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The Curse Of The Modern Winter


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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham

Global warming isn't something to buy in to or not. It's there. Fact. (Even the Antarctic is no longer immune it would seem). In itself, it is not a theory but based on massive amounts of data.

What's causing the warming and how long it will continue is open to much debate. Natural cycles, man-made emissions, combination of the two - this is where the grey area lies.

I think it is unlikely that the actual warming is in fact what is causing our mild run of winters. I think it relates more to what Steve said at the start of this thread and what TOM referred to in a post a few months back. I think the real impact of GW is a few years down the line. 10 to 50 maybe.

Looking at the upcoming cold spell, it seems the curse is about to strike once more (not many will be surprised, though many more will still be sorely disappointed. It's just how it is nowadays - we can get close it seems, very close even (none closer than this winter) but factors now always conspire to prevent real cold from spending any extended period over the UK.

18 years since the last widespread severe cold spell for the UK is a long time in human terms, but not that long in climate terms. Maybe next winter it will revert...or the one after.

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire
Global warming isn't something to buy in to or not. It's there. Fact.

What a load of rubbish that statement is! There is no "facts" to prove that Global Warming is there. I think you seem to have been naiively drawn in by the Governments excuse for raising taxes. The only real problem we have are our diminishing natural resources. To say that Global Warming is there for a fact is just as you say "having a blinkered view".

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
What a load of rubbish that statement is! There is no "facts" to prove that Global Warming is there. I think you seem to have been naiively drawn in by the Governments excuse for raising taxes. The only real problem we have are our diminishing natural resources. To say that Global Warming is there for a fact is just as you say "having a blinkered view".

This is the reason why eventually our planet will cease to exist (due to lack of resources yes, but also chemical pollution of oceans change of atmospheric chemistry etc). These few sentences have framed the arrogance and ill caring nature of mankind. Diminishing natural resources is a very very serious matter not 'only' a matter.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
What a load of rubbish that statement is! There is no "facts" to prove that Global Warming is there.

Just to get this straight, WX: are you saying that (1) the Globe has not warmed in recent decades? Or that (2) it was warming, but it was just part of a cycle, and it's now stopped? Or (3) it is warming, but it's nothing to do with us, even in part - it's all natural?

(2) & (3) are still open for fairly reasonable debate. I am...um...surprised if you believe the first.

But this is really a discussion for the Climate Change area. Perhaps you could post a reply within one of the threads there - especially if it you maintain (1) is true?

Ossie

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

As idiotic as the reaction of "it's global warming" to the summer of 2006; but that was considered not only to be an ok reaction, but actually endorsed by some authorities.

Mr. D's historical data threads are very illuminating when it comes to folk of the day, bemoaning our warmer winters and lack of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
This is the reason why eventually our planet will cease to exist (due to lack of resources yes, but also chemical pollution of oceans change of atmospheric chemistry etc). These few sentences have framed the arrogance and ill caring nature of mankind. Diminishing natural resources is a very very serious matter not 'only' a matter.

Seconded.....people are so selfish that all they care about is getting in their wee motor, their freedom, their money, their libido, their health, their life...and to be honest it seems to me humanity has grown so bad in this matter that they've forgotten the beauty that surrounds them, how they were made, why we survive. Fact of the matter is humans have too much brain power and not enough thought processes to go with it. We are so smart yet so Dumb its unbelievable. Humans are a parasite in the way we just think we are #1 and deserve everything the world has to offer, we waste resources, we eat anything and everything, we undermine all other living creatures and we blind ourselves to any disasters that loom because all we care about is LIVING FOR TODAY!

The human emotion is a wasted thing for the majority, because the only thing its used for is to manipulate, decieve and mistreat others around them, it never seems to be used for the good of mankind.

I laugh when people post up how sorry they feel for a disaster that has happened or when people are killed......because most couldn't care less and they only care because they feel compelled to do so.

Rant over.

P.S Im not saying everyone is like this, in fact those who live in poverty and struggle to survive are probably more likely to feel alive than anyone who doesn't.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Mods, please remove above post, its too harsh.

