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January 1982 Remembered.


mushymanrob

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    ive often stated that the winter of 81-2 was my perfect winter, there was plenty of deep snow for a month or so which gave way to a much milder regime set in for the second half of winter.

    this was a classic example of pattern change totally removing any further wintry weather in that winter/spring.

    THIS is just one example and perhaps the most extreme of what pattern change could offer us this year now that the previous cold block has now been removed. and is the basis of what the recent 'is winter over' comments ive already made. surely after such a severe cold spell through december/early jan everyone would have thought that more cold/snow was likely?.. it would have been fair to think so.... but it didnt happen.

    now im NOT saying that winter IS over, even im not that stupid :lol: but realistically remembering the lessons of january 1982, there IS imho a very real though slight possibility that this may occur again.

    the atlantic has now kicked back in, the question is.... how long for? true, it might be a 'mild blip', or it could be in for some time, lasting weeks, months even... it isnt beyond the realms of possibility that we have atlantic driven weather from now until april, in which case winter (as in freezing cold/snow) IS over.

    now i know that in FI there are signes of blocking recurring and this morning theres even a brief easterly... but that is FI and as far as im concerned must be ignored, all of us have just been taken in by FI synoptics that failed miserabley to deliver the winter it promised, even though it has been the coldest spell for many years.

    could someone with the knowlege please explain why january 09 cant follow january 82?

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    What are you basing this on other than a comparison to 1982? Considerable stratospheric warming is projected, which will make a raging atlantic quite unlikely.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    What are you basing this on other than a comparison to 1982? Considerable stratospheric warming is projected, which will make a raging atlantic quite unlikely.

    nope, i know nothing about stratospheric warming, nor its likely effects and although the info might well be on the forum somewhere, i have not the time to trawl through .

    my point was simply that 'winter was over in mid jan 82' so when substantial pattern change occurs like this current one, is it not possible that like 82, 09 's potential for real wintry weather also be drastically reduced?

    i dont know if there was stratospheric warming or cooling in 82, and tbh im very dubious about scources to prove/disprove a point that appears to be picked up and put down at will.

    tbh i doubt very much whether we have seen the last of the cold, but i has happened before.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    All things are possible.

    Some things are more probable than others.

    I don't think this counts for the end of winter. If anything the recent trend has been for a HP to the east to assert itelf later on in Winter, at least in terms of how it effects the UK. The earlier assertion this year for me makes it more probable that it is far from a spent force this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Another example would be 2001-02 but even then I remember blizzards occuring during the second half of February for a short time for northern parts. I remember seeing lying snow here during that very mild February.

    Edit: Infact here's the BBC news report

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1837267.stm

    Having said that was winter 1995-96 over come January? The first two thirds of that January was mild to very mild and devoid of anything wintry but then came the last 3rd of that January and winter was back with renew oomph.

    The fact is we don't know.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    1985/86 was a one sided winter november was cold and snowy then december was mild at 6.2c.

    Most of January 3.5c was unmemorable here until the last 3/4 days here which were very memorable and into the next month which was the coldest month since 1963 and the coldest feb since 1947 sounds great that. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1985/86 was a one sided winter november was cold and snowy then december was mild at 6.2c.

    Most of January 3.5c was unmemorable here until the last 3/4 days here which were very memorable and into the next month which was the coldest month since 1963 and the coldest feb since 1947 sounds great that. :)

    but the difference between 82 and 86 was that in 86 the threat was always there, lurking, totally unlike 82 where the threat totally dissappeared. as it happens feb 86 was/is my most hated feb ever. all we got here was bitingly cold easterlies with days below 0c and no snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    Having said that was winter 1995-96 over come January? The first two thirds of that January was mild to very mild and devoid of anything wintry but then came the last 3rd of that January and winter was back with renew oomph.

    The fact is we don't know.

    Yes and the cold Winter weather continued through February and March which were both cold months with CET's of 2.5 and 4.5C. I suspect that had these forums been around in 1996, there would have been lots of doom and gloom on here in early January. So it does go to show...

    The other good example of a pear shaped Winter is 1996/7. In terms of wintery weather, Winter was over by mid January.

    As for this Winter, it's a matter of waiting and hoping. I have had concerns that this could be a pear shaped Winter, but it's still all to play for.

