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Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Well, allegedly, it's summer. Summer should be the warmest three months of the year, which in Wellington are January, February and March. It also helps that March is always much more settled and less windy than December. Most Kiwis seem to think December is Spring and I'm inclined to agree. However, the meteorological definition says otherwise! So here goes!

    Summer has started quite well. Yesterday was rather humid and warmed up quickly. A high of 22C.

    Today was windier and more fresh, a high of 21C.

    High pressure is persisting to our east which is keeping things consistently warm for most. It's also making the North Island reasonably humid. The latitude of the high (about 37S) is typical of Spring. It means Wellington will likely be windy all week.

    East Coast of both islands are getting more and more hot northwesterlies which is drying out the soil at a worrying rate, as it has been doing so for the last 3 months. It's now the case that any cold fronts following these winds will be really weak and not bring much useful rain. So we could be in a situation where the east will have to wait until April to get proper rain. Right now Gisborne is forecast to have highs of 27/28C for the rest of the week with plenty of sunshine and occasional northwesterlies, interspersed with sea breezy days.

    Typical of the worrying dryness of November is Culverden (east of SI) which had 8mm of rain in the month, and Wairoa (east of NI) which had 11mm of rain in the month. This happens every year and in summer the only solid rainfall possible for these areas (especially the east of the NI) is from ex-tropical cyclones and their associated moisture laden easterlies.

    Culverden also had a mean daily maximum of 23.4C last month.

    Christchurch (fairly near to Culverden) had 270 hours of sunshine last month.

    So combining the strong, dry winds with consistently warm temperatures and high sunshine hours, you've a recipe for some big worrying over the next 4 or 5 months.

    Looks like highs in the region of 19-21C for this week for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Christmas turned out settled but cool across the country, with highs in the low to mid 20s for most, but only in the teens in the south.

    Boxing Day was much warmer everywhere and really felt like a good summers day.

    Currently we have a northwest flow, so it has been warm in the east for days on end. Culverden reaching 33C yesterday and Hanmer Springs 32C. High 20s have been recorded everyday in the east of both islands for the last 4 days.

    Humid easterlies on the North Island today have caused dewpoints to reach 20C, with temperatures about 25C in those regions, making it quite uncomfortable.

    The latest synoptic situation is showing a low under the subtropical jet just north of the country. Fortunately, it's going to continue steering it away from NZ. But the front in the Tasman Sea will strike, with heavy rain ahead of it for the west. Currently irritatingly windy in Wellington, with a reasonably tight gradient ahead of the front being aided by the heat low on the South Island. Knocked temperatures here down to 19C coming up to 5PM, after a high of 23C, with dewpoints at 15C.

    Last few days of the year. Wellington will end 2008 having recorded 2200 hours of bright sunshine. It may turn out to be the wettest year in quite a while.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Warm flow continues, with 21C dewpoints up north. Very active cold front moving through South Island. NW'erlies ahead of this are giving heavy rain to the West Coast, and TS and possible tornadoes with the front.

    Southerly change behind the front, at last. Been a while since we had a southerly change. This will pick up some possible major TS tomorrow with the 500hPa trough moving through. After that, a ridge moves in from the Tasman Sea, hangs around for days on end and makes our weather go into a somewhat boring period.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Heatwave:

    We are in the first one of this summer. Temperatures in Christchurch first went over 30C yesterday, after hovering in the high 20s for a few days. Today, it saw almost 36C, and only 0.2C cooler than their January record temperature which was set way back in 1979.

    Unofficial weather stations have been reporting over 40C of heat today.

    Current warmest spot is Masterton, which is at 33C at 6:30PM, with relative humidity of about 30%.

    At 8PM it is still 31C in Masterton.

    It's a sizzler: temperatures soar nationwide

    By MICHAEL FOX - Stuff.co.nz | Thursday, 08 January 2009

    Email a Friend | Printable View | Have Your Say

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    Much of New Zealand sweltered in unusually hot weather today, with reports the mercury topped 40 degrees Celsius in Christchurch.

    Hotter than normal temperatures were widespread over New Zealand with 12 locations between Timaru and Gisborne recording temperatures of more than 30C, MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said.

    The MetService had recorded air temperatures up to 35.7C in Christchurch, which made it the hottest day of the summer so far and neared its January record high of 35.9 degrees in 1979.