I'd rather ay this!

I Think we should accept that we made the world what it is today and thats all there is to it, now what we gonna do about it? Sit on our fingers and do nothing? Because this is most peoples attitude to the declining resources, animal extinction, warming of our climate, etc etc. or are we going to change our selfish and silly ways and begin to act like a normal animal rather than a parasite?

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Posted
  • Location: Ballater, Aberdeenshire
  • Location: Ballater, Aberdeenshire
Global warming isn't something to buy in to or not. It's there. Fact. (Even the Antarctic is no longer immune it would seem). In itself, it is not a theory but based on massive amounts of data.

What's causing the warming and how long it will continue is open to much debate. Natural cycles, man-made emissions, combination of the two - this is where the grey area lies.

I think it is unlikely that the actual warming is in fact what is causing our mild run of winters. I think it relates more to what Steve said at the start of this thread and what TOM referred to in a post a few months back. I think the real impact of GW is a few years down the line. 10 to 50 maybe.

Looking at the upcoming cold spell, it seems the curse is about to strike once more (not many will be surprised, though many more will still be sorely disappointed. It's just how it is nowadays - we can get close it seems, very close even (none closer than this winter) but factors now always conspire to prevent real cold from spending any extended period over the UK.

18 years since the last widespread severe cold spell for the UK is a long time in human terms, but not that long in climate terms. Maybe next winter it will revert...or the one after.

Have you not seen this recent article :http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/4332784/Despite-the-hot-air-the-Antarctic-is-not-warming-up.html

Honestly, even a little objectivity would be useful in this debate.

As you will see from this, the Antarctic projections were based on seriously flawed models which were publicised widely by the GW supporting media.

Whatever is happening with the climate, this sort of reporting only discredits the science.

I remain open-minded...

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
18 years since the last widespread severe cold spell for the UK is a long time in human terms, but not that long in climate terms. Maybe next winter it will revert...or the one after.

I suspect so considering Global Cooling is taking shape.

Just don't inform the scaremongering 'warmers that... :)

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
This is the reason why eventually our planet will cease to exist (due to lack of resources yes, but also chemical pollution of oceans change of atmospheric chemistry etc). These few sentences have framed the arrogance and ill caring nature of mankind. Diminishing natural resources is a very very serious matter not 'only' a matter.

Our planet will still be here, and it WILL recover. Its just that it will be too harsh for us before it does recover. We are a threat, and nature has its own reaction which results in us loosing out.

:)

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire
This is the reason why eventually our planet will cease to exist (due to lack of resources yes, but also chemical pollution of oceans change of atmospheric chemistry etc). These few sentences have framed the arrogance and ill caring nature of mankind. Diminishing natural resources is a very very serious matter not 'only' a matter.

How ironic your name is Prudence. I have yet to see any especially after that comment. I don't know where you get off calling me arrogant maybe you think you are special. Yes it is a serious matter I never said it wasn't, so what is the point of your post? Just feel like having an argument? There is no doubt pollution is there but this does NOT mean there is global warming, it means that there is a polluted atmosphere. There is a difference you know Mr. Prudence. I would appreciate if you could understand the actual post before you comment

Just to get this straight, WX: are you saying that (1) the Globe has not warmed in recent decades? Or that (2) it was warming, but it was just part of a cycle, and it's now stopped? Or (3) it is warming, but it's nothing to do with us, even in part - it's all natural?

(2) & (3) are still open for fairly reasonable debate. I am...um...surprised if you believe the first.

But this is really a discussion for the Climate Change area. Perhaps you could post a reply within one of the threads there - especially if it you maintain (1) is true?

Ossie

Hi Osmposm :)

What I am saying is number 2 in your list.

Edited by WhiteXmas
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  • 3 weeks later...

Sorry to say it Steve but I think you have ended up with egg on your face considering what is upon us.

And to answer your question noggin, there is no such thing as a "even larger teapot". This is just a silly theory/global warming conspiracy. This winter is half way there to proving this.

I Bump this thread to quite easily put the Winter of 08/09 in the 'safe' zone for not changing the curse of Anything-

Ive even highlighted the post above from 30th Jan-

Egg on my face-??

An Easterly that lasted ONE DAY- It didnt even touch the sides im Afraid-

I also Note- The pressure over Svalbard ( up till feb 15th) hasnt exceeded 552 DAM all Winter- another nail in the modern V historic coffin-

This winter we have been blessed with the mean trough to the SE, sadly this hasnt been accompanied by any High pressure to the North or in the Key regions north if the UK, the masses of snow fall in the South west & some of the SHires has been exremely lucky, & whilst very picturesque sadly doesnt mask the same reasons for failure this Winter that have been there since 1988-

No high lattitude blocking ( or not enough)

Not enough weakened Westerly flow-

Not enough Amplitude in the Jet-

Zero Blocking over Greenland...

The list goes on- safe for another year- the only salvation is that If the mean trough sets up to the SE again next winter then this 08/09 Winter 'could' have been a transition year-

S

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Posted
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl

I Bump this thread to quite easily put the Winter of 08/09 in the 'safe' zone for not changing the curse of Anything-

Ive even highlighted the post above from 30th Jan-

Egg on my face-??

An Easterly that lasted ONE DAY- It didnt even touch the sides im Afraid-

I also Note- The pressure over Svalbard ( up till feb 15th) hasnt exceeded 552 DAM all Winter- another nail in the modern V historic coffin-

This winter we have been blessed with the mean trough to the SE, sadly this hasnt been accompanied by any High pressure to the North or in the Key regions north if the UK, the masses of snow fall in the South west & some of the SHires has been exremely lucky, & whilst very picturesque sadly doesnt mask the same reasons for failure this Winter that have been there since 1988-

No high lattitude blocking ( or not enough)

Not enough weakened Westerly flow-

Not enough Amplitude in the Jet-

Zero Blocking over Greenland...

The list goes on- safe for another year- the only salvation is that If the mean trough sets up to the SE again next winter then this 08/09 Winter 'could' have been a transition year-

S

Amazingly negative. The fact that we've had sooo much snow is testament to the fact that the UK can do sooooo well under not such ideal conditions. Imagine if we did have the northern blocking then look how things would have turned up.

I think this Winter has dented the even larger teapot theory. Most of the winter, the jet has been virtually non existent for the UK and has tracked further south giving storms to Southern France. The cold zonality spell of Jan is testimony to this. With the jet behaving how it has been, I don't understand all the negativity.

Very few times this Winter have I had daytime temps of double digits- a few days in Dec, very few in Jan and none in Feb thus far. It is certainly notable. This has also been an extremely frosty winter.

You tell me how often in the past have we had....

2ft of snowfall in the SW?

8 inches of snow in C.London?

Sea freezing at Padstow?

-19C in parts of Scotland??

Snow at St Marys?

Snow in October?

ALL IN ONE SEASON!!

Regards, hgb

Edited by high ground birmingham
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Amazingly negative. The fact that we've had sooo much snow is testament to the fact that the UK can do sooooo well under not such ideal conditions. Imagine if we did have the northern blocking then look how things would have turned up.

Negative but accurate.

What Steve is referring to is the actual synoptics rather than what snowfall we have seen this winter. Overall we may of seen quiet a few snow events but synoptically speaking this winter has been generally poor. There has only been two occasions when upper temps dropped below -10C and in both occasions this lasted around 24hrs.

My summary of this winter would be this.

1. Early Dec- cold NW,lys due to the jet running NW-SE.

2. Mid Dec-Xmas- mild.

3. Xmas-New Year- surface cold due to HP over the continent but a 24hrs spell of cold E,lys due to surface HP centred over Scotland.

4. Mild mid Jan-end Jan.

5. Early Feb- mid Feb-24hr E,ly followed by marginal snow events with upper temps only around -4C.

What this winter has been lacking is max temps remaining below 0C with the exception of the surface cold at xmas. The simple reason for this is the lack of N,ly blocking bringing very cold upper temps from the E/NE.

