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Annual CET - 2009


Stu_London

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Hello

    A new thread for the CET for 2009

    A make or break year for warming and cooling enthusiasts alike, methinks

    In the continued absense of a big Nino event, I think we will stay relatively cool compared to the first part of the decade

    9.91C is my punt

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    Business as usual for 2009 11C

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

    9.7c, basing this on predictions that the global temperature will level out or even cool slightly over the next decade.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire

    I have looked at the anomaly from the previous 10 year mean for each year since 1700.

    The distribution looks like this:

    post-6529-1230131624_thumb.png

    A fairly normal distribution although skewed slightly towards the warm end as you might expect.

    The standard deviation for the anomaly data set is 0.6C

    70.5% of years fell within the range +- 1 standard deviation from the previous 10 year mean.

    90.2% of years fell within the range +- 1.645 standard deviations from the previous 10 year mean.

    12.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation colder than the mean.

    17.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation warmer than the mean.

    4.2% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations colder than the mean.

    5.5% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations warmer than the mean.

    If this year comes in at 10C then the rolling mean for the period 1999-2008 will be 10.42C.

    On that basis there is a 70% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be in the range of 9.82C-11.02C.

    There is 12.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.82C.

    There is 17.3% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.02C.

    There is <4.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.22C.

    There is <5.5% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.62C.

    My actual prediction for 2009 is 10.3C.

    PS - I'm still trying to learn about statistics so if any of you experts out there would like to comment on this I would love to hear your feedback.

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    Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

    9.4C for me please ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    A complete guess but hopefully another sub 10°C year: 9.85°C

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    Posted
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL

    I'm going for 9.65c.

    This is largely based on:

    * The fact that we are expecting another moderate La Nina event in the first half of 2009

    * This dominant La Nina pattern suggests that the summer will not be a hot one and we may get a re-run of 2007 and 2008.

    * We may get off to a cold start to 2009, at least for January - and a cold January often means a cool February

    * Solar Activity remains very low - as cycle 24 only is only getting going very slowly.

    Principally, sea temperature is, in my view, the leading factor determining UK air temperatures. Therefore, with sea temperatures influenced by the above, we should not expect a warm 2009. It is the reduction in global sea temperatures that has, in my opinion, lead to us starting to get months below the 30 year average. If sea temperatures cool then the UK gets colder.

    We'll see how things pan out!

    MM

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    Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

    MORNING EVERYONE

    HAPPY NEW YEAR

    My guess colder than Last year 9.75c[/b

    nigel

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    9.75C for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    9.8c

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