The Run Up To Christmas Based On The 12z Gfs

[J10]

Latest Mean Pressure situation, and no real surprises.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

A dry and settled Christmas it is then! Oh well, perhaps New Year will throw up something more interesting.

[Nick L]

Eagerly waiting tonight's Christmas ramp TEITS!

[yamkin]

Eagerly waiting tonight's Christmas ramp TEITS!

I've waited up just to get TEITS's report. I sound like a little boy who can't wait for a candy bar

[J10]

Today's 12 Hz Op Run

Ensemble mean from 18Hz, trending in right direction

[Nick L]

What a waste of a Xmas, 6ºC, no weather, nothing. Blurg......

You Scots get enough wintry fun!!

[TEITS]

General synopsis

A large area of high pressure centred over Scandinavia is likely to bring ever increasing colder temps from the E during this period

General description of the weather.

During Christmas Eve and Christmas Day the weather looks mainly fine and settled with frost and fog at night. The temps are likely to be between 5-7C although colder in some locations.

Boxing Day is when a change is likely. During the day the temps will become progressively colder and showers in E Anglia/SE will fall as snow. At this stage these showers appear to be light and scattered. During the evening and overnight the snow showers could become heavier and more widespread and spread as far inland as the Midlands. A slight covering of snow is possible during the overnight period. The temperatures are likely to be around 1-3C although some locations could struggle to rise muce above freezing.

GEFS ensembles.

Im only posting the SLP ensembles because I personally find the 850hpa ensembles as being misleading at the moment. As you can see high pressure is the main trend during this period and most likely beyond.

Due to the current model output and the fact that some people might be travelling during the period between Christmas and New Year I shall start posting my thoughts during this period from tomorrow onwards.

Sorry im late posting this but I accidentally deleted my post and had to retype!

Edited December 19, 2008 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[yamkin]

General synopsis

A large area of high pressure centred over Scandinavia is likely to bring ever increasing colder temps from the E during this period

General description of the weather.

During Christmas Eve and Christmas Day the weather looks mainly fine and settled with frost and fog at night. The temps are likely to be between 5-7C although colder in some locations.

Boxing Day is when a change is likely. During the day the temps will become progressively colder and showers in E Anglia/SE will fall as snow. At this stage these showers appear to be light and scattered. During the evening and overnight the snow showers could become heavier and more widespread and spread as far inland as the Midlands. A slight covering of snow is possible during the overnight period. The temperatures are likely to be around 1-3C although some locations could struggle to rise muce above freezing.

GEFS ensembles.

Im only posting the SLP ensembles because I personally find the 850hpa ensembles as being misleading at the moment. As you can see high pressure is the main trend during this period and most likely beyond.

Due to the current model output and the fact that some people might be travelling during the period between Christmas and New Year I shall start posting my thoughts during this period from tomorrow onwards.

Sorry im late posting this but I accidentally deleted my post and had to retype!

Brilliant post.

[TEITS]

Im just going to post the 12Z chart tonight.

Simple reason is the actual weather conditions haven't changed very much but a great deal of uncertainity has appeared on the models which could affect Boxing day. Overall though settled, dry, frost at night but turning colder on Boxing day is the theme.

[Guest]

Transport the high centered over Sweden to the area between Iceland and Greenland, allow it to connect with a Greenland, northern Scandinavian and Russian High, not forgetting to move the jet streams to allow for this, replace the high over the UK with a low, though a little further south, then we could have fun!

[stormchaser1]

I AGREE with TEITS post very mild on xmas day

nigel

[azores92]

I AGREE with TEITS post very mild on xmas day

nigel

i'd say more around average, before the bonechill arrives on boxing day.

[TEITS]

Little change tonight so I shall be brief.

High pressure to the NE will dominate this period.

Christmas Eve & Day are likely to be dry, settled, fairly cloudy with temps around 5-7C.

Boxing day will see br brighter and colder as E,ly winds start spreading from the continent. The temps are likely to be around 4C and will quickly drop in the evening as frost & fog sets in.

I am going to post my thoughts between Christmas and the New Year but at the moment model disagreement is making this rather difficult. Once this disagreement is resolved I shall post my views.

[Nick L]

I think Christmas is pretty much nailed on now really, average best describes it really! Thanks for taking the time to do this thread TEITS, much appreciated.

[TEITS]

I think Christmas is pretty much nailed on now really, average best describes it really! Thanks for taking the time to do this thread TEITS, much appreciated.

I just wish I had a little more to talk about.

Still im looking forward to commenting on the model output from Xmas until New Year.

[Guest]

Pity really, that high pressure over Newfoundland, nearly joining up with the Scandinavian high should be about 10 degrees further north. We will wait to see how it develops from there - we live in hopes though not holding our breath.

[TEITS]

Very little change tonight.

The theme continues of temperatures being around average on Christmas eve/day. It is still expected to turn colder on Boxing day and also brighter.

Im going to have a quick look at the overall pattern from the 27th to New years day. I shall post the 12Z GFS New Years Eve chart every day on this thread.

The weekend of the 27th/28th Dec will continue with the cold trend with max temps around 1-3C/min temps around -2C. There does remain the possibility of light snow flurries occuring in E Anglia/SE although at the moment the risk remains small.

29th Dec - 1st Jan is when the forecast could become tricky. At this stage the pattern looks cold but the type of cold spell is uncertain. Some models suggest a continuation of the dry, cold, frosty spell of weather whereas others suggest the high pressure may move further NW. If this happens then there is always the risk of more widespread snow although detail at this stage is impossible. At the moment I would say the chances of the high pressure moving NW is around 70%.

[ukmoose]

Just too much cloud trapped inside the HP to allow frosts to form which did seem likely a few days ago.

Fog too could have been a possibility. On that subject, despite the line in 'Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer' I'm not sure I can recall a foggy Christmas Eve at all! Anyone?

Nice thread though Teits - thanks.

[TEITS]

Just had a quick peek at the GFS runs on this thread and overall the correct pattern was suggested from fairly early on i.e HP. Obviously the positioning of the HP changed somewhat as did the details but the ensembles were very useful during this period.

My only regret is this thread was rather boring due to lack of anything to talk about another than HP. This is one of the reasons why I haven't updated the thread because the pattern had become set.

Anyway hope you enjoyed the thread as this will be my last post on here.

[cold snap]

high pressure well and truly incharge

good to see there wasnt if any disagrement about this over the last couple of days

Edited December 24, 2008 by cold snap

[chionomaniac]

Just had a quick peek at the GFS runs on this thread and overall the correct pattern was suggested from fairly early on i.e HP. Obviously the positioning of the HP changed somewhat as did the details but the ensembles were very useful during this period.

My only regret is this thread was rather boring due to lack of anything to talk about another than HP. This is one of the reasons why I haven't updated the thread because the pattern had become set.

Anyway hope you enjoyed the thread as this will be my last post on here.

Just would like to say thanks TEITS for your efforts in this thread. I'm sorry you couldn't provide us all with a white Christmas but do have an enjoyable one whatever the weather!

c

[Guest]

Yes an innocuous high pressure with nasty clouds and inversions - pretty boring at the moment