Annual CET - 2009

[Don]

I think 2009 could return to being more typical of those of the last 10-15 years. I'll take a punt of;

10.4C

[chionomaniac]

I'll try 9.85ºC

[LadyPakal]

Hmm, I will go for 10.1 I think. I was rather too high with last years guess of 10.4 (and I thought I was being optimistic too...).

[Anti-Mild]

Given a probable cold start to the year and a developing La Nina, I expect a similar outcome to this year, perhaps a little cooler. So.....

9.87c

Coolest year since 1996. Although I'm hoping for a far better summer.

[artic fox]

Trying to balance expected colder than recent winter/spring against overall warming trend of recent years

So 10.22 for me please.

[Jack Wales]

As we appear to be entering an extended Enso -'ve state, my guess is 9.75.

[jimben]

Blistering summer to rival 1976 will push it to 11c

[summer blizzard]

8.90C: Bushy

8.92C: Snowmaiden

9.00C: Gavin P

9.40C: Callum

9.45C: Roger J Smith

9.65C: Mr Maunder

9.69C: Paul Tall

9.70C: Nick 2702

9.75C: Storm Chaser 1

9.75C: Snow Storm 1

9.75C: Jack Wales

9.80C: Barry

9.80C: Steve B

9.85C: James M

9.85C: Chionomaniac

9.87C: Anti-Mild

9.91C: Stu_London

9.98C: Adam Jones 416

10.05C: Mike Meehan

10.1C: Lady Pakal

10.18C: Stargazer

10.2C: Mark Bayley

10.22C: Artic Fox

10.25C: Rain Rain Rain

10.3C: Eddie

10.4C: UkMoose

10.4C: Don

10.5C: Timmead

10.7C: Optimus Prime

11.0C: Craig Evans

11.0C: Jimben

And here is my preiction, however until i have all my data on the 29th January, i wont be making a prediction just yet...

January: 5.2C

February: 2.7C

March: 5.8C

April:

May: 11.8C

June: 12.1C

July:

August: 17.7C

September: 13.2C

October:

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

9.7C

Solar minumum.

La Nina.

Negative PDO.

While Northern Hemisphere still below average in sea ice.

[Stu_London]

CET 04/01/08-03/01/09 - 9.92C*

*Assumes December 2008 CET of 3.6C

Could be 9.8C in about a week

Edited January 4, 2009 by Stu_London

[Duncan McAlister]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean2008.html

The 2008 CET is in and it's exactly 10C, which is quite remarkable considering December came in at -327.7, slightly colder than expected!

In all seriousness, if the annual figure is correct then there couldn't have been much of a downward correction to December, slightly upward if anything.

[Snowly does it]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean2008.html

The 2008 CET is in and it's exactly 10C, which is quite remarkable considering December came in at -327.7, slightly colder than expected!

In all seriousness, if the annual figure is correct then there couldn't have been much of a downward correction to December, slightly upward if anything.

It should still be slightly under 10 - on these 'mean' pages they round the figure - 2007 for example on the equivalent page is quoted as 10.5 whereas the figure was 10.48

[Duane S.]

I'd like to plump for 9.89 please.

A cold Jan, average-warm feb, cold March, average spring,average-warm summer,cool Autumn and very cold start to 2009/2010 winter

[Stu_London]

Rolling Annual CET - 10/01/08-09/01/09 - 9.82C

Although we are getting milder for a period, we should see this figure continue to fall overall in the near term

The last 22 days of January 2008 averaged 7.2C. I can't see us averaging that between now and the end of the month, although there will be some mild days in the mix.

Should January come in at 3C exactly, then the rolling CET will be 9.65C at 31/01/09. Feb 2008 was colder, so a notable cold spell would be required in that month to go sub 9.5C in running.

[Shunter]

CET for 2009 of 9.2c. Continuing with the cooling theme. A year similar to 2008 in many ways with a predominantly cool, wet summer and a cool/cold Autumn. July & August to be the warmest months ( no real suprises ). Highlight will probably be a glorious April.

[Stu_London]

Haven't updated this for a while

Annual Rolling CET - 18/01/08-17/01/09 - 9.79C

this will take a bit of a hit between now and the 21st - possibly down towards the 9.7 mark - stablising thereafter unless it gets really cold or very mild.

[chionomaniac]

Haven't updated this for a while

Annual Rolling CET - 18/01/08-17/01/09 - 9.79C

this will take a bit of a hit between now and the 21st - possibly down towards the 9.7 mark - stablising thereafter unless it gets really cold or very mild.

There were no days from now until the end of the month that went below 5ºC last year, so surely it's not going to take too much of an upwards turn until Feb? All good.

[Stu_London]

There were no days from now until the end of the month that went below 5ºC last year, so surely it's not going to take too much of an upwards turn until Feb? All good.

Given the profile of the stratosphere, a continued fall in Feb 2009 is a distinct possibility, given Feb 2008 was never that cold throughout.

9.5C in running sometime in February, anybody?

[Gavin P]

If we have a cold La Nina March and April, perhaps we'll be sub 9 by May?

[Snowly does it]

If we have a cold La Nina March and April, perhaps we'll be sub 9 by May? :o

For fun only......

Jan Feb Mar Apr May - 3.0, 2.4, 4.1, 6.9, 10.8 would get us to 8.96 by the end of May in running

In reality, we need to lose 12 degrees from last months monthly totals in running to get down to sub 9

Jan, Feb of 3.0 and 3.0 would however get us to 9.5

If this happened, it might just about be feasible to get to 1996s 9.2 in running with a La Nina early spring and an average May as last May was so mild

[Stu_London]

Rolling CET - 20/01/08-19/01/09 - 9.77C

Up against two days of +10C (in 2008) so a fair bit lower by Thursday, I would suggest

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll take a stab at around 9.66C

[Stu_London]

Another milestone breached

Annual Rolling CET 28/01/08-27/01/09 - 9.68C

[chionomaniac]

Another milestone breached

Annual Rolling CET 28/01/08-27/01/09 - 9.68C

That is certainly very impressive in these 'modern' times. How low do you think we can get if the Feb CET does the impossible and comes in sub 3ºC? (I don't really think this is impossible - I actually believe the long term outlook gives us the best chance in a very long time).

[kold weather]

A fairly cold Jan by modern standards gives us a good start in the quest for sub 10C, and the weak La Nina signal also is suggestive of a below average Spring...

For now we have a good advantage on 2008.

Also looking very likely the winter of 08-09 will come in below average unless Feb becomes very mild, possible but early signals are for a cold start...