Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy

[Somerset Squall]

wow billy has gone nuts since I was last on!

I know, the intensification was so rapid! Reminds me of how Dolphin a couple weeks back quickly intensified after being weak for the first few days of it's life.

[Cookie]

billy is weakening fast down to a cat 2 and will be tropical storm late sat night

[Cookie]

has continued to weaken and shear has been quite strong

[Somerset Squall]

has continued to weaken and shear has been quite strong

Indeed, Billy has weakened quite significantly over the last 24 hours, as you say shear is the main cause. Further weakening is forecast, with strong shear continuing but also waters cooling the further west Billy goes, and also the fact that the air is becoming more stable.

[Supercell Hunters]

Guys better watch the GOC tropical low, this would become a cyclone very quickly in 24hours time! Ssts in Gulf is about 32 degrees! Coral Sea about 31 degrees. This would be necessary to become a strong cyclone development due to low shear. Monsoonal trough redeveloping and connecting that low and it will drag it south towards about 20 degrees south line.

Another low would form near Solomons Island as the monsoonal trough moves south and would become one off the coast here!

[Cookie]

thanks mate will keep an eye on it

[Somerset Squall]

Continued strong shear, marginal sea temps and a more stable environment has caused Billy to continue weakening. Apart from an occasional convectional flare-up, the weakening LLC of Billy has remained largely convection free for the last 12 hours. Therefore, Billy no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone and is now a remnant low. Redevelopment is not expected to to the LLC forecast to turn southwestwards into even cooler waters and continued high shear.

Been an interesting watch this one! Starting of in the Josef Bonaparte Gulf, it looked like it would peak at around 50kts before moving inland and dissipating (it was very close to the coast when it formed). Then the possibilty arose that it may redevelop in the Indian Ocean, which was never certain, but then of course he did. He was then forecast to peak around 70-80kts but underwent some explosive deepening to 105kts, at a really impressive speed. Thankfully then, he stayed away from land in the second half of his life as he could have caused so much damage if he turned further south.

Hopefully he is a precursor to an active Australian/South Indian Ocean season! With no damage and deaths though please!

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate, very good

[Cookie]

is their still some fight left in billy?

[Somerset Squall]

is their still some fight left in billy?

The remnant low certainly looked more impressive this morning with some deep convection but this has since dissapeared again due to the dry air currently wrapping itself around the LLC. The LLC may continue to have flare ups of convection as it gradually spins down on the westwards track but persistant convection is needed for any redevelopment to occur.

Edited December 29, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

its a fighter at least

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Billy continues to push gradually westwards and is now nearing 90E. The circulation centre is fairly well defined, but up to this point has been largely convection free. However, I'm making this post just to flag up the small possibility of redevelopment over the next day or so. Convection is on the increase, particularly to the north of the centre and in the last few hours the small area of deep convection has been attempting to wrap into the southern quadrant. However, there is still some strong shear in the area so this on the face of things will make further development unlikely but it is interesting to note some persistant convection around the remnant low which hasn't been a feature for the last few days now.

[Cookie]

it doesn't seem to know when its beat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html

[Somerset Squall]

it doesn't seem to know when its beat

I know, will it do another Hondo I wonder?! Billy dissipated as a tropical cyclone 8 days ago so it will be quite something if he manages to regenerate! It's surprising enough the remnant low has managed to stay intact so long.

Convection has been cycling between deep and non-existant over the last 36hrs, there is currently some deep convection displaced west of the LLC due to high easterly shear. Neither MeteoFrance or JTWC forecast re-development but it's still worth watching the low because if the shear eases then the chances of re-development will rise.

[Cookie]

still going this

[Somerset Squall]

still going this

Indeed, it's amazing how far Billy's remnant circulation had travelled, about three quarters of the indian ocean! And the fact that the storm dissipated on December 27th and the remnant low was still intact today is quite something! However, Billy's circulation no longer exists now as a new tropical low has absorbed it. However, this new tropical low has been enhanced by Billy's energy and looks like it may well develop very soon- the JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the new low.

Edited January 8, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

amazing really is!

[Cookie]

its a bit old but a good image. we might have to start a new thread for this