    However, Christchurch-based weather analyst Richard Green reported temperatures of 40C in the early afternoon with the suburb of Barrington reaching 41C, Cashmere 40C and Christchurch city 38C.

    MetService spokesperson Nic Bonnette said a ridge of high pressure over the Mainland, combined with north-westerly winds blowing across the ranges, was creating the high temperatures; a weather pattern known as the "Fohn Effect".

    "So, much of the areas down that east coast [of the South Island] will be getting quite warm temperatures," she said.

    Around Christchurch, Lyttelton was also 33 degrees, while further north Blenheim was 30. Middlemarch and Cromwell have so far peaked at 29.

    However, the run of good weather is set to end as a cold front prepares to cross the South Island tomorrow, she said.

    In the North Island, Tauranga and Gisborne topped the recordings with 28 degrees.

    Police are asking motorists to exercise caution when travelling through the Desert Road this evening, with extreme heat on the Central Plateau causing the tar seal on the road to melt and lift.

    The good weather is set to last until Saturday.

    HOT OUTLOOK

    New Zealanders are looking set to enjoy a long hot summer.

    Temperatures through to March are likely to be average or above average across the country, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said today.

    It was likely to be drier than average in the south, but rainfall in the north was expected to be normal or above normal.

    Niwa predicted more easterlies than normal in the north but lighter winds than normal in the south.

    Moderate La Nina conditions were likely to continue into autumn, it said.

    There was a slightly higher chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500km of the country during the cyclone season through to May.

    - with NZPA

    Issued at 03:23pm 08-Jan-2009

    BEATING THE HEAT

    MetService measured air temperatures up to 35.7 degrees Celsius in

    Christchurch early this afternoon, close to its January record high of 35.9

    in 1979. Hotter than normal temperatures are widespread over New Zealand

    today, with 30 plus conditions reported in many locations between Timaru

    and Gisborne.

    "This hot air is part of the weather system that brought temperatures to

    over 40 degrees in Sydney recently," commented MetService Weather

    Ambassador, Bob McDavitt. "The air is 20 to 25 degrees coming off the

    Tasman Sea and warming by around ten degrees when it crosses the Southern

    Alps and spreads over the Canterbury plains."

    Mr. McDavitt had some advice for people feeling stressed by this heat.

    "Drink more water, stay inside or go for a dip. We have more tips to help

    beat the heat at our http://www.metservice.com/default/index.php?alias=

    month_feature_feb_2007 web site."

    Temperatures near 30 degrees are forecast for Canterbury again on Friday

    and then a cooling southerly is expected to arrive on Saturday.

    For further information please contact:

    Bob McDavitt Weather Ambassador (09)377 4831

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    After hitting 36C yesterday, and forecast to hit 30C today, Christchurch forecast high for Saturday is 15C :wacko:

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    • 4 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Ridging is very persistent at the moment in the Tasman. After this brief, but bloody cold, southerly change today the high builds once more and hangs around all week. Good ol' summer! Bit worried about the subtropical low late in the week but hopefully it will skirt us!

    Looks like a nice day in Napier- 35C at 10:25AM!

    post-7526-1233437373_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Waitangi Day Weather

    Tomorrow is Waitangi Day. Of all the NZ Public Holidays, it is best situated to get the best weather. And this year looks typical of that.

    Subtropical ridging persists over the New Zealand area, whilst there is a frontal wave developing in the Tasman Sea. This should give some late rain to Fiordland and a showery southwest change overnight tomorrow to Southland and Otago.

    For Waitangi itself: Fine, with some passing clouds. A shower could develop on the easterly flow. High temperature should be about 25/26C, and the overnight low is unlikely to drop below 19/20C. Very standard weather for Northland in summer. Dewpoints will be in the region of 18C, so will feel quite warm in the middle of the day.

    In the long run, very high 850hPa temperatures (above 20C), coupled with a developing northwesterly flow will see almost everywhere in the east exceed 30C as the weekend progresses, mid 30s likely, high 30s possible.

    The tropical disturbance to our north thankfully has no direct impact on our weather. :o

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Tropics are ruining our weather right now. Very warm and humid across the north. Dewpoints up to 23C, with temperatures from mid to high 20s.

    Valid: Thu 12 Feb to Sun 15 Feb

    Issued: Tue 10 February 2009 at 0259 pm

    SWO Threat Situation valid from Thursday 12-Feb-2009 to Sunday 15-Feb-2009

    Issued by MetService at 1:44pm Tuesday 10th February 2009

    A trough should deepen as it moves over central New Zealand on Thursday bringing another surge of very moist subtropical air from northern Queensland and widespread rain over the North Island and northern parts of the South Island.

    Forecasters have moderate confidence of warning amounts in northern Westland, Buller and Nelson on Thursday, also from central Canterbury to Marlborough, Wairarapa and Wellington where rain will probably last into early Friday.

    Confidence is rising to high in the North Island as far north as Bay of Plenty southern Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato on Thursday and Friday morning, especially near the hill country where winds will be stronger.

    A cool drier southerly flow should spread over the south of the country on Thursday night and central parts on Friday (chilly for a time from Southland to Canterbury).

    A high is expected to move over southern and central New Zealand on Saturday but a northerly flow will probably bring rain to northern and western areas as far south as Buller late on Sunday.

    Farmers will be very happy however, as the brown fields and soil moisture deficits will be somewhat aided by this rain.

    post-7526-1234252153_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    Tropics are ruining our weather right now. Very warm and humid across the north. Dewpoints up to 23C, with temperatures from mid to high 20s.

    Valid: Thu 12 Feb to Sun 15 Feb

    Issued: Tue 10 February 2009 at 0259 pm

    SWO Threat Situation valid from Thursday 12-Feb-2009 to Sunday 15-Feb-2009

    Issued by MetService at 1:44pm Tuesday 10th February 2009

    A trough should deepen as it moves over central New Zealand on Thursday bringing another surge of very moist subtropical air from northern Queensland and widespread rain over the North Island and northern parts of the South Island.

    Forecasters have moderate confidence of warning amounts in northern Westland, Buller and Nelson on Thursday, also from central Canterbury to Marlborough, Wairarapa and Wellington where rain will probably last into early Friday.

    Confidence is rising to high in the North Island as far north as Bay of Plenty southern Coromandel Peninsula and Waikato on Thursday and Friday morning, especially near the hill country where winds will be stronger.

    A cool drier southerly flow should spread over the south of the country on Thursday night and central parts on Friday (chilly for a time from Southland to Canterbury).

    A high is expected to move over southern and central New Zealand on Saturday but a northerly flow will probably bring rain to northern and western areas as far south as Buller late on Sunday.

    Farmers will be very happy however, as the brown fields and soil moisture deficits will be somewhat aided by this rain.

    My partner and son are down on South Island at present and have enjoyed the recent 'heat'. How long do they reckon this 'english summer' is set to last down there? (they have another 9 days mooching around the North of South Island).

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
  • Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
    My partner and son are down on South Island at present and have enjoyed the recent 'heat'. How long do they reckon this 'english summer' is set to last down there? (they have another 9 days mooching around the North of South Island).

    The long term forecast is for the warm weather to continue into late Autumn. The east coast of both the north and south islands are starting to suffer a drought with no substantial rain for more weeks than I care to remember. I have been enjoying the excellent weather but winter will be upon us very soon and the rain and snow will be back.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
    My partner and son are down on South Island at present and have enjoyed the recent 'heat'. How long do they reckon this 'english summer' is set to last down there? (they have another 9 days mooching around the North of South Island).

    Well it's going to rain there considerably tomorrow!

    Then some blips the days after- a very cold southerly with 850hPa temps as low as -3C very briefly in the deep South.

    High pressure returns on the weekend, so it will be back to fine with sea breezes, and mid 20s for the top of the South. Definitely cooler than of late, the airmass is going to be cooler than recently, and the 500hPa ridging will be weakened.

    Meanwhile the hot weather looks like hanging on in the north for a day or two. Dewpoints of 24C recorded yesterday.

    To illustrate the contrast: this morning Dunedin at 5AM was 3C, whilst Gisborne was 24C.

    The drought should be over for Canterbury with this decent rain tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Thanks for that J07!

    Seeing as they've sweltered in Singapore, Ozz and North island I'm sure they'll be glad of the break (not!!!) :yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
    Thanks for that J07!

    Seeing as they've sweltered in Singapore, Ozz and North island I'm sure they'll be glad of the break (not!!!) :D

    Yes the rain is coming down quite well today, the brown fields will soon be green again- I can't wait!

    Some great contrasts still across the country. It was 28C in Napier today whilst only 9C in Central Otago.