I joined this forum in Oct 04 and with Feb 05 being the exception I still wait for a decent cold spell synoptically speaking.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Isn't saying despite the snow and the cold, synoptically it's been poor rather like bemoaning your team's 4-0 win because none of the goals came from open-play?

I suppose your right in a way.

Sometimes you can have far better synoptics and yet far less snowfall. The chart below is a great example of this because I didn't see much in the way of snowfall and yet synoptically speaking these charts are superb.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050222.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050225.gif

However the point im making is if the UK is going to experience a cold spell that brings prolonged cold with plenty of ice days then you simply need charts like Feb 05. The only reason this didn't really deliver is the time of year and the synoptics that preceeded this event. Unfortunately during this winter we haven't seen anything like Feb 05 synoptically speaking which is why im slightly disappointed.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
I suppose your right in a way.

Sometimes you can have far better synoptics and yet far less snowfall. The chart below is a great example of this because I didn't see much in the way of snowfall and yet synoptically speaking these charts are superb.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050222.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050225.gif

However the point im making is if the UK is going to experience a cold spell that brings prolonged cold with plenty of ice days then you simply need charts like Feb 05. The only reason this didn't really deliver is the time of year and the synoptics that preceeded this event. Unfortunately during this winter we haven't seen anything like Feb 05 synoptically speaking which is why im slightly disappointed.

In terms of deep cold air this winter has indeed failed. So far this winter we have had -10ºC 850's over some part of the country for maybe 2-3 days. Compare that with other years in the last 30 or so.

-10ºC 850s from 1980 (winter months only)

Winter (no of days) Dates QBO average

79/80 (4) 1-2/1/80,1-2/2/80. (-10.92)

80/81 (10) 5/1/81,11/1/81,13/1/81,16/1/81,11/2/81,19-21/2/81,23-24/2/81. (8.32)

81/82 (7) 18/12/81,6-10/1/82,27/1/82. (-13.18)

82/83 ( 8 ) 22-23/12/82,3/2/83,8-9/2/83,11-13/2/83. (10.87)

83/84 (1) 10/12/83. (-11.14)

84/85 (15) 5-8/1/85,14-17/1/85,26-27/1/85,9-11/2/85,14-15/2/85. (-1.44)

85/86 (20) 26-29/12/85,25/1/86,6-10/2/86,15/2/86,19-24/2/86,26-28/2/86. (9.47)

86/87 (11) 11-15/1/87,15-19/2/87,23-24/2/87. (-10.6)

87/88 (3) 25-26/2/88,29/2/88) (7.46)

88/89 (1) 16/2/89. (-2.95)

89-90 (0) None. (-9.66)

90/91 (7) 8/12/90,19/12/90,7-11/2/91. (9.28)

91-92 (0) None. (-13.66)

92/93 (3) 25/1/93,27-28/2/93. (9.54)

93/94 (3) 17/1/94,21-22/2/94. (-7.83)

94/95 (4) 1-2/1/95,30/1/95,8-9/2/95. (7.44)

95/96 (11) 6/12/95,20-21/12/95,27/12/95,26-27/1/96,4/2/96,8/2/96,19-21/2/96. (-5.75)

96/97 (3) 31/12/96,2/1/97,4/1/97. (-3.83)

97-98 (0) None. (-1.01)

98/99 (5) 7-10/2/99,17/2/99. (1.66)

99/00 (3) 18-20/12/99. (5.16)

00/01 (1) 25/2/01. (-15.26)

01/02 (3) 22/12/01,26/12/01,25/1/02,24/2/02. (4.71)

02/03 (3) 7/1/03,30-31/1/03. (-1.11)

03/04 (5) 22/12/03,28/1/04,23/2/04,25-26/2/04) (-4.54)

04/05 (6) 19-20/2/05,23-24/2/05,27-28/2/05. (0.31)

05/06 (4) 17/12/05,29/12/05,9/2/06,28/2/06. (-18.37)

06/07 (1) 23/1/07. (3.75)

07/08 (1) 2/2/08. (-12.2)

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
Isn't saying despite the snow and the cold, synoptically it's been poor rather like bemoaning your team's 4-0 win because none of the goals came from open-play?

I suppose it depends what you prefer, cold and snow or a computer generated pressure map. I do agree with what has been said in this thread to an extent though. Most of the snow this year has been, apart from the blizzard in the south west recently, in the places that always get the most snow, i.e east cumbria, county durham, yorkshire pennines, east wales and the scottish highlands, and as a result has not been remarkable really other than compared to the last few washouts. Look at Mr Data's thread on late season snow, there is a picture of snow in Ormskirk in May, I'd be very suprised if at any stage this winter snow has settled in Ormskirk for any longer than an hour or two. The lack of a proper Greenland High or something similar in recent years means lowland coastal areas continue to see little snow.

Edited by trickydicky
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
I joined this forum in Oct 04 and with Feb 05 being the exception I still wait for a decent cold spell synoptically speaking.

Late Feb - March 2006?

An easterly with high retrograding to produce a northerly then we had a Scandi high stalling a front and then a return to an easterly flow with the high retrograding back to Greenland.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Late Feb - March 2006?

An easterly with high retrograding to produce a northerly then we had a Scandi high stalling a front and then a return to an easterly flow with the high retrograding back to Greenland.

I had forgotton about that Mr D.

Interesting that again this was late Feb but for some reason we cannot seem to get such synoptics during Dec, Jan, early Feb.

For me personally the best cold spell was Dec 05. Now I didn't have much in the way of snowfall (around 10cm) but what I did have remained for a few days with ice days. Again though LP around Greenland/Svalbard!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051228.gif

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

As one of few on this forum who has lived long enough to remember the winters of yore, so to speak. 1947, 1962-63 and onwards, some of the comments, or more accurately moans on here, are really quite funny.

We all have selective memories and trying to be objective about things is not easy. An excellent way to compare winters is to use, for your own area, the winter index Mr Data has provided. Yes it does not show the wonder synoptics that some of you go on about but it does show what we all experienced down at earth level in terms of snow falling, cover, air frosts etc.

Try it and see how what some call a disappointing winter for your area this winter shows. Mine is quite high really, nothing like 1962-3 or 1946-7 of course but its giving 1990-1991 a run for its money. Doncaster is very low level and as such has a very low snow falling/lying record. The long term average for RAF Finningley gives 15 days with snow falling and 11 lying and the past 10-12 years way below that.

the winter index using that provided by Mr D shows

1990-1991=127.1

1999-2000=28.9

2008-2009=92.9 (as far as 13 February)

unable to do 1996-1997 as not got all the data, December missing as only started my weather stats 1 January 1997. The data for 1990-1991 is from RAF Finningley

So very likely the highest value for this area in 18/19 years.

I've also done the following for comparison, just to show what a 'real' winter is like using that index

1962-63=510.0

1946-47=421.4

I suppose it all depends whether you are happy to look at your glass being half full or worry because its half empty!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
I suppose it all depends whether you are happy to look at your glass being half full or worry because its half empty!

Depends really if we're discussing the actual weather experienced or the synoptic patterns.

These past 2 weeks have been excellent for me with regards to snowfall and the Feb 5th snowfall was the heaviest since Jan 1987. However the simple reason why im disappointed is despite seeing plenty of snowfall, the max temps always managed to rise to around 2-4C. This is simply due to the lack of upper cold and the time of year. Lets not kid ourselves the recent snowfalls were very marginal due to upper temps being -4C and many only experienced rain.

The ideal cold spell for me consists of 7-10 days with temps remaining below 0C and at least 1 decent snowfall. This will only occur if the synoptics I describe occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

How do you calculate that index John?

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Posted
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
  • Location: City of Gales, New Zealand, 150m ASL
How do you calculate that index John?

Winter index = 10 x [(number of air frosts + number of days of falling sleet/snow + number of days of lying snow at 9am)/ mean winter maximum]

Depressing stuff for me. Last winter would have had an index of 0.8. Most winters would have an index of zero.....

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