Annual CET - 2009

[Stu_London]

Hello

A new thread for the CET for 2009

A make or break year for warming and cooling enthusiasts alike, methinks

In the continued absense of a big Nino event, I think we will stay relatively cool compared to the first part of the decade

9.91C is my punt

[ukmoose]

A few gremlins about - just posted in the wrong thread,

10.4 for me please.

[Cymro]

9.98 i fi , for me

[Lettucing Gutted]

Business as usual for 2009 11C

[Optimus Prime]

Things warming up quickly once we get winter out of the way. 10.7c.

[Timmead]

Hot El Nino summer coming up. I predict: 10.50

[Gavin P]

Provisonally; 9.0 - The coldest year since 1987.

[Nick L]

9.7c, basing this on predictions that the global temperature will level out or even cool slightly over the next decade.

[BARRY]

its gonna be cooler 9.8c

[paul tall]

A 9.69 from me please, and the Climate Change Industry facing bankruptcy.

[eddie]

I have looked at the anomaly from the previous 10 year mean for each year since 1700.

The distribution looks like this:

A fairly normal distribution although skewed slightly towards the warm end as you might expect.

The standard deviation for the anomaly data set is 0.6C

70.5% of years fell within the range +- 1 standard deviation from the previous 10 year mean.

90.2% of years fell within the range +- 1.645 standard deviations from the previous 10 year mean.

12.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation colder than the mean.

17.3% of years were more than 1 standard deviation warmer than the mean.

4.2% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations colder than the mean.

5.5% of years were more than 1.645 standard deviations warmer than the mean.

If this year comes in at 10C then the rolling mean for the period 1999-2008 will be 10.42C.

On that basis there is a 70% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be in the range of 9.82C-11.02C.

There is 12.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.82C.

There is 17.3% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.02C.

There is <4.2% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be colder than 9.22C.

There is <5.5% chance that the Annual CET for 2009 will be warmer than 11.62C.

My actual prediction for 2009 is 10.3C.

PS - I'm still trying to learn about statistics so if any of you experts out there would like to comment on this I would love to hear your feedback.

[Mesosphere]

9.4C for me please

[Guest]

10.05C - there seems to be as slight cooling off but not that much, so I have gone for 10+

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Ill go to 10.25 based on a pure guess!

[James M]

A complete guess but hopefully another sub 10°C year: 9.85°C

[Mark Bayley]

10.2c

[Eugene]

2009 will be slightly colder than 2008, i feel a very similar year coming up but with a colder start to the year, watch out for more snow/cold in April and a near average wet cloudy summer.

[Roger J Smith]

I say 9.45 C

[Mr Maunder]

I'm going for 9.65c.

This is largely based on:

* The fact that we are expecting another moderate La Nina event in the first half of 2009

* This dominant La Nina pattern suggests that the summer will not be a hot one and we may get a re-run of 2007 and 2008.

* We may get off to a cold start to 2009, at least for January - and a cold January often means a cool February

* Solar Activity remains very low - as cycle 24 only is only getting going very slowly.

Principally, sea temperature is, in my view, the leading factor determining UK air temperatures. Therefore, with sea temperatures influenced by the above, we should not expect a warm 2009. It is the reduction in global sea temperatures that has, in my opinion, lead to us starting to get months below the 30 year average. If sea temperatures cool then the UK gets colder.

We'll see how things pan out!

MM

[stormchaser1]

MORNING EVERYONE

HAPPY NEW YEAR

My guess colder than Last year 9.75c[/b

nigel

Edited January 1, 2009 by stormchaser1

[Snowstorm1]

9.75C for me please

[SteveB]

9.8c

[Snowly does it]

8.92 for me please, lets reach for the stars

[Stargazer]

10.18. My guess is an above average summer after a slightly below average winter - after all, this year does end in a 9....

[BUSHY]

8.9 I punt