Winter 2008/9: The Coldest First Half Of Winter Since 1981/2?

[West is Best]

The night of January 13/14th represents the exact mid-point of winter.

With a December CET of 3.5 or 3.6C, and with an extremely cold start to January we must be in with a shout for the coldest first half of winter since 1981/2? I'd be very interested to have the stats for January CET figures for the following:

January 14th 1997

January 14th 1987

January 14th 1985

January 14th 1982

Edited January 4, 2009 by West is Best

[reef]

1st December 1996 - 14th January 1997: 2.2C

The first 14 days of Jan 1997 had a mean of just 0.9C. That was after the 2.9C December 1996.

We'd need January 1st - 14th 2009 to have a mean of -0.5C just to equal it. Not going to happen Im afraid.

Edited January 4, 2009 by reef

[West is Best]

Not going to happen Im afraid.

Possibly not, but I wouldn't be too sure about that. In fact a sub 0C CET by mid-point is a distinct possibility ...

However, as a matter of interest are those readings inclusive of Jan 14th?

Edited January 4, 2009 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

We'd need January 1st - 14th 2009 to have a mean of -0.5C just to equal it. Not going to happen Im afraid.

Well I wouldn't be that sure, doesn't look likely but if it goes like GFS has been trending recently it could run it close

29th November - 3rd January CET: 3.3 (-1.3)

Thats to the 1961-90 average.

We could end up with a period that goes sub 3C which has been very rare in the last 10 years.

26th December 2000-1st February 2001 CET: 2.6

Thats the only one I can think of at the moment since 1997

Edited January 4, 2009 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

I think even if the more progressive models such as the ECM are correct we are likely to see a 45 day period below 3C given the temps look like remaining very cold, maybe even severely cold yet again on Tuesday...

Doubt we beat 1996-1997 however as that had an even colder starting point, not impossible but just not likely I suspect. Still I've got a feeling we will end up with the second coldest start to a winter since 1981-82.

[Snowyowl9]

So december 1996 was 2.9c with January 2.5c

This december we don`t know yet 3.6c so if we were to say HP was around for most of January it`s possible, giving frosts and cold days to even out, it could be the coldest first 2 months of winter since 1981/82 along shot but it`s possible.

Edited January 4, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[reef]

Possibly not, but I wouldn't be too sure about that. In fact a sub 0C CET by mid-point is a distinct possibility ...

However, as a matter of interest are those readings inclusive of Jan 14th?

That was the first 14 days of January yes. It also assumed a December 2008 CET return of 3.5C, so I was actually being optimistic with my estimate, hence my comment. Even with a December turn in of just 0.1C higher, we would then require the first 14 days of January to average -0.9C.

Its not impossible of course, but the odds are very much against.

[West is Best]

That was the first 14 days of January yes. It also assumed a December 2008 CET return of 3.5C, so I was actually being optimistic with my estimate, hence my comment. Even with a December turn in of just 0.1C higher, we would then require the first 14 days of January to average -0.9C.

Its not impossible of course, but the odds are very much against.

Reef I was after the figure for the first 13 days of January ideally. The mid-point is the night of 13th Jan so it's only the first 13 days which count.

Although you say you were being optimistic you did round down the 2.277 to 2.2C whereas by your figures it should be 2.3C. We still await the December CET figure of course, but with the current Manley CET on -0.4C even before last night's uber-frost this isn't going to be a million miles away. Certainly no room for simply dismissing it! Could be very close.

Also on for the coldest first half of January since 1978/9 I think?

[Stu_London]

Also on for the coldest first half of January since 1978/9 I think?

Colder than 1987?

Colder than 1987?

Just checked - mild start meant 010187-150187 was 1.4C - so yes we will probably be colder than that

[Tucco]

Reef I was after the figure for the first 13 days of January ideally. The mid-point is the night of 13th Jan so it's only the first 13 days which count.

Although you say you were being optimistic you did round down the 2.277 to 2.2C whereas by your figures it should be 2.3C. We still await the December CET figure of course, but with the current Manley CET on -0.4C even before last night's uber-frost this isn't going to be a million miles away. Certainly no room for simply dismissing it! Could be very close.

Also on for the coldest first half of January since 1978/9 I think?

Remember CET doesn't represent the whole of England, Dec 1995 was much colder in the North of England than last month.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[cheeky_monkey]

maybe as important..have we had a colder 1st half of winter with so little snow?

[Andy Bown]

Reef I was after the figure for the first 13 days of January ideally. The mid-point is the night of 13th Jan so it's only the first 13 days which count.

How does that work? January has 31 days so halfway should be the night of the 15th, shouldn't it?

[Stu_London]

How does that work? January has 31 days so halfway should be the night of the 15th, shouldn't it?

winter 1st December to 28th February = 90 days

1st December to 14th January = 45 days

Therefore the halfway point is 14th - not 15th as above and not 13th as WIB states

[Andy Bown]

winter 1st December to 28th February = 90 days

1st December to 14th January = 45 days

Therefore the halfway point is 14th - not 15th as above and not 13th as WIB states

Ah thanks Stu, I was misreading where the halfway point was needed :blush: .

