Tropical Cyclone Charlotte

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 97S has rapidly consolidated today and has now been upgraded to a 35kt tropical cyclone, named Charlotte. Charlotte is currently in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, just east of Mornington Island. She is forecast to continue to move eastward and will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in around 12-24hrs. Therefore, Charlotte isn't expected to get all that strong, however, there is a lot of very deep convection exploding around the LLC, so rain and flooding may become a significant issue for northern Queensland. There is a small chance of Charlotte surviving at least as a low as it crosses the Cape York Peninsula into the South Pacific, just a small chance but needs to be watched nonetheless. Some modest strengthening will occur prior to landfall as Charlotte is already well organised and conditions are favourable- low shear, warm waters and good poleward outflow will all persist to facilitate this intensification.

Track map from BOM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Image of Charlotte:

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate

Storm Alert issued at 11 Jan, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHARLOTTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Burketown (17.7 S, 139.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained

.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert there Cookie, indicates that Charlotte is very near landfall. Systems that form in the Gulf Of Carpentaria never last long because it is a very small area of water, and time is running out for Charlotte. Intensity has increased to 40kts this morning as banding features continue to improve and Charlotte builds some solid convection over the centre. Heavy rains are already stretching inland and there is potential for a lot of flooding here. Charlotte as about another 6-12hrs in which to strengthen- BOM are forecasting a peak of 50kts as the storm manages to make use of the final stretch of warm waters, low shear and good poleward outflow. Due to the subtropical ridge progged to build more to the northeast of Charlotte enforcing a more southeastwards track after landfall, chances for re-emergence into the South Pacific are diminishing.

[Somerset Squall]

Charlotte kept on intensifying right up until landfall which is occuring now. Intensity is at 45kts, and banding features remain impressive. However, now the LLC is moving inland rapid weakening should commence. Charlotte is likely to bring flooding rains northern Queensland, particularly the eastern Gulf Of Carpentaria coast.

[bazookabob]

Not only the Gulf coast it would seem- the rains on the east coast seem pretty impressive even though strictly speaking they're not part of the actual cyclone, I think its all related. So far, Cairns has had 276.2mm in 24hours and somewhere near Port Douglas had 250mm in 6 hours! Beats the 243mm we had when I was in Cairns a couple of years ago- and god only knows what would happen over here if we ever got those kind of totals!!

[Cookie]

thats crazy rainfall!

[bazookabob]

Indeed and just before I go to bed here are Cairns rainfall totals for the past few days- seriously wet even for the wet season! The figures are for the 24 hours upto 9am on the dates stated by the way (remember they're half a day ahead!)

Jan 10th- 70.2mm

Jan 11th- 49.2mm

Jan 12th- 278.0mm

Jan 12th 9am-11:10am- 47.8mm

Incidentally, this month so far Cairns has had 471.6mm of rain, and this cyclone/ soon-to-be-depression hasn't even arrived there yet! Oh, and this morning the bi-annual "king-tide" is occurring so there'll be some wet socks around I reckon!

Night!

Edited January 12, 2009 by bazookabob

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the info there BB, some seriously high rainfall totals there which as you say will lead to serious flooding.

Charlotte has now dissipated as a tropical cyclone though residual rains may continue for a day yet. Regeneration is not expected as steering currents are expected to reverse spinning the remnant low back towards the southwest, further inland.