January CET

[Timmead]

4.1 please

[DAVID SNOW]

5.7..ta

[Stu_London]

A cold start but milder later - perhaps more seasonal towards the end of the month

4.2C

[Stu_London]

A cold start but milder later - perhaps more seasonal towards the end of the month

4.2C

Sorry, I am going to change this - good possibility that after the first 12 days - we may still be hovering around zero - would require almost record warmth to get to my guess by the month end so I am revising to

2.6

[Anti-Mild]

I almost forgot about the monthly punt! Better make mines a:

3.3c

Cold first half, changeable second half.

[SteveB]

Well I can see why people are going for a cold Month with there guesses.

But for me I believe it when I am stood in a foot of snow with -15 wind chill.

4.9c

Colder than the last two January's(but that ain't hard to do)

I think I would like to change mine. Although I don't we will get mega cold, I feel in the 3's are likely.

3.6c

[casparjack]

2.1c for me.

[chionomaniac]

It's amazing how an early predicted cold spell can throw everyone off the scent. The temperature this Jan will be 4.7ºC. Cold start, though probably no Feb 1991, followed by a mild second half. If I am a couple of degrees too high, then I will still be unashamedly happy. A Win/Win situation!

[Snowyowl9]

Some may of fallen into 2 traps for this month,but I`m still going for 3.3c coldest since 2001,cold first half then milder again then getting colder later on it`s worked so far this year.

[Nick L]

4.5C. Glad I waited a few days as I suspected the cold dream charts to change

The snow may be limited but it will certainly be cold to very cold for the first couple of weeks of Jan going by current runs.

[damianslaw]

Quite highly confident that we will record a below average CET, I'm going for 2.9 degrees - would love to go lower but think that we will see a milder spell following the very cold first half, later in the month it will turn cold again.

For once this January looks like delivering some proper winter cold and will feel like mid winter, the past 20 or so Januarys have been woeful for deep freezes and heavy long lasting snow... not saying this January will be exceptional but at least it will reinstate Jan as the true winter month yhe accolade for coldest and snowiest month I feel has gone to Feb in the past 2 decades even december more recently.

[Polar Side]

1.9c for me please.

Cheers.

[Devon-Nelly]

I think it will be a mostly cold month up until the last week or so when the mild air will finally break through, and the possiblity of a very cold/severe spell of weather in the first half of the month.

My punt is 1.8c

[Great Plum]

OK, I'm thinking (not out of any meterological skill but hopecasting) that the tempearute will be 2.7c

[sundog]

I think a very cold first half and a much milder second half. 4.2 for me please

[DR Hosking]

my guess is 3.9c

[Roger J Smith]

I'm going to say -0.4 C

because I would not want to miss out on the thrill of getting a subzero month right in my lifetime (and I may not live past 2050).

PM me if you want to know what I would say for money.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I would like to make a downward adjustment to my CET guess to 3.1C

[ukmoose]

I am going with 3.7

I would just love it to be lower but hopecast as I may, I just can't see it averaging out lower than this. It depends on how long the block can last; how low the night time minima drop to and how mild it gets when the Atlantic rushes back in. At least we look like having a good chance of a colder than average January to stop the run of poor ones experienced in recent times.

