The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[len]

"The Stratosphere as a puppeteer of European Winter" a pdf download here......

http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...03/epn04302.pdf

I meant to ask.........I'd really appreciate some expert evaluation of this

[johnholmes]

not a member so it won't download

probably best if you pm, GP, Brick or possibly Steve for their views

[Guest zebra danio]

Only one of Steve M's ingredients providing the coldest start to the winter for over 30 yrs is not very 'modernesque' as the stylists would call it IMO

Be nice to see just how much an extra one would do lol!

Edited December 15, 2008 by zebra danio

[Weather-history]

a thought provoking post there Steve and this comment from above

The interesting question IMHO is what has caused the increase in zonal flow?

what indeed? Is it the overall temperature rise for the whole globe (average) or something else?

It was a question that was asked in the late 1930s. Certainly there was a recognition of an increase in the strength of the westerly flow of the time with a deeper Aleutian and Icelandic low and a stronger sub-tropical high pressure belt at the time.

Edited December 15, 2008 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

that is even more interesting there Kevin, have tyou got the link for the 30's comments please?

[len]

not a member so it won't download

probably best if you pm, GP, Brick or possibly Steve for their views

I got it to download by going to this page...and hitting "pdf" under where it says Table of contents

http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...2/epn04302.html

Len

[johnholmes]

thanks for that, copied and printed so I'll go and read it, no sure I will be able to make comment though!

[492]

A rather depressing and yet honest post from Steve which I have to say is difficult to argue against.

Have E,lys disappeared for good?

Well let me put it this way if I thought this was true I would probably stop posting on this forum during the winter months and would probably find a new hobby. Some will probably moan about my attitude but if I was honest every November I look forward to the winter months and all im interested in is seeking the notorious E,ly. Some will think this is OTT but if you live in E Anglia/SE and experienced the winters of the 80's you will know what im on about.

To give you an example of my desire for an E,ly with sub -15C upper temps I shall tell you what I would do if one was showing at +144. After viewing the 18Z I would try and get some sleep although I would struggle to fall asleep as my mind would be on the 0Zs. I would set the alarm for 3.45am, make a cup of coffee and switch my computer on. If the 0Zs continue with the E,ly I would return to bed for a few hrs before the 06Z GFS run come out. I would repeat this pattern right up until the actual arrival of the E,lys. Once those snow showers arrived I would probably be awake all night watching the radar and looking outside at the lamppost. During the day I would spend many hrs watching the forecasts from the BBC and I would especially enjoy reading the teletext forecasts saying "prolonged periods of snow with max temps of -5C".

Im not sure if Steve would be as extreme as me but we both know exactly what an E,ly can bring to our locations hence our disappointment when it goes pearshaped.

Forgot to add that by day 5 I would probably miss all the snow because I would be suffering from exhaustion.

This made me laugh as I thought I was the only one !. My neighbours must wonder why there is a torch been shining out of the window in the middle of the night during cold spells.

[D KARLSON]

Really steve come on take some lithium yes recent winters have trended towards mild and we only get breif hints at the synoptics of the past but that doesnt mean to say it cant change and i think some of your reaction is a kneejerk reaction to us returning to our mild souwesterlies after a prolonged period of cold.

To take the official line the met office has gone for a cold start followed by average january and february and their thesis for this is a prolonged La nina which has a tendency to give these conditions ,but obviously they threw in their caveat that chaos theory of global forecasting meant that they were not 100% sure , maening jan and feb could be as cold too.

From my point of veiw it will be very interesting to see if their La nina forecast pans out as we head into jan , its certainly spot on so far with the cold start and the jet diving southwards,obviously we will have to endure this mild bout of weather before we see anything interesting again but thats the weather it cant be all treats and the cold inversion forecast is nice from my point of veiw

[The PIT]

I think that's the longest winter is over post ever.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i used to look forward to winter as a little lad guaranteeing cold and loads of snow, not sure if i look forward to winter nowadays, with grey damp and wind/rain and flooding, im very negative about anything wintry here since jan 2000, cos its just so unlikely

field between town and wildwood flooded now just like it was on 20/21st July 07

summers of 07 and 08 (and even aug 06), who knows maybe the start of the modern summer

[ribster]

Excellent post Steve Murr. I can't compliment that post enough and agree entirely with SP's comments.

TA

Don't quite understand why you have quoted my post, no disputing it's a very good post. Although you cannot deny it is in response to the recent let down, and is in complete contrast to Steves earlier posts this winter.

Same thing happens with people every year though.

I do wish you would stop baiting me though!

Edited December 15, 2008 by ribster

[phil nw.]

Thanks Steve for a very informative piece.

Reading between the lines i feel your post is tinged with disappointment at the disappearance of the possible Christmas Easterly that was showing last week and this is what motivated your research.

[Cal]

Great post Steve. Would be a little ironic if a bitterly cold easterly developed after xmas

[weather eater]

Really steve come on take some lithium yes recent winters have trended towards mild

Since 1987/88 in my book that’s a bit more than a few.

Yes its been a great start this winter, but if it goes pear-shaped from here, then that fact will quickly be forgotten. Although various reasons some natural some man made have been touted for the recent glut of poor UK winters none of them suggest that its impossible to get a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere, only just less likely.