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

    Could also go the other way, 1947 was nothing special until the end of January......

    Seem to remember reading that December '46 was coldish, mid January was rather warm then the mother of all cold spells descended at the end of the month. Don't know what influence, (if any) the phases of PDO have, but the last time it switched from positive to negative was back in 1946 - did the same in April 2008.

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    Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

    Mushy, the analysis of the 81-82 winter is not really as straightforward as that, though - at least it wasn't in the south-east. I've had a look at the records for Hampstead, N London, and Whipsnade, up on the Chilterns (at http://www.weather-uk.com/index.html , sister-site to climate-uk), and at Epping, one the eastern edge of London (at http://www.eppingweather.co.uk/)

    The first week of December 81 was pretty average, sometimes a bit below. The cold - and often very cold - spell started on the 8th and continued for nearly three weeks. However, there was a much milder spell for a week from the 29th December to the 5th January, and the highest maxes & mins of January were in fact experienced then, not in the second half of the month at all. The bitter cold returned and intensified from the 6th to the 15th Jan, with heavy snow on the 8/9th. The milder weather returned from mid-month, as you say, but was slow to get properly stuck in - I think you would have to characterize the temps up till at least the 24th January as mainly average, even a bit below. The real mild came in at the tail end of January (the 29th) and continued into February.

    However, even that was not the end of winter: noticeably cold weather returned for a further ten days from February 15th-25th, with a cm of snow in many places on the 17th.

    The moral is, it ain't over till the fat lady sings. Cold winters do, indeed, drag on - and even return with a vengeance as above - and famously, of course, in 1946-47 too. Are we now at the equivalent point of mid-Jan 1982....or is this just the New Year mild spell of that winter? Probably the first, I agree: but either way I don't think this winter is entirely done with us yet.

    Ossie

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham
    ive often stated that the winter of 81-2 was my perfect winter, there was plenty of deep snow for a month or so which gave way to a much milder regime set in for the second half of winter.

    this was a classic example of pattern change totally removing any further wintry weather in that winter/spring.

    THIS is just one example and perhaps the most extreme of what pattern change could offer us this year now that the previous cold block has now been removed. and is the basis of what the recent 'is winter over' comments ive already made. surely after such a severe cold spell through december/early jan everyone would have thought that more cold/snow was likely?.. it would have been fair to think so.... but it didnt happen.

    now im NOT saying that winter IS over, even im not that stupid :lol: but realistically remembering the lessons of january 1982, there IS imho a very real though slight possibility that this may occur again.

    the atlantic has now kicked back in, the question is.... how long for? true, it might be a 'mild blip', or it could be in for some time, lasting weeks, months even... it isnt beyond the realms of possibility that we have atlantic driven weather from now until april, in which case winter (as in freezing cold/snow) IS over.

    now i know that in FI there are signes of blocking recurring and this morning theres even a brief easterly... but that is FI and as far as im concerned must be ignored, all of us have just been taken in by FI synoptics that failed miserabley to deliver the winter it promised, even though it has been the coldest spell for many years.

    could someone with the knowlege please explain why january 09 cant follow january 82?

    Cos it's a different year and no two years are the same. Do I win £5?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    Mushy, the analysis of the 81-82 winter is not really as straightforward as that, though - at least it wasn't in the south-east. I've had a look at the records for Hampstead, N London, and Whipsnade, up on the Chilterns (at http://www.weather-uk.com/index.html , sister-site to climate-uk), and at Epping, one the eastern edge of London (at http://www.eppingweather.co.uk/)

    The first week of December 81 was pretty average, sometimes a bit below. The cold - and often very cold - spell started on the 8th and continued for nearly three weeks. However, there was a much milder spell for a week from the 29th December to the 5th January, and the highest maxes & mins of January were in fact experienced then, not in the second half of the month at all. The bitter cold returned and intensified from the 6th to the 15th Jan, with heavy snow on the 8/9th. The milder weather returned from mid-month, as you say, but was slow to get properly stuck in - I think you would have to characterize the temps up till at least the 24th January as mainly average, even a bit below. The real mild came in at the tail end of January (the 29th) and continued into February.

