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Annual CET - 2009


Stu_London

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Hello

A new thread for the CET for 2009

A make or break year for warming and cooling enthusiasts alike, methinks

In the continued absense of a big Nino event, I think we will stay relatively cool compared to the first part of the decade

9.91C is my punt

  • Replies 92
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Posted
  • Location: Buckingham
  • Location: Buckingham
Posted

A few gremlins about - just posted in the wrong thread,

10.4 for me please.

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

9.98 i fi , for me

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin'
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin'
Posted

Business as usual for 2009 11C

Posted
  • Location: NW London; ~ 60m ASL
  • Location: NW London; ~ 60m ASL
Posted

Hot El Nino summer coming up. I predict: 10.50

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

9.7c, basing this on predictions that the global temperature will level out or even cool slightly over the next decade.

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted

its gonna be cooler 9.8c

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
Posted

A 9.69 from me please, and the Climate Change Industry facing bankruptcy.

Posted
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Brighouse, West Yorkshire
Posted

I have looked at the anomaly from the previous 10 year mean for each year since 1700.

The distribution looks like this:

post-6529-1230131624_thumb.png

A fairly normal distribution although skewed slightly towards the warm end as you might expect.

The standard deviation for the anomaly data set is 0.6C

70.5% of years fell within the range +- 1 standard deviation from the previous 10 year mean.

90.2% of years fell within the range +- 1.645 standard deviations from the previous 10 year mean.

12.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation colder than the mean.

17.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation warmer than the mean.

4.2% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations colder than the mean.

5.5% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations warmer than the mean.

If this year comes in at 10C then the rolling mean for the period 1999-2008 will be 10.42C.

On that basis there is a 70% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be in the range of 9.82C-11.02C.

There is 12.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.82C.

There is 17.3% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.02C.

There is <4.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.22C.

There is <5.5% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.62C.

My actual prediction for 2009 is 10.3C.

PS - I'm still trying to learn about statistics so if any of you experts out there would like to comment on this I would love to hear your feedback.

Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
Posted

9.4C for me please ;)

Posted

10.05C - there seems to be as slight cooling off but not that much, so I have gone for 10+

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Posted

A complete guess but hopefully another sub 10°C year: 9.85°C

Posted

2009 will be slightly colder than 2008, i feel a very similar year coming up but with a colder start to the year, watch out for more snow/cold in April and a near average wet cloudy summer.

Posted
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
  • Location: W Kent/E Sussex border (T Wells) 139m ASL
Posted

I'm going for 9.65c.

This is largely based on:

* The fact that we are expecting another moderate La Nina event in the first half of 2009

* This dominant La Nina pattern suggests that the summer will not be a hot one and we may get a re-run of 2007 and 2008.

* We may get off to a cold start to 2009, at least for January - and a cold January often means a cool February

* Solar Activity remains very low - as cycle 24 only is only getting going very slowly.

Principally, sea temperature is, in my view, the leading factor determining UK air temperatures. Therefore, with sea temperatures influenced by the above, we should not expect a warm 2009. It is the reduction in global sea temperatures that has, in my opinion, lead to us starting to get months below the 30 year average. If sea temperatures cool then the UK gets colder.

We'll see how things pan out!

MM

Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
Posted

MORNING EVERYONE

HAPPY NEW YEAR

My guess colder than Last year 9.75c[/b

nigel

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

9.75C for me please

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

9.8c

Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading
Posted

10.18. My guess is an above average summer after a slightly below average winter - after all, this year does end in a 9....

Posted
  • Location: Raunds - Northants
  • Location: Raunds - Northants
Posted

8.9 I punt

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