    Dewpoints remain high in the North - Auckland saw three consecutive overnight lows of 22C, and daytime temperatures are in the mid to high 20s. A lot of people complaining about the conditions there- not surprisingly!

    Once this cool change comes through there should be a gradual improvement. No need to worry about Nelson, their standard summer forecast is fine apart from some afternoon showers about the ranges (Nelson has the most reliable sea breeze in NZ and it converges on the mountains). Marlborough, similarly fine. However, anywhere on the eastern coast will be quite exposed to what should be a vociferous southerly! Definitely not very summery! (But the taste of that southerly air....Mmmm.....mmmm!!!!).

    Currently in Wellington, very low visibility, steady rain. Temperature 20C, and Dewpoint 19C. Grotesque. Bring on the southerly change!

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    There's a 7PM temperature range of 28C in Gisborne and 10C in Queenstown.

    ...if there South Island is too cold for you then there's always Auckland. A high of 32C and a low of 18C, with gusty humid northerlies and rain. Can you say "yuck"? Cool southwest change looks like hitting really late, so tomorrow will be cooler for sure, they will be loving it up there.

    post-7526-1234420710_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    At 7PM yesterday, dewpoints ranged from 18C in Northland to -5C in Dunedin (where the temperature was 25C).

    Conditions at Cape Reinga horrible at the moment. 20/20 with gusts of 75mph.

    It's practically windless here with a classic northerly sky.

    Slow moving low from the tropics heading down. With the sluggish nature and long fetch of northerly flow, there should be an abundance of tropical moisture coming straight down. It merges with the more standard-fare depression in the Tasman Sea, and that system crosses the country early this weekend, followed by southwesterlies. An extensive ridge is keen to move in early next week. So no sign of an end to summer weather patterns yet. Just a quick glance at some MSL progs for next week shows typical summertime pattern of broad ridge - weak trough - broad ridge repeating itself around 40S. Doubtless though there will be a few "complications" that arise!

    chart5thmarch.gif.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
    Conditions at Cape Reinga horrible at the moment. 20/20 with gusts of 75mph.

    Memories.

    Horrible but spectacular.

    I spent a good few school holidays at my Aunts place (they used to run the school at Te Hapua, close to cape Reinga)

    I remember some spectacular gales up there... and loved spirits bay on those blowy days.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
    Memories.

    Horrible but spectacular.

    I spent a good few school holidays at my Aunts place (they used to run the school at Te Hapua, close to cape Reinga)

    I remember some spectacular gales up there... and loved spirits bay on those blowy days.

    Yes! I've never actually seen the view from up there, just mist and clouds! I think I remember driving through or past Te Hapua...isn't it the last township? Just north of Waitiki Landing.

    I heard the other day that they are sealing the road all the way up to Cape Reinga now, not sure if that's true though.

    Driving up that way, I was always surprised that the Peninsula was so thin. From the road you can just see hills for much of the way up, takes a little while before you see the sea. You're very lucky to have been able to spend so much time up there!

    (Have properly attached the chart this time)

    post-7526-1236210694_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Cape Reinga today at one point had a mean speed of 110km/h, with gusts to 155km/h, a temperature of 21C and relative humidity of 98%. Not pleasant at all!

    Here in Wellington it's 11:20PM, the temperature is 18C, dewpoints are 14C, and it is absolutely still. The Cicadas are making a right noise. A bit late in the season for them, in a few days all will be silent :good::):)

    Models still keen on a summery high in the Tasman next week. Very slow moving, very broad. Potential Omega block? May see things get hot in SE Australia depending on the orientation. Should be cool but mostly sunny over here, although minor features could bring some showers at times.

    The set-up appears similar to January, only the high will be at a higher latitude.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    Overnight lows failed to fall below 20C or 21C for a number of places, so possible March records there.

    Here it fell briefly to 17C, but rose above 20C by 7AM. It's currently 23/17, which is a high temperature for a March morning, and also quite high dewpoints for March.

    With a warm front lying stationary just upstream, the winds here (from the NW) are themselves warm and pleasant.

    In Whangarei, it is currently 25/22, so very warm and muggy there.

    Certainly not even remotely autumnal anyway.

    post-7526-1236293115_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    ...and probably not the best thing to do in a storm....

    from weatherwatch.co.nz

    post-7526-1236294809_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    11PM here:

    20C and 96% relative humidity. It's a bit like being in the bathroom straight after a shower!

