Tropical Cyclone Nisha

[Somerset Squall]

The sixth tropical cyclone of the 2008 North Indian Ocean has formed just off the north coast of Sri Lanka. Intensity is at 40kts, and the environment is excellent for strengthening, with very good radial outflow and low shear. However, land interaction will prevent any significant intensification prior to landfall on the east coast of India in 24 hours time. Rapid weakening will then commence as 06B tracks inland. 06B is likely to bring significant rainfall to southern and eastern India over the next day or so, along with squally winds.

[Somerset Squall]

06B was upgraded to TC Nisha overnight, and Nisha intensified to 55kts this afternoon prior to landfall. This storm could have been big if it didn't start out so close to land, the conditions were ideal and Nisha was a very well organised cyclone. Nisha is now weakening as it travels further inland. There remains a possibility that Nisha could survive the westwards treck over southern India and the restrengthen over the Arabian Sea. This scenario isn't likely but still needs to be watched. The fact that Nisha's LLC was very defined at landfall helps her chances somewhat.

[Cookie]

Little late, but better then never

Storm Alert issued at 26 Nov, 2008 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm NISHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 85% currently

Sri Lanka

probability for TS is 65% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nagappattinam (10.8 N, 79.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 85% currently

Jaffna (9.7 N, 80.0 E)

probability for TS is 55% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

the above taken from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ni200806.html

[Somerset Squall]

Nisha is not behaving now :lol: . Nisha has wobbled back eastwards over the last few hours and is now back over water, though still very near the coast. Nisha is expected to resume westwards heading back inland soon though, but the wobble has delayed further weakening. Currently still at 50kts.

Thanks for the update Cookie.

[Cookie]

it makes it more interesting when they don't behave

[Somerset Squall]

it makes it more interesting when they don't behave

Indeed it does, the "drunken" hurricane to coin your phrase!

In this case though, the fact that Nisha is lingering near the coast is not good. India Met Department are forecasting 10 inches of rain to fall in southeastern India which needless to say may cause some serious flooding.

[Somerset Squall]

Nisha is holding herself together pretty well as she moves slowly westwards across land. Looking at satellite imagery you can see the LLC is still pretty well defined though convection is on the decrease. Nisha is about halfway across the Southern half of India and could re-emerge in the Arabian Sea tomorrow. What state Nisha will be in then remains to be seen but she's looking good so far.

[Cookie]

yup I agree she looks ok at the moment,

[Somerset Squall]

The slow moving nature of Nisha has really created some very large rainfall totals, over half a metre in places!!

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.a..._landfall_1.asp

Sadly, there has been 51 deaths related to Nisha, and this toll may rise over the coming days in the life threatening floods and mudslides. Doesn't look at all good in southeast India at the moment.

Nisha herself, as expected, as degenerated into a remnant low. The LLC is still clearly visable but there isn't much organised convection around it. Despite this, some outer bands are still providing some serious rainfall.

The possibility remains of re-development when the low moves over the Arabian Sea.

[Cookie]

not at all good re death toll, was sadly expected though

[Somerset Squall]

Death toll has now sadly climbed to 90, the flooding is truly devestating out there, images too really tell the story. Worry now is food and shelter for the homeless.

http://newstodaynet.com/newsindex.php?id=1...mp;%20section=6

[Cookie]

not good at all very sad fact of hurricanes/ cyclones even the small ones

weather underground have given up on this storm reforming

[Somerset Squall]

weather underground have given up on this storm reforming

Indeed, the remnant low of Nisha has been moving northwestwards instead of westwards and therefore has spent much longer over land. Consequently, chances of redevelopment are now slim.

Had the remnants continued westwards, they would be back over water by now, with a much greater shot at re-developing.