Joe B ( Accuweather ) - Forecasts!

[Neilsouth]

Latest thoughts from Joe B. Source: AccuWeather

TUESDAY, DEC. 23 2 A.M. UPDATE ON COMING COLD WAVE.

'The period we are looking at here has not yet started. The block is forming over Scandinavia, and this will back toward Greenland and as it does, the pattern will reverse so we are looking at much colder weather to end this month and carry well into January. On the table are strong low-level east winds into England with snow there, but the evolution of this is still occurring, and in fact it's warm now. However, the reason for the post is to say the most impressive two- to four-week cold period of any recent winter for the continent on the whole is on the way. Patience, grasshopper, patience.'

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Latest thoughts from Joe B. Source: AccuWeather

TUESDAY, DEC. 23 2 A.M. UPDATE ON COMING COLD WAVE.

'The period we are looking at here has not yet started. The block is forming over Scandinavia, and this will back toward Greenland and as it does, the pattern will reverse so we are looking at much colder weather to end this month and carry well into January. On the table are strong low-level east winds into England with snow there, but the evolution of this is still occurring, and in fact it's warm now. However, the reason for the post is to say the most impressive two- to four-week cold period of any recent winter for the continent on the whole is on the way. Patience, grasshopper, patience.'

hmmm - nothing new here, just going by the model outputs - I think a lot of people on this board could have written something similar.

[Neilsouth]

SUNDAY DEC 28 8 AM

YOU WANT IT, YOUR GOING TO GET IT.

The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern european pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The 2-3 week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occuring now because of the block over the north, will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was , in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continents weather and see how it turns out. In the end we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory.

To all that are emailing me, lets see how this plays out before any more emails. I am confident that by mid Jan, most of you will see my point. I will have the weather try to deliver it for you.

ciao for now ****

B) :lol:

[jemtom]

Pushing things back farther and farther, sounding quite desperate too, despite the fact he's now bought himself a full 3 week window.

[blitzen]

Well Joe B. on accuweather hasn't backed down re his predictions regarding a very cold January. I would say he appears even more confident! (the plot thickens )

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index.asp?...&traveler=0

Edited December 29, 2008 by Blitzen

[MR EXTREMES]

Well Joe B. on accuweather hasn't backed down re his predictions regarding a very cold January. I would say he appears even more confident! (the plot thickens )

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index.asp?...&traveler=0

yeah i noticed that yesterday typical i dunno anymore getting a little downbeat now where in a climate thats to unpredictable theases days perhapes winter will go out with a bang in the next 2weeks perhapes peroid of snow then back to mild west southwesterlies wet mild.

atleast this year was diffrent early maybe next year

[Methuselah]

Is this the same Joe B who tells us it's about to get supercold every year?

[SP1986]

Is this the same Joe B who tells us it's about to get supercold every year?

Yes that's the one.

I think people on here have often been sensible enough to take his forecast with extreme scepticism. There will be a few desperate people who hang onto his every thoughts, but generally, he doesn't verify too well.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes that's the one.

I think people on here have often been sensible enough to take his forecast with extreme scepticism. There will be a few desperate people who hang onto his every thoughts, but generally, he doesn't verify too well.

yeah thats me im pretty easy led to be honest i knew cold was coming and i really didnt know to much about him although it states his a top forecaster lol im just going to carry on reading the thoughts of people on here i think i will get more honest answers aswell all in all it cold now which is good start i sopose lol :lol:

[The PIT]

Dunno why people listen to him almost as inaccurate than our Mr Sunspot. Wrong nearly year in year out yet still gets the rubbish published.

[Snow Cat]

Another update from Joe :wacko: http://www.accuweather.com/world-laminate floori-...ner=accuweather

"MONDAY, DEC. 29, 7 A.M. EST

OKAY, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN WITH THE WEATHER.

The reason I love to use London as a bellweather of northwestern Europe is that in a warm amo, it's tough to be cold there. This is not a backyard forecasting site, just a heads-up on some things I see coming and other topics, but to have a cold January in London is impressive given the cycle we are in. So here we go. December as of now is .8 below normal in London, the coldest areas in Europe have been over Spain. The east has been warm. Widepsread, and in some cases, extreme cold will develop by Jan. 5 and probably last through the 20th across most of Europe and so I am going to say January in London will be more than 2 degrees below normal and in fact could be as much as 3-4 F below, which would make it the coldest since the '80s.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. ****"

[len]

I thought that with model outputs causing some despondancy (to me included) I would post Joe B's lastest offerings.

He seems incredibly bullish about cold deepening.

Where does he get this?

Does he have access to info we don't?

We seem to be in a very unusual situation where the model output is being substantially disregarded by some forecasters, and experts like GP. I hope they're right.

Mods, if this is not acceptable here please move it as you see fit, but it's his take on the output so I'm offering it here............

"MONDAY, DEC. 29, 7 A.M. EST

OKAY, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN WITH THE WEATHER.

The reason I love to use London as a bellweather of northwestern Europe is that in a warm amo, it's tough to be cold there. This is not a backyard forecasting site, just a heads-up on some things I see coming and other topics, but to have a cold January in London is impressive given the cycle we are in. So here we go. December as of now is .8 below normal in London, the coldest areas in Europe have been over Spain. The east has been warm. Widepsread, and in some cases, extreme cold will develop by Jan. 5 and probably last through the 20th across most of Europe and so I am going to say January in London will be more than 2 degrees below normal and in fact could be as much as 3-4 F below, which would make it the coldest since the '80s.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. ****

SUNDAY, DEC. 28, 8 A.M.