    Today's most horrible Temp/Dewpoint combination was Whenuapai which saw a yucky 25/23 earlier this afternoon.

    Current hottest place is Christchurch with 24C and a moderate northerly. Highest temp today was Hanmer Springs with 30C.

    It feels more like January than March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Looks like being a fairly potent southerly after this northerly according to the latest GFS runs- perhaps a dramatic temperature switch? Those northerlies certainly don't sound like the equivalent of our "Spanish plumes"- one of the downsides of the climate of NZ perhaps.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    There's a few downsides to this climate (wind being a major one), but also quite a number of upsides.

    Thundery showers are expected tomorrow in the north with a cooler change in the early afternoon. Some thundery stuff kicked off this afternoon with sea breezes appearing in Northland. With all that heat and humidity around it only took a little convergence to set them off.

    The following is based off the UK model

    http://www.metservice.com/public/maps/rain...cast-7-day.html

    And suggests that the coldest air will never make it onto most of the country and be rapidly pushed each time to the east by the incoming ridge. By the end of next week the high should be holding firm in the Tasman or over the country (depending on the model...), although there will remain question marks as to what happens to ex TC Hamish (I wouldn't want to be on Australia's east coast over the week...).

    Wellington itself will see a few southerly changes with showers, but the winds ought to remain mostly northwesterly (the attached image shows a N/NW at Wellington, despite the wind barbs claiming a westerly- which never happens).

    So yes temperatures will be down, the humidity will be gone, but the North Island is likely to be pretty sunny and comfortable. The deep South will have some bracing winds and cold nights. We've already seen -1C in Ranfurly - in February for God's sake! - and I'm not certain if the ground is yet cold enough to allow for a frost, even in the south.

    Despite several cool changes brushing through, the majority are what in the UK would be called topplers. And really the place to be (or not to be!) is the Chatham Islands, which seems to bear the full brunt of each and every successive blast!

    I've scrawled some rough frontal positions on the Tues 1PM forecast chart.

    I'm not too concerned about the impact of these southerlies, but you may yet prove to be right!

    Another attached image shows us lying in the warm sector at 7PM this evening, the cold front hits us early afternoon tomorrow, so it's possible we may have to endure 18C-20C overnight lows tonight with dewpoints about the same. Might be near to a March overnight record?

    post-7526-1236340534_thumb.png

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    post-7526-1236342516_thumb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    There's a few downsides to this climate (wind being a major one), but also quite a number of upsides.

    Thundery showers are expected tomorrow in the north with a cooler change in the early afternoon. Some thundery stuff kicked off this afternoon with sea breezes appearing in Northland. With all that heat and humidity around it only took a little convergence to set them off.

    Ah, I wondered about that! I was looking over the charts for New Zealand just last night and thinking "this is the NZ equivalent of the classic Spanish plume thunderstorm setup in the UK" and thinking "surely there has to be some thundery activity from this".

    Again thanks for the many updates- it is giving a real insight into the climate of your country.

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    Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL

    This is not a classic for thundery activity.

    Most thundery place in NZ is Okarito on the West Coast. A place that gets enormous quantities of rain (in the region of 6 metres a year I think). So the instability there is always embedded in fronts, and is released by the air being forced to rise from sea level to more than 3000 metres within about 20 miles.

    Most NI thunder is in Spring/Summer from sea breeze convergence, a bit like today.

    There is also the probably more classic thundery showers on the southerly change. This happened impressively in early January this year, but really happens all year. It helps to have very strong foehn winds ahead of the front, so plenty of heat and convergence as the cold change comes through.

    Frequently though, we are held back by a lack of cold upper air. This is what is so typical in tropical sourced northerlies. What good is all this heat and humidity if the 500hPa temperatures are something absurd like -6C? So the thunder tomorrow will only be triggered by a cold front coming through.

    Not sure if NZ is my country, I'm not even a citizen.

    I'll never quite get to grips with the intricacies of the climate here, especially places like Canterbury and Central Otago. I watch them in Spring hitting 25C seemingly every day, very little rain and abundant sunshine. The soil dries out and sometimes blows out to sea. Then summer hits and they start reaching 35C with some frequency. And then, February 2009 happens, they get monthly sunshine hours below 150, temperatures are heartily subdued, it's grey, wet and cool.

    Fickle.

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