[Optimus Prime]

I make the 1st December - January 5th 3.0c. 2.0c below 71-000 average for that period. 1.5c below the 61-90 average. December 1st 1996 - January 5th 1997 averaged 2.4c.

Edited January 6, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[West is Best]

winter 1st December to 28th February = 90 days

1st December to 14th January = 45 days

Therefore the halfway point is 14th - not 15th as above and not 13th as WIB states

Sigh. Not actually what I said. <_<

The night of January 13/14th represents the exact mid-point of winter.

It's actually quite complicated because the minimum from the night of 30th Nov is included so the data received on 14th includes 45 minima and 44 maxima. This is standard CET procedure. So the mid-point is just what I said: the data on 14th, after the minima of 13th, is the mid-point.

[Habsish]

Looks a bit chilly at Niagra Falls http://www.fallsviewcam.com/

H

[johnholmes]

It may be me but I give up, does it really matter if its one chuffing day out.

Why can't you just take the heading and discuss that, is one day going to make such a huge difference?

I have no idea if by 14 or 15 January we will still be recording these low mean values that are currently occurring but its certainly the coldest spell in my back garden since December 1996 to January 1997, 28 December to about 10 January I THINK but no doubt someone will correct me if its wrong by one day.

Edited January 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[January Snowstorm]

It may be me but I give up, does it really matter if its one chuffing day out.

Why can't you just take the heading and discuss that, is one day going to make such a huge difference?

I have no idea if by 14 or 15 January we will still be recording these low mean values that are currently occurring but its certainly the coldest spell in my back garden since December 1996 to January 1997, 28 December to about 10 January I THINK but no doubt someone will correct me if its wrong by one day.

John,

A small techie question. It's down to -5 here already but very little frost

What causes the air to be so dry. Usually at -5 the whole place would be white

[johnholmes]

no idea why its so dry to be honest but lack of visible frost when an air frost has obviously occurred has been a noticeable feature of this cold spell in many parts.

I can only muse that with high pressure, usually air is subsiding, and as its gone on for so long the atmosphere is drier than usual - just a thought, no doubt someone will shoot that down with an idea of their own?

[Stratos Ferric]

no idea why its so dry to be honest but lack of visible frost when an air frost has obviously occurred has been a noticeable feature of this cold spell in many parts.

I can only muse that with high pressure, usually air is subsiding, and as its gone on for so long the atmosphere is drier than usual - just a thought, no doubt someone will shoot that down with an idea of their own?

I suspect you're bang on John.

[January Snowstorm]

no idea why its so dry to be honest but lack of visible frost when an air frost has obviously occurred has been a noticeable feature of this cold spell in many parts.

I can only muse that with high pressure, usually air is subsiding, and as its gone on for so long the atmosphere is drier than usual - just a thought, no doubt someone will shoot that down with an idea of their own?

Thanks John.

Yet another example of how very different this Winter has been sofar

[rich1]

Very, very different this year

If more of us had had snow, this winter would be going down as a potential classic for some areas. It could still do so, the intensity and severity of the frost I have not seen for years, the consistent downgrading of mild periods in the models, the absense of rain and wind, is a long way from being a 'even larger teapot'. Reminds me a little of 05-06 in dryness but the december-jan period looks genuinely cold, especially the further south you are

Up north they had most of the cold weather in the first half of december, here the january frosts have really been intense, all the more remarkable in the context that we may have had perhaps a half dozen ground frosts in the last few januaries, we may be getting more than that in the first week to 10 days of this one

a snowy period later in the winter and quite a few people will be calling this one as the best seen in some time. i would not bet against it...as far as I am concerned this is the best winter so far since 2000-1 and is a good chance it will be the coldest in over a decade, perhaps longer. So long as La Nina doesnt fire up [feel we will see that affect our weather patterns later in the year, maybe spring/summer...hmm <_< ]

[masheeuk]

With the mention of La Nina I thought this link might interest people.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...ensoyears.shtml

[Snowyowl9]

Very, very different this year

If more of us had had snow, this winter would be going down as a potential classic for some areas. It could still do so, the intensity and severity of the frost I have not seen for years, Reminds me a little of 05-06 in dryness but the december-jan period looks genuinely cold, especially the further south you are

So long as La Nina doesnt fire up [feel we will see that affect our weather patterns later in the year, maybe spring/summer...hmm ]

Very different to the last 2 winters thats for sure.

I was expecting a 1999/00 type winter with la nina it`s not going by that far from it although there was quite abit more snowfall during december 1999 to this past one as there was cold zonality, but as you say this is another dry one yet like 2005/06.

December 2005 gave less snowfall to this one,november 2005 was much better/colder though.

This is a much longer colder spell with severe frosts to 3 years ago like 1996/97 but even one or 2 colder nights and days.

But that gave alot more snowfall to this.

Only snowfall during January 2006 was from the 5th to 9th when it thawed,there was slightly more snow to this one, but this looks like lasting a few days longer with some snow lying about I would say frosts permiting .

Edited January 7, 2009 by Snowyowl9