Tropical Cyclone Eric

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 08S has formed, just off the east coast of Northern Madagascar. The disturbance originated from the central south Indian Ocean and has been slowly moving westwards into a more favourable environment which has allowed this development. Good outflow, warm sea temps and low shear should allow 08S strengthen further from it's current intensity of 35kts. The LLC is fairly small which may allow some fairly quick strengthening. 08S is forecast to moves southwards slong the western periphery of a steering ridge to the east. 08S, whilst not forecast to make landfall on Madagascar, is likely to continue to deliver some heavy rains down the east coast as the southerly track persists. It's worth noting that any deviations westwards in the track will bring 08S onshore and prohibate any further intensification.

Image below shows 08S just off the east coast of Madagascar (also worth noting is the rapidly organising disturbance in the Mozambique channel to the southwest of Madagascar, this one may well become a tropical cyclone very soon too):

[Cookie]

thanks for the update

[Cookie]

we have Eric

Tropical Storm ERIC is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

An image from weather underground

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, 08S has been upgaded to Tropical Cyclone Eric, but intensity remains at 35kts. The tracking charts you've posted Cookie shows the reason Eric is stuggling to intensify: he is simply too close to land. Eric's LLC has weakened and convectional coverage has reduced. However, Eric is expected to turn south-southeastwards soon which should bring him away from the east coast of Madagascar and allow some strengthening as favourable conditions persist. In about 36hrs, Eric will enter an environment of increased shear and cooler waters which should induce extratropical transition. The timing of this though is uncertain as Eric is close to TC Fanele and Eric's track could be altered if the two systems interact.

Image of tiny Eric (with a rapidly strengthening Fanele to the southwest):

[Cookie]

do you think these 2 could interact?

[Somerset Squall]

do you think these 2 could interact?

I think they will to a degree, but not like Fame and Gula last year. Fujiwhara interactions can be brief and don't always result in one storm absorbing the other. What is most likely to happen here is that Fanele will be dragged towards Eric and Eric may therefore slow down, but it's unlikely the two will get quite close enough for absorption. If they did manage the unlikely, Fanele would overcome Eric as she is stronger.

[Cookie]

the above shows how close they are

[Somerset Squall]

Good image Cookie, indeed it does.

However, Eric will be soon no more. Convection is disorganised and the storm is rapidly taking on extratropical characteristics as it reaches cooler waters and strong shear. Eric is zipping southwards quite quickly so there is little chance of regeneration.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates