Tropical Cyclone Cinda

[Cookie]

we have a new system

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed we do, the South Indian Ocean finally produces another storm. We should see activity continue to slowly increase as we go into January.

Anyway, we have 04S. This system formed this morning as pronounced banding features began to wrap into an increasingly well defined low level centre. 04S is expected to slowly intensify in the near term as sea temps are warm and outflow is good. However, shear is forecast to increase beyond 24hrs, so 04S isn't expected to get all that strong. The shear may not be strong enough to kill off the storm but certianly will dampen development if it persists. A lot of if's and but's and it should be noted that this storm has the potential for more strengthening than predicted if the shear doesn't materialise especially as the storm is already well organised and the ocean heat content is good.

04S will move west-southwestwards along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge. As this ridge re-orientates to the south of 04S then a more westward track could materialise. In the near term at least, 04S is no threat to land. It's worth mentioning it's slowly wondering towards Madagascar but it is far to early to say whether 04S will be paying the country a visit as yet.

The image below shows the good central convection along with the pronounced banding features to the south. Shear could be the only thing in 04S' way from becoming something big. Well worth watching over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

Good outflow and warm sea temps have allowed 04S to rapidly intensify overnight and it has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Cinda, with intensity of 50kts. Cinda will continue to intensify before a moderate incrrease in shear will level off the intensity beyond 24hrs. Cinda will drift generally southwestwards with perhaps a westwards turn in about 48hrs as the steering ridge re-orientates to the south of the storm.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Cinda has continued to intensify and intensity is now 55kts. Good banding features continue to wrap into the well defined LLC and there is some deep convection near the centre. Good poleward outflow should offset the moderate shear to allow Cinda to roughly maintain intensity over the next couple days though if the shear becomes any stronger then Cinda may weaken. Cinda is moving more southwards than originally anticipated to to a relocation of the subtropical steering ridge to the east of the system, however, this ridge is still forecast to build to the south instead forcing a more westwards motion for Cinda. Interesting to note that MeteoFrance disagree with JTWC in regards to future intensity and expect shear to overcome Cinda and weaken her to a tropical depression after 24hrs. It will be interesting to see who is right.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, Cinda hasn't weakened to a depression yet but it isn't far from it. Pretty powerful northwesterly shear has been buffeting Cinda for the last 24hrs and convection is displaced southeast of the partially exposed LLC. Intensity has been reduced to 40kts. Cinda is now moving westwards but as the storm becomes weaker it will be steered south again as it moves in the low level airflow. Strong poleward outflow may sustain Cinda for a while but the bottom line is that the shear is much too strong for a tropical cyclone to prosper and the fact that the ocean heat content begins to decrease aswell on the southward track should bring about Cinda's demise beyond 48 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Cinda has maintained intensity overnight and is still a 40kt tropical storm. Strong poleward outflow has maintained some deep convection just to the southeast of the LLC. Strong shear continues to batter Cinda, and continued slow weakening is forecast and Cinda is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression in around 48hrs. Beyond 48hrs, shear is expected to ease and despite Cinda moving over cooler waters some modest re-strengthening back up to a minimal tropical storm is forecast due to the relaxing shear. This forecast relies heavily on Cinda being able to survive the strong shear over the next couple days, but it has to be said it is certainly putting up a good fight so far and the good poleward outflow may be the saviour of the storm in the end. The low shear forecasted beyond 48hrs is also not certain, but it seems the dissipation of Cinda is definitely not as clear cut as originally thought. It will be interesting to see how the cyclone fairs over the next couple days!

[Cookie]

looks like Cinda is no more

[Somerset Squall]

looks like Cinda is no more

Quite right Cookie, Cinda has been declared a remnant low this morning, as strong shear has continued which has prevented any convection from persisting over the weakening LLC. The system looks highly disorganised at the moment and doesn't qualify to be a tropical cyclone anymore. However, we may not have heard the last from Cinda. The strong shear buffeting the system is set to ease shortly and Cinda's remnants are forecast to drift westwards very slowly keeping them over warm waters, so there is a chance of re-development near the island of St Brandon. JTWC say they will keep a close eye on Cinda for signs of re-development.