59 1.6-C: Timbo

16 1.5-C: TEITS

55 1.3-C: paul tall

56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES

20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1

92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith

57 0.3-C: suffolkboy

17 0.1-C: trickydicky

11 0C: wellington boot

29 0C: Snowmad79

62 0C: BUSHY

60 0.5C: Matty M

4 0.9C: Pete Tattum

61 0.9C: stewfox

58 1.0C: dice48

33 1.3C:James M

12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH

30 1.8C: BARRY

88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly

5 1.9C: adamjones416

7 1.9C:snowingman

67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine

68 1.9C: Gavin P

87 1.9C: Polar Side

18 2.0C: Polar Gael

82 2.1C: casparjack

15 2.2C: Cal

19 2.2C: memories of 63

65 2.4C: snowsure

10 2.6C: tcc

70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection

79 2.6C: Stu London

2 2.7C: nick2702

54 2.7C: stormchaser1

89 2.7C: Great Plum

39 2.8C: Norrance

38 2.9C: snowmaiden

43 2.9C: Potent Gust

69 2.9C: Nick F

86 2.9C: damianslaw

36 3.0C: mike Meehan

44 3.0C: Bobd29

48 3.0C: Rollo

32 3.1C: themusicland

66 3.1C: Mr Data

3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND

13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard

41 3.2C: swfc

74 3.2C: Don

26 3.3C: V for Very Cold

42 3.3C: Calum

80 3.3C: Anti-Mild

84 3.3C: Snowyowl9

8 3.4C: pjb120

14 3.6C: The PIT

81 3.6C: SteveB

50 3.7C: derby4life

93 3.7C: ukmoose

24 3.8C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN

28 3.9C: The watcher watcher

91 3.9C: DR Hosking

51 4.0C: jimben

53 4.0C: shuggee

76 4.1C: Timmead

90 4.2C: sundog

35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman

75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister

83 4.7C: chionomaniac

52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm

47 5.3C: Summer of 95

25 5.5C: mark forster 630

77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW

45 5.8C: Supercell

46 5.9C: Optimus Prime

22 6.4C: Mike W

40 8.0C: Craig Evans

8 guesses so far below zero

32 guesses between 0 and 3

11 so far over the 71-2000 average of 4.2

Let me know of any errors and I will correct when I return.

[Nick F]

Think I will revise my CET figure upwards to 4.2C

[Glacier Point]

A very cold start is locked, even if we go down the Faux cold route. The mild Atlantic locked out, for the south at least. The target is 3C and I suspect that will be broken although analogues suggest a +0.5C anomaly although with a cold pool established to our east that is deeply under threat. A tough call which is going to be very complicated by surface vs uppers.

2.8C Please.

[leroys41]

A very cold start is locked, even if we go down the Faux cold route. The mild Atlantic locked out, for the south at least. The target is 3C and I suspect that will be broken although analogues suggest a +0.5C anomaly although with a cold pool established to our east that is deeply under threat. A tough call which is going to be very complicated by surface vs uppers.

2.8C Please.

gp why are the models struggling when you thi nk it will be resolved

[Glacier Point]

gp why are the models struggling when you thi nk it will be resolved

I think part of the problem here is that we are judging model performance by previous years' experience within clear cut zonal conditions and jet angled SW-NE. Clearly, that situation is not happening and is unlikely to for the majority of the month - but that's for another thread...

[Weather-history]

I hope you don't mind me if I post this here. I may have missed one or two off in this list

Cold first week to January (up to 7th) (sub 1.5C)

2002: 0.9

1997: -0.8

1986: 1.2

1985: 0.8

1979: -2.2

1971: -0.3

1970: -0.8

1967: 1.4

1963: -0.1

1962: 0.6

1953: 0.8

1941: -1.7

1940: 0.5

1931: 0.2

1929: 0.8

1918: 0.9

1908: 0.4

1895: 0.5

1894: -3.1

1893: -3.3

1891: -0.9

1889: -0.3

1887: -0.9

1879: -0.7

1871: 0.2

1868: -0.2

1867: -1.2

1864: -3.5

1861: -1.8

1858: 1.4

1854: -0.7

1850: 0.0

1849: -1.2

1842: 0.2

1841: -1.0

1837: 0.9

1835: -0.1

1831: 1.4

1830: 1.1

1827: 0.1

1821: -0.1

1820: -2.1

1815: 0.1

1814: -2.3

1811: -2.0

1807: 1.2

1804: 0.7

1802: -0.7

1799: -0.7

1795: -3.9

1794: 0.4

1793: 1.4

1789: -2.6

1786: -2.5

1785: 1.0

1784: -0.2

1780: 0.7

1778: 0.1

1777: -0.8

1774: -1.2

1773: -0.2

[safety_bloke]

Put me down for 3.7 deg C

Ta