YOU WANT IT... YOU'RE GOING TO GET IT.

The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern European pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING. The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks, and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The two- to three-week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occurring now because of the block over the north will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end, my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was, in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continent's weather and see how it turns out. In the end, we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However, what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory. "

Len

[Yozzer]

I thought that with model outputs causing some despondancy (to me included) I would post Joe B's lastest offerings.

He seems incredibly bullish about cold deepening.

Where does he get this?

Does he have access to info we don't?

We seem to be in a very unusual situation where the model output is being substantially disregarded by some forecasters, and experts like GP. I hope they're right.

Mods, if this is not acceptable here please move it as you see fit, but it's his take on the output so I'm offering it here............

"MONDAY, DEC. 29, 7 A.M. EST

OKAY, LET'S HAVE SOME FUN WITH THE WEATHER.

The reason I love to use London as a bellweather of northwestern Europe is that in a warm amo, it's tough to be cold there. This is not a backyard forecasting site, just a heads-up on some things I see coming and other topics, but to have a cold January in London is impressive given the cycle we are in. So here we go. December as of now is .8 below normal in London, the coldest areas in Europe have been over Spain. The east has been warm. Widepsread, and in some cases, extreme cold will develop by Jan. 5 and probably last through the 20th across most of Europe and so I am going to say January in London will be more than 2 degrees below normal and in fact could be as much as 3-4 F below, which would make it the coldest since the '80s.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. ****

SUNDAY, DEC. 28, 8 A.M.

YOU WANT IT... YOU'RE GOING TO GET IT.

The cold that has been a mainstay of the southern European pattern the past couple of weeks is not the cold I am talking about that IS COMING. The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks, and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time. The two- to three-week period that comes in the wake of the warmth that is occurring now because of the block over the north will more than justify the idea that one heck of cold period is coming up in January. In the end, my mistake will be that apparently I did not make clear the idea that this was a forecast from a couple of weeks out to let you know, as apparently it was, in many minds, supposed to start instantly from the date of post over a week ago. But I will watch the continent's weather and see how it turns out. In the end, we got off to the fast start centered on November and early December, and we will find that that when we total things up, give or take a week, the first half of winter had the wildest weather not the second half, which should grow tranquil with the hope of an early spring for most of the continent. However, what is coming in front of us for the continent as a whole, should be the nastiest in recent memory. "

Len

I'm afraid JB is rapidly becoming the Piers Corbyn of the States. I don't think he's privy to any more data than many people on here.

[Snow Cat]

A new update from Joe:

"January 4, 2009

COLDEST JAN DAY IN LONDON IN OVER 10 YEARS.

The temperatures at Heathrow were 23 for a low and 34 for high, making this the coldest Jan mean since early Jan 1997.

The very cold weather that has set in across Europe, centered over the southeast where it had been warm, will continue for another week before backing away and reversing to a milder mid and late Jan. However with London through today over 7 below normal for the month, and close to 6 below normal since Christmas, I feel confident that this will still go down as advertised even with the warming later in the month.

thanks for reading, ciao for now *****"

He's sadly removed references from his previous forecasts and I assume this one didn't quite hit the mark :lol: from 28th December: "The major block over Scandinavia will back west the next couple of weeks, and true arctic air masses will spread south into central Europe then back west with time".

Edited January 5, 2009 by Snow Cat

[Neilsouth]

In the Wizard-of-Oz world that climate forecasting has become, let this dose of reality set in... another period of severe cold is brewing. The major stratospheric warming event going on now and the blocking that is locking in will back west, and this will allow the Scandinavian trough to start doing its dirty work. The moral is that February may contain a 10- to 20-day cold period in the continent that rivals the severe cold that we saw in late December into early January. This is not a forecast for tomorrow, okay, just a heads up on two to three weeks away.

:winky:

[cj114]

Saw this myself. Have to say, he's been spot on so far this winter.

[cj114]

He has now updated his forecast, but still reckons that the worst is to come in two weeks time.

Igloo's anyone?

Thank god I got the shovel, in the Divorce settlement. lol

[yamkin]

I guess they could, but I can't see it at the moment. Its worth bearing in mind that it will remain rather on the cold side for a few more days yet, and it stiill doesn't look like being much above average at best. Milder than of late of course, but not excessively so.

Paul,

Hope the MODs don't mind, but Joe the plumber :lol: from Accuweather has got our cold periods from Oct to date spot on and just have a read of this..........very promising indeed

ABOUT THAT COLD

The cold that has been so prominent in northwestern Europe will push southeastward into the heart of that continent with major central and western European cold overall during the next 6-10 days. London, 6 below normal already for the month, shows little sign of any major warming in the next one to two weeks and farther southeast, which has not been as cold, will grow colder the next 6-10 days. We have been using Europe in this retrogressive pattern this year as a nice tip-off to what to look for over the eastern U.S. A "Hands across the water" pattern.

Again, just here to give you a heads up on what's up... not a backyard detailed forecast, okay?

[Mark Bayley]

Wasn't he the guy who said were going to have record breaking cold from the east sometime in January which went a bit pear shaped.

[shuggee]

Yep - 'tis him:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1403707