog and low daytime minima will become more extensive, maybe dropping the CET down to around 2C for a time.

From the 18th the Atlantic will try its best to amake a return, maybe some trasitional snow, before the milder weather takes control completely on about the 21st. Continuing this way until the 26th (a green Christmas) before an Artic blast.

Overall a CET of 3.1

It's actually on the list, it's 4.1. Would you like it changed? (10 point penalty for an entry a day late I believe?)

[suffolkboy_]

It's actually on the list, it's 4.1. Would you like it changed? (10 point penalty for an entry a day late I believe?)

Sorry about that.

I'll stick with the 4.1C, then with any luck it will come out at my new guess!

[Duncan McAlister]

Sorry about that.

I'll stick with the 4.1C, then with any luck it will come out at my new guess!

Hopefully, but you're probably best sticking with your original guess in this climate

[osmposm]

Unfortunately , I think we have to stick to the rules and take the 10pts off for Diane W, I know it seems harsh and it is, but if we start bending the rules, then other players will have extenuating circumstances and ask for no points deductions.

I understand, J1......but oh, boo hiss: is chivalry quite dead, even among this sorry mob of weather geeks? We few, we happy few, we band of brothers?

(well, I tried, Diane)

[casparjack]

I think we'll end up at 4.3c.

[Stu_London]

Dec 01 - Dec 01 - 0.6C

[eddie]

The coldest start to December since 1978.

[Weather-history]

The coldest start to December since 1978.

..or even the coldest start to winter since 1978

[Bobd29]

..or even the coldest start to winter since 1978

HI all

I have followed but not posted for a couple of years, now I have a little more time I may activley join in again. So a late start but I would like to post a guess of 3.9 for the Dec CET competition. I may even remeber to do all 12 this time around!!!

Many thanks, Bobd29...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Unfortunately , I think we have to stick to the rules and take the 10pts off for Diane W, I know it seems harsh and it is, but if we start bending the rules, then other players will have extenuating circumstances and ask for no points deductions.

I was expecting someone to come up with that response! I don't often disagree with you, but that argument reminds me of the popular "you can't ever make exceptions to a rule or change any aspect of it in any way, because if you do it will mean more and more exceptions/changes until we have anarchy" slippery slope argument. That argument only holds true if we don't take measures to stop that sort of thing from happening.

If we get members coming along and saying "can I have no deduction because I was ill on 29 November" or "because I thought the 1st December was the last date of entry" or whatever, there's nothing to stop us from turning around, drawing a line and saying no. After all, there are very specific, proven circumstances behind Osmposm's argument, not some numpty trying to cheat the system.

Not that it makes much difference to the scoring as 7.2 is way, way too high!

[Optimus Prime]

To be honest TWS, there's no excuse psoting a prediction late. SB normally posts the thread weeks in advance. If you think you can't make the post (bearing in mind the internet is 24/7 and being ill is no excuse) then you should make the prediction when the thread starts. A bit like being late for work and not expecting a verbal. Some people are consistently late in making the prediction.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure how to interpret that response but I'm guessing that it's based on a misinterpretation of my previous post.

I was referring specifically to the Osmposm/Diane case, where she made a compelling effort to avoid breaking the rules but was unable to get the required help, and far from suggesting that illness or confusion over last date of entry are valid excuses, I was quoting them as possible examples of bad excuses people could use in JACKONE's slippery slope scenario, where the correct approach would be to turn around and say tough.

And I certainly wasn't complaining about being docked 10 points myself- I knew fine well that by revising my 5.5 to 4.6 on 1st December I would pay a 10-point penalty, but I thought it was worth taking the penalty rather than being much further out with my prediction. As it stands I actually had no excuse at all!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Current min: -1.9 (-4.4)

Current max: 3.7 (-4.1) to the 2nd.

Edited December 2, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[ukmoose]

I'm on it :lol:

Well done that man.

[Optimus Prime]

Current CET upto 2nd is about 1.6c. Period 3rd-7th looks set to average 3.3c. CET to the 7th should be around 2.8c, this is 2.8c below the 71-000 average and 2.3c below the 61-90 for the average first week of December.

Does look as if after this period the CET may start falling again.

[Optimus Prime]

If the CET is 2.8c by the 7th it'll be the coldest first week of December since 1998 when 2.4c was recorded.

Cold winters with average first week of December temperatures (1961-90 average);

Dec

1996 1-7th 4.4c (-0.7c) Ending at 2.9c

1995 1-7th 5.0c (-0.1c) 2.3c

1990 1-7th 4.6c (-0.5c) 4.3c

1986 1-7th 8.7c (+3.6c) 6.2c

1985 1-7th 9.7c (+4.6c) 6.3c

1981 1-7th 5.2c (+0.1c) 0.3c

1978 1-7th 2.5c (-2.6c) 3.9c

1968 1-7th 5.2c (+0.1c) 3.0c

1962 1-7th 0.1c (-5.0c) 1.8c

1955 1-7th 6.8c (+1.7c) 5.4c

1946 1-7th 4.4c (-0.7c) 3.1c

You would fancy our chances at something colder this winter.

[Snowyowl9]

Seems to be a pattern going on here with the last 3 months with a cold first week.

1998 was cold during the first week especially the 6th which was just as cold as yesterday here min and max.

This could well be a colder first week here actually.

[Nick L]

Still nothing mild on the models, I think we could be in for a fairly cold month!