As we have seen some decent winter spells in recent years in other areas of the Northern hemisphere, then that seems to suggest that it is the, poor for cold under normal circumstances position of the UK on the eastern side of the Atlantic that has made us unable to break that run of mild winters and this poor run is without doubt being caused by atmospheric warming changing weather patterns across the northern hemisphere, regardless of the warming being man made or otherwise. For those that believe that this is a natural phenomena it is worth baring in mind that even if this is the case we have no evidence that this will change soon and could it could well last several more decades.

[SMU]

Evening Guys- I will endever to have a look at the questions posted over the last few pages, anything in depth I can t do for now as Im at work-

Just a couple of bits though- 'White Xmas' & a few others-

This post was initally born out of frustration, but to be honest it had been a long time coming, I wanted to post this long before Winter started but never really had the time-

What I am NOT doing is throwing in the towel at day 15, certainly not- beacuse I do believe I never actually said these Synoptics were gone forever-

What I said is they MAY be gone forever & thus far this Winter hasnt provided any evidence to think otherwise-

People who know me - know I am 99% of the time overly optimistic witgh the models, however thats now been replaced more with the realistic approach-

I am 100% NOT ruling out clasic winter weather- all I am pointing out is that there is compelling evidence to suggest the trends are very much against it- & I do want it to be the point of difference between myself & IB-

As for dec 05- Sorry- no cold pool..... a half day with proper air doesnt count- see the -15c isotherm thread-

RIBSTER- I cant quite see where your coming from with your comments-

Look at the Net weather video-

I clearly said a cold december- especially start with the atlantic block, then downhill from there especially of the PAC JET & Stratosphere are poor- for the rest of the Winter-

They MAY have been edited out- I doubt it- but 100% those were my feelings-

S

Edited December 15, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Snowyowl9]

2005/2006 broke that mould of west/SW winds, but why does it happen in the middle of a decade, same goes for 1995/96 but to a lesser extent, there were more east winds winter from february 2005 to March 2006 since february 1986 infact but not as cold of course so east winds still happen.

Edited December 15, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Excelent post steve and the strat graph is a real eye opener.The key question is what is driving those cold temps up there since the late 80's.

[andy_leics22]

Come on guys, Steve is just as much a snow lover as the rest of us but he is telling it how he sees it. I'm sure he would love a severe snowy snap which leaves much of Britain under snow (South East preferably 3 feet deep, hehe) But if he sees it being a mainly zonal dominated winter then he isn't going to fob us off and tell us we might get a nice cold and below average winter.

Edited December 15, 2008 by andy_leics22

[Diane_W]

I don't know if this is relevant to this topic, or if its been posted already but here goes.

I was listening to Radio 4 this evening and they had a long piece about the mild winter that Russia is experiencing.

They were saying that they have had no snow to speak of, and the Bears in the Moscow Zoo haven't even bothered to go into hibernation.

According to the report Russian winters have been getting a lot milder over the last 20 years, and the Moscovites are not very happy about it.

[chionomaniac]

Steve a great post, well thought out and presented. I feel that an Easterly is not out of the question but is probably less likely. I agree the cooler on average stratosphere is responsible for the position and strength of the tropospheric polar vortex and the associated jetstream path since the mid 80's.

The famous 1991 Easterly followed a not inconsiderable mid winter SSW in January 1991

Do you not think that if we had a mid winter warming such as that in January this (or more likely next) year that northern blocking could occur in the right area for us to get an Easterly. Yes the cooler stratosphere will have an effect for a default winter pattern but surely a SSW throws all this out of the window?

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes the 'westerly' flow dominance has been there because of 'external' forcing. It is my opinion that solar and lunar cycles have directed the hemispheric flow over periods like last 20 years or so. The jet has/did move north. So far we have had good and lengthy cold spells without the classic set up or negative AO. Why? Cyclically I believe the changing of the suns output and what GWO has hit on have sent a signal to start shifting the jetstream south. Maybe the 'even larger teapot' is a viable term BUT not in the way IB thinks ie permanent or AGW driven.

I think this winters postscript will be interesting

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Excelent post steve and the strat graph is a real eye opener.The key question is what is driving those cold temps up there since the late 80's.

Depletion of stratospheric ozone and an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/20c.html

[NorthantsSnow]

Sorry but I can't take this thread seriously when the December CET is currently over 2C below average at the present time.

[Snowyowl9]

Late Feb and Dec 2005 brought a few ice days to Kent from NE'ly airmasses. The classic synoptics were not in place for that long although we had decent snow cover locally on both occasions. As you say sustaining it seems to be the problem these days. Oddly despite this the last 4 winters have been slightly better for snowfall than the period 1997/98- 2003/4. However I do vaguely remember the 1972 - 77 period having not too many classic easterly spells either.

Yes I believe the easterly flow is making a comeback of sorts in recent years, with severe cold like 1987 is an extreme event for upper air coldest ever across the UK.

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2005_weather.htm

February 2005 was the longest easterly since the legendary february 1986 and that will always take some beating only february 1947 was colder.

Come on guys, Steve is just as much a snow lover as the rest of us but he is telling it how he sees it. I'm sure he would love a severe snowy snap.

Severe cold from the east, yes that has been missing february 1991 was the last,with a scandi high lasting 2 weeks.

Edited December 15, 2008 by Snowyowl9