Annual CET - 2009

[kold weather]

Quite possibly OP we do have a pretty decent chance providing we don't have a very above normal July/August, which would push it up quite a lot I'd have thought if that were to happen.

Also another thing to note, the Atlantic is much cooler then its been in the last decade which may moderate Atlantic flows a little bit more then in previous years come the late Autumn/winter time.

Odds are though that somewhere between 10.2-10.4C is the most likely outcome based on the second halves of the last decade or so. The highest we could go in theory is about 10.9 if we somehow have another 2006 style summer which is highly unlikely.

A second half like 1996 will be enough to get us sub 10C.

Edited June 16, 2009 by kold weather

[karyo]

Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.

I haven't been following the el nino projection but last I've heard was a post by GP a couple of weeks ago. He said he expected the el nino to be weak-moderate and pick in early autumn. Has anything changed dramatically?

Karyo

[GRHinPorts]

Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.

Thats very interesting to me, because statistically we are overdue an anomolously warm December. Its the only month which has actually averaged colder over the past 12 years than the 1971-2000 average. This is in sharp contrast to the rest of the months which tend to average out at about 0.66 of a degree warmer over the past 12 years.

Even allowing for this I think there is still a sporting chance (30% to 40%) than 2009 will be sub 10C

More like about 10% IMO.

Quite possibly OP we do have a pretty decent chance providing we don't have a very above normal July/August, which would push it up quite a lot I'd have thought if that were to happen.

Also another thing to note, the Atlantic is much cooler then its been in the last decade which may moderate Atlantic flows a little bit more then in previous years come the late Autumn/winter time.

Odds are though that somewhere between 10.2-10.4C is the most likely outcome based on the second halves of the last decade or so. The highest we could go in theory is about 10.9 if we somehow have another 2006 style summer which is highly unlikely.

A second half like 1996 will be enough to get us sub 10C.

The only other two months that lag behind the 0.66 anomoly comparing the last 12 years with 1971-2000 is July (bizarrely when you consider 2006) and August. For that reason statistically I am backing both months to have above CET averages.

I therefore concur with the view that the annual CET is likely to come out between 10.2 and 10.4.

[summer blizzard]

January: 5.2C

February: 4.2C

March: 5.8C

+0.2

April: 9.1C

May: 11.3C

June: 15.1C

+0.7

July: 17.3C

August: 16.2C

September: 12.7C

-0.1

October: 11.4C

November: 7.4C

December: 6.1C

+0.5

Preliminary prediction is 10.08C, 0.33C above average.

Can we have an update on the rolling annual CET please.

[reef]

The rolling 12 month mean to the 30th June is 9.76C.

If every remaining month in the year from now recorded a value of exactly average then we'd finish on 9.98C. Its September, October and December that could do the most damage. Between them they were 2.5C cumulative degrees below average. July and August were both 16.2C last year, so unless they are rather warm, wont do much damage.

Edited July 4, 2009 by reef

[Stu_London]

Rolling CET 01/08/08-31/07/09 - 9.75C

To achieve 10C - we need an additional 3.75C on top of last years values to breach the 10C mark (Or 0.75C per month)

Realistically, given the rather cool nature of the 2nd half of 2008, one very mild month in the last 5 could blow that away.

Something over 10C but under 10.2C would be my prediction from here

[Gavin P]

I'll be surprised if August-November shows anything particularly above average. If we're going to get a very above average month, I think it'll be December. El Nino Decembers do tend to be mild affairs, so if theres a month that throws a spanner in the works on a sub 10c year, I think it'll be the final month of the year that does it.

That said, I have a sneaky suspicion we'll be sub 10c again this year. Would be the frist time since 92/93 that two years back to back have come in sub 10c, I believe.

Edited August 2, 2009 by Gavin P

[Anti-Mild]

Official CET for July in at 16.1c

If every month for the rest of the year has the 71-00 avergae we would end up with a CET of 9.96 - same as last year.

If every month for the rest of the year had the same CET's as last year we would end up at 9.75c - dead on 71-00 average.

To equal the warmest year on record, each month would have to be 2.1c higher than the 71-00 average.

To equal 1996's figure of 9.2c, each month would have to be 1.8c below the 71-00 average.

My preiciton for the end of the year figure: 10.04c

[Don]

I think at this stage this year will probably have an overall CET of just over the 10C mark, perhaps 10.1C. So slightly warmer than 2008, but still a cooler year by recent standards.

Edited August 6, 2009 by Don

[Stu_London]

Annual CET (rolling) 01/09/08-31/08/09 - 9.78C

Still a chance of a second sub 10 calendar year in a row, likely to be in the balance until December

[reef]

Annual CET (rolling) 01/09/08-31/08/09 - 9.78C

Still a chance of a second sub 10 calendar year in a row, likely to be in the balance until December

Indeed, an average run-in now would see us at 9.98C, but an average Autumn would be the 4th coldest in 20 years! December will really do the damage though, getting another one as cold as last year seems unlikely, though we had two cold ones consecutively in 1995 and 1996.

[Snowstorm1]

9.75C for me please

Still Got a chance of happenning! But going to be close lol well its not going to be too far out anyways

Edited September 1, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Still Got a chance of happenning! But going to be close lol well its not going to be too far out anyways

be lucky to get colder than 10C due to el nino:nonono: All months so far except JAN have been above average [i'm glad the below average came in winter]

http://climaticidechronicles.org/2008/12/31/uk-met-office-predicts-warm-2009-record-temperatures-after-2010/:D

This says record breaking heat for 2010, but with very low solar i think not :]

by say 2020 we COULD be significantly cooler, especially if it wasn'tfor GW, GW is a bit*h and so is el nino, but atleast thats a cycle withhot and cold - a natural Bit*h.

[chionomaniac]

Does anyone think we will have a sub 10ºC year?

Up to the end of September we have a cumulative temperature of 98.8ºC. That leaves us with just under 22.2ºC to play with for the rest of the year. Traditionally in El Nino years the start of winter is milder than usual, but we will need it to be slightly below average from now to hit the sub 10ºC target. With October being there or thereabouts it could go down to the wire!

c

[Stu_London]

Does anyone think we will have a sub 10ºC year?

Up to the end of September we have a cumulative temperature of 98.8ºC. That leaves us with just under 22.2ºC to play with for the rest of the year. Traditionally in El Nino years the start of winter is milder than usual, but we will need it to be slightly below average from now to hit the sub 10ºC target. With October being there or thereabouts it could go down to the wire!

c

I think the chances have receded slightly in the last couple of months (from about 30% to 10%). I would say it is fairly certain to be in the balance until Mid December at the earliest.

If October goes sub 10C and Novemeber was to start coldish that would obviously help.

Whatever happens, anything above 10.15C would be a suprise.

[Stu_London]

Rolling CET

01/12/08-30/11/09

10.14C

Somewhere in the range of 10.15-10.30 looks most likely for the year.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Anyone know what the provisional annual CET is?

[Snowly does it]

Anyone know what the provisional annual CET is?

Provisional will be 10.13

Once any adjutment for December is done I expect it to be 10.1 or 10.11