January CET

[jimben]

4.0 please

[The Calm before the Storm]

A reasonably mild 5.2c for me please!

[shuggee]

4.0ºC for me

[stormchaser1]

2.7c for me please

Edited December 26, 2008 by stormchaser1

[paul tall]

-1.3ºC for me, thats minus, not plus.

Hell yeah!

[SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES]

I have been studying the data and my model, with over 20 years of experiential data, says -1.0c. Big freeze coming. I expect Birmingham to have lying snow >10 days of the month. Buy blankets.

[suffolkboy_]

Ok, this is my punt.

January starting on a cold note, maximums of 3C in the East, 5C over Wales, however from around the 4th/5th much colder air will flood in keeping temperatures well surpressed. -1C over much of the East, -3C over the North of England, maybe a 1C towards Cornwall. Nightime minima very cold inland (in the CET zone), possibly -6C or a tad lower, minima not quite so low on the east coast.

Laying snow from the 5th/6th January (albeit not of any great depths and not for everyone) perhaps giving us some severe frost inland -10C possible, maximums in the region of 0C, this continuing until the 11th when milder air tries to make progress towards the UK in the south, possibly a heavy snow event here.

I think the mild air is unlikely to get far at all, and probably the whole country back under Polar Continental airmass by the 14th.

Remaining cold for the next week, very low nightime minima where snow is laying, and low maxima too.

I think milder air will make its way back gradually, but perhaps without a large snow event, probably more gradual. By the 22nd or thereabouts temperatures back to average in the South, perhaps slightly above in the far South West and over Ireland. Scotland remaining cold for a little time longer.

The month will probably end on quite a dreary note with chilly daytime maximas (4-5C) and nightime minimas around freezing.

Overall, a very cold month (Hale Winter cycle won't be broken), with the nightime minima perhaps being the biggest factor regarding the CET. Once snow is laying temperatures will really struggle.

CET -0.3

Call this the "Winter of Discontent II"

[dice48]

about 1c

[Timbo]

I feel this is going to be a very special January, heavy drifting snow, severe frosts both day and night,the milder air will not come back untill mid February at the earliest.

An exceptional cold CET -1.6

[Matty M]

I'm going to go for 0.5c

A very cold month.

[stewfox]

+ 0.9c as per 1880.

Funny enough New Years day 1880 was very mild

[BUSHY]

0.0 for me.

[kold weather]

I still feel cautious but with such a strong -ve NAO present I relaly do think this could be a very cold month, possibly the coldest since Feb 1991 but we will have to see, I suspect Jan 09 may well be a huge outlier compared to recent winters...

If we can't get below 3C with what is setting up, then we never will put it that way!

I'll make my punt on the 31st.

Edited December 27, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick L]

I think a changing of my prediction may be on the cards, if the current mouthwatering charts remain by Monday lunchtime then I think I will knock it down a couple of notches!

[snowsure]

4.8*C for me please.

In line with all other institutions, I am offering a 50% discount.

My latest guess is now 2.4*C.

[Weather-history]

I'm going for 3.1, taking into account any possible milder spells later in the month.

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm going for a rather over excited 1.9c

[Gavin P]

Provisionally, 1.9. A cold start to the month with snow, becoming anticyclonic in the second week with severe frosts. High slipping into Europe mid month and becoming very mild with southerly winds between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. 20th and beyond turns very cold with pressure re-building over Scandinavia - More snow likely in the final week.

Prov CET 1.9, Rainfall 70% sunshine 70%

[Nick F]

For me:

2.9C

Be rare for Jan to be cold throughout - so provision there for milder weather in the 2nd half.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hopefully we get inversion protection later in the month to preserve an impressive opening with the high pressure not sinking too far south as a result of the polar westerlies being very likely to wake up again after what looks a pretty wintry opening phase of the month.

On that basis of expectation I will go with 2.6C please

[ukmoose]

ok back from the Christmas break - I'll update the list later.

Can we really be heading for a sub 3 month?? After all these years?

[SteveB]

ok back from the Christmas break - I'll update the list later.

Can we really be heading for a sub 3 month?? After all these years?

Nope.

I have a sneaky feeling one or two members might be upping there prediction in the coming days.

Edited December 28, 2008 by SteveB

[ukmoose]

Latest update for January's CET

59 1.6-C: Timbo

16 1.5-C: TEITS

55 1.3-C: paul tall

56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES

20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1

57 0.3-C: suffolkboy

17 0.1-C: trickydicky

11 0C: wellington boot

29 0C: Snowmad79

62 0C: BUSHY

60 0.5C: Matty M

4 0.9C: Pete Tattum

61 0.9C: stewfox

58 1.0C: dice48

33 1.3C:James M

12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH

30 1.8C: BARRY

5 1.9C: adamjones416

7 1.9C:snowingman

67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine

68 1.9C: Gavin P

18 2.0C: Polar Gael

15 2.2C: Cal

19 2.2C: memories of 63

65 2.4C: snowsure

10 2.6C: tcc

70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection

2 2.7C: nick2702

54 2.7C: stormchaser1

39 2.8C: Norrance

38 2.9C: snowmaiden

43 2.9C: Potent Gust

69 2.9C: Nick F

36 3.0C: mike Meehan

44 3.0C: Bobd29

48 3.0C: Rollo

32 3.1C: themusicland

66 3.1C: Mr Data

3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND

13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard

41 3.2C: swfc

26 3.3C: V for Very Cold

42 3.3C: Calum

8 3.4C: pjb120

14 3.6C: The PIT

50 3.7C: derby4life

24 3.8C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN

28 3.9C: The watcher watcher

51 4.0C: jimben

53 4.0C: shuggee

35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman

9 4.9C: SteveB

52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm

47 5.3C: Summer of 95

25 5.5C: mark forster 630

45 5.8C: Supercell

46 5.9C: Optimus Prime

22 6.4C: Mike W

40 8.0C: Craig Evans

No less than 7 members going for a sub-zero cet and three for the big zero. 33 so far plumping for a sub 3 month even though it has been a number of years since we achieved one. Hmmm

[Don]

OK, time for my CET guestimate. I too feel we'll have a below average January for once! I'll go for

3.2C

I think we'll have a cold first half, but turning milder after mid-month, but not exceptionally so.

Edited December 28, 2008 by Don

[Duncan McAlister]

4.5C. Glad I waited a few days as I suspected the cold dream charts to change