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Record Warmth Vs Cold


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

The two threads now seem in need of an 'outlet ' where any discussions can be held rather than stagnate the threads themselves.

To me there seem to be 2 areas that may be of interest;

1/ unseasonal warmth/cold

2/ extreme 'in season' warmth and cold

Records being set outside there 'norm' would seem to me more interesting if we are looking at a 'changing world', a more 'dynamic' climate system (driven by extra heat) would lead to more extreme 'cold plunges/warm plumes' bringing more 'unseasonable temperatures' into regions.

In a 'warming world' would we expect a steady stream of summer 'hot records' being set? The same ,in winter for a 'cooling world'?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Hmmm, 45% cold, 55% hot. Its hardly a major pointer either way with both points just being a fraction either side of chance.

If they are all recent records it would highlight 'more energy' within the system surely?

With 'warm plumes' reaching ever poleward and displacing 'cold plunges' towards the equator the more dynamic system is bound to push out more remarkable events. And from where do we get this 'added energy'?

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham

Thats what the climate change industry will tell you. Its up to you whether you soak it all up.

Lets put it this way, in any given year, in a stable planet with no global mean temperature fluctuations up or down, you'd expect hot and cold records to be 50/50. A colder than average spell would be as likely as a warmer than average spell in any given location on the planet at any given time of year. You'd expect records to be set at "chance". Thats 50%.

But the thing is, the earth never ever has been stable temperature wise and never ever will be, so over a long enough time depending on whether the world was going through a warming phase or a cooling phase, the percentages of hot and cold records set would reflect that.

As we know, the world has warmed slightly, and 45% cold records to 55% warm is indicative of this. A few points either side of chance, no more no less. But probably enough of a discrepancy to reflect the slight rise in global temperature.

As for suggesting that cold records are a result of extra energy in the system so to speak, pushing warm plumes poleward and displacing cold air southward......thats climate, not climate change.

Is there anything that the climate change industry will not point to as an indicator of near global catastrophe?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

On a 'stable planet' I'd have thought all the records would have been set over the 200yrs of 'acceptable' record taking. The 'Fact' that we have had a 15yr spate in records falling (year on year) would have you thinking something has changed. For us in the U.K. there have (to my mind) been 2 notable summers (76', 03') yet through the 90's and noughties all manner of records have been set so it appears (to me) to be well outside natural variability.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham

Not really.

If you took the 20 years previous to 1990, and the 20 years previous to that, and so on then you may well find just as many records broken in those timeframe.

Besides, even if more records have been broken in the last 2 decades, I'm not disagreeing that things have warmed up a notch since 1990 anyway. You can't really argue temperature facts.

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