Satsigs

[Stratos Ferric]

Diehards on here will be well familiar with SATSIGs, a service provided in times of high emotional stress which, bizarrely, seem to correlate strongly with the appearance of a preponderance of blue on the 'uppers' charts.

As ever we will be operating five levels of ramp alert this year, together with some other old favourites like the "no" alerts.

The five levels are:

RAMP 1: low levels of excitement, "I can see decent snowfall some time next month" type of thing. Tends to creep out when charts are full of yellow and SW'ly mush, and often symptomatic of tentative straw-clutching rather than genuine belief in snow being likely. Can also account for slight exaggeration of genuine prospects, e.g. "Six inches coming my way". If you're WB that, and more, might be true...but it's seldom the case.

RAMP level 2: medium excitement. Tends to relate to larger events being just over the reliable boundary, but being discussed as if nailed."We're going to get a lorry load..." and "-10C for sure" type of thing when it's still the middle of September. Calling a white christmas at more than ten days would certainly fall into this category.

RAMP level 3: high excitement. People from Ireland and Glasgow invariably peak here very early. When life promises much but seldom delivers it's easy to get carried away. Tends to occur when prospects are good (for snow) and entering near real time.

RAMP 4: endemic excitement. Symptomised by the start of a cold feeding frenzy, with speculation being based largely on the speculation of others. A sort of "south sea bubble" for cold forecasts. Needs to be some localised exaggeration, and a general tendency to ignore, or put down, any doubters.

RAMP 5, or RAMPEDE. Uncontrollable madness. Sleet in Telford (in August); "we've had a foot in the last hour..."; "I'm not going to work for a week if this comes off...". Unlikely to emanate from Abingdon.

As ever International Ramp Rescue will have various outstations operating and comoing on line as and when either things get out of hand, or the mood takes the volunteers...

[butler_son]

I've been longing to see this thread for weeks now! This was so much fun to read in winters past! Though, I guess that the alerts are in much more advanced phases at the current time? I think you could claim Level 4 Ramps at a push at the moment!

But thanks so much for resurrecting this thread! Brilliant!

[Hairy Celt]

surely we're at level 2 already. well, maybe...

[acbrixton]

Thank heavens...not before time too. There are already ominous signs of a post-Christmas ramp!

regards

ACB

[Stratos Ferric]

Thank heavens...not before time too. There are already ominous signs of a post-Christmas ramp!

regards

ACB

I do hope you're not ramping the ramp AC.

[Mammatus]

surely we're at level 2 already. well, maybe...

I think some stations around the Uk have been on Level 2 for a fortnight now. From Ipswich to Peterborough and beyond..........................

TA

[Richard Taylor]

Aah the good ole' East Anglian Ramp!

[Methuselah]

Great to see SATSIGS back again SF. There's a rampede in FI...Yeeehaahhh!!

[Roger J Smith]

I thought Satsigs had moved to Portugal.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Many people have PMd me asking me to explain how ramping works. Well, I shall explain shortly but im very encouraged with this mornings ramping so far with some truly remarkable potential starting to show itself.

[Terminal Moraine]

Excellent. All is well with the world when Satsigs makes its return.

I would suggest we're already up to level 3 in some quarters.

[SnOwFeSt]

What does SATSIGS stand for? I've always wondered

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Satsig Supporters of course.

[Methuselah]

What does SATSIGS stand for? I've always wondered

Sod All The Science It's Going to Snow...

[runboy]

Maybe the ramp levels could be attached to numbers of people viewing the model discussion threads. Something like this:

0-50 Summer, maybe a storm on the horizon

51-70 Autumn, getting windy

71-100 Did someone mention a frost?

101-150 Ooooh a hard frost

151-200 A snow flake over the highlands

201-250 Snow possible....but only just

251-300 Getting exciting now, snow possible anywhere at any time

301 upwards It is like 1962/3 all over again

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think SATSIGS is definitely at number 3 because of all of that potential from the Greenland High into the start of 2009. Expect a fair number of rampedes to begin, especially from Kent and Sussex where the talk of TEITS's "beast from the east" will arise despite the main thrust of cold air being from the north.

Good to see the return of SATSIGS, anyway!

[ukmoose]

Great to see the return of SATSIGS - wouldn't be a proper winter without it.

I can see lots of ramps towards the top end of the scale, but have a nagging doubt that they will not bear much in the way of fruit, except maybe the odd pear. Keep the ramps coming though I say.

[memories of 63]

Is this a sign of global warming (washes mouth with carbolic soap) SATSIGS is late appearing this year

[Roger J Smith]

No SATSIGS thread can be complete without a mention of the Mercury inferior conjunction and its powerfuil influence over the Greenland high, North Atlantic retrogression, and winters of old.

So there, I've mentioned it. By the way, if you want to see it, just look up. Straight up.

I think it happens on January 25th, so that all has to be back to Santa's workshop by then.

B) B)

[shuggee]

Who's got the forecasting stick these days?

Maybe my newly researched theory on the likelihood of cold being directly proportionate to common issues, could be considered this year:

1] bus journey times (cold air is thicker, therefore buses take longer to get to their destinations and have a more frequent propensity to bunch up in 2s and 3s)

2] mobile phone signals (the likelihood of a call not connecting and the user having to re-dial is a symptom of colder, thicker air on the near Continent affecting the birthplace of all Nokia phones)

I'm sure there are many more... Research grants are freely available B)

[wysiwyg]

*wanders casually into the SATSIGs thread* B)

*lets off a huge RRRAAAAAAMMMMMMPPPPP!!!!*

*runs away very fastly*

[Stratos Ferric]

Aah the good ole' East Anglian Ramp! B)

Or, as we put it in the mysterious zone of sound northern thinking (MZSNT), 'EAR 'EAR! It is a strange thing, like the Great Glen Fault I suppose, that a continuing source of low level ramps in these situations is the Fens...

[Dr Rains]

Will they all end up in Rampton Hospital near Retford? After all it caters for people with personality disorders and mental health issues you know.

[Supercell]

I trust Satsigs will remain on high alert.

The GFS 12z, as we have all been made aware, is often far more progressive that any other output, and in no way indicative of any change in trend towards mild misery.

It is a recurring theme, the 12z ouput continues to diet on a feast of even larger teapot conspiracy theories and anomalous warmth. This explains why, within a more reliable time frame, once the model has had time to digest these crucial factors that we discover the -15 air has been replaced by -3/4 upper levels temps. Words such as "modified and marginal" begin to echo across the forums.

Popular ways to avoid the impending let-down:

A) Bin the run. No other output has taken this route. I'd prefer to focus more on the other lines that, later on, fluctuate wildly with the promise of some -15 air.

B) The easterly is nailed on, we have it now, it's already started. The details of how much snow and how cold it will go are still yet to be decided. Those dew points could be lower and the precipiation might slow or stall before the mild air invades. Best bet is to to set your alarm for 2.37 a.m. in the hope of catching a few flakes, what with it tuning sleety in Telford.

Edited December 24, 2008 by Supercell

[Stratos Ferric]

SATSIGS ALERT - Ramp level 2

Satsigs is detecting mild tremors from the northern home counties. If model evolutions continue as presently trended expect this situation to continue to develop towards something that we will all be talking about for years to come...unless we have something better to talk about.