    However, even that was not the end of winter: noticeably cold weather returned for a further ten days from February 15th-25th, with a cm of snow in many places on the 17th.

    The moral is, it ain't over till the fat lady sings. Cold winters do, indeed, drag on - and even return with a vengeance as above - and famously, of course, in 1946-47 too. Are we now at the equivalent point of mid-Jan 1982....or is this just the New Year mild spell of that winter? Probably the first, I agree: but either way I don't think this winter is entirely done with us yet.

    Ossie

    ive consulted my work diary and it wasnt cold enough to prevent or change the work we were doing in late feb 82, so whilst some parts of the country may well have had some less mild weather, and this would be perfectly normal, the cold , frosts and snow did not return to derby.

    i dont think for one moment that the current mild will last until april! :lol: although it largely did in 1980! (there was a cold easterly blip in march), the point of this thread was to highlight the possibility that 'winter is over' in terms of lengthy cold is a slight possibility IF the pattern gets locked into an atlantic regime like feb 80.

    as i see it, and i may well be totally wrong, i believe the chances of a lengthy cold spell have now been diminished, but are not extinct! ...... this is what i like about our climate... the variability, uncertainty and variety of weather we get. :)

    Cos it's a different year and no two years are the same. Do I win £5?

    fair enough, but do you point this out when the coldies are likening current synoptics to 47, 63, 79, 81, 85, 86, 87, 91?.... :)

    nah...thought not!!! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Yes Mushy a few charts from that classic January biggest snowfall in my lifetime with exceptional blizzards :lol:

    Cold lasted from this...

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119820105.gif

    I really like this type of chart it delivers the best.

    Rrea00119820110.gif

    Then it all collapsed.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119820115.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn

    Agreed with Paul Tall, you could only compare this winter after it has finished. Then it can be pigeon holed with another year in terms of similarity. Wether that will be 1982 or 1967 we will have to wait and see.

    Its a bit like Long range forecasting, Person "a" could say its going to be dry and "b" could say its gonna be raining on the 14th of September 2009 and we both stand 50/50 of being correct. Wanna know the answer, ill tell you on the 15th September :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
    Agreed with Paul Tall, you could only compare this winter after it has finished. Then it can be pigeon holed with another year in terms of similarity. Wether that will be 1982 or 1967 we will have to wait and see.

    Its a bit like Long range forecasting, Person "a" could say its going to be dry and "b" could say its gonna be raining on the 14th of September 2009 and we both stand 50/50 of being correct. Wanna know the answer, ill tell you on the 15th September :lol:

    I'll go for dry, 20c

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    waaaay too young to remember it sadly, ive not seen a winter, just crappy even larger teapot cold spells

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    All things are possible.

    Some things are more probable than others.

    I don't think this counts for the end of winter. If anything the recent trend has been for a HP to the east to assert itelf later on in Winter, at least in terms of how it effects the UK. The earlier assertion this year for me makes it more probable that it is far from a spent force this winter.

    Recent winters have seen the coldest weather reserved for the second half, the atlantic rarely stays so active throughout late winter and early spring in fact this is traditionally the time of year when it quitens down and we begin to see easterlies and northerlies come to prominence. Yes I do recall winter 01/02 and 96/97 though which saw very mild second halfs to the winter and I can see your logic in thinking, however, I don't believe that this is it for winter cold this year, yes the odds of seeing a 2 week cold spell comparable to the one we have just had are probably quite slim, but I think at least one if not two shorter cold spells at the least will occur between now and the end of february hopefully these will be a lot snowier than that we have just experienced.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    i find it totally frustrating to get cold spells in spring, especially if winter has been mild. this trend has dogged recent springs. spring warmth is IMHO the best weather type.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Another winter is 1961-62, that had a very cold December and into early January but then it came much milder and this lasted into a good part of February. Then came northerly blocking during late Feb and we then went onto have the coldest March of the 20th century.

    Then you have 1882-83, a wintry first half to December, a milder 2nd half to December, a mildish January, a very mild February and then came a very cold March with a CET of 1.9

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
    i find it totally frustrating to get cold spells in spring, especially if winter has been mild. this trend has dogged recent springs. spring warmth is IMHO the best weather type.

    I agree with you there mushyman, as much as I prefer a cold winter to mild, I find cold springs depressing!

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