Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele

[Cookie]

Tropical Storm FANELE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

and

[Somerset Squall]

This disturbance popped up yesterday and in the early hours, Tropical Cyclone Fanele formed. Fanele is sat in an environment of low shear, excellent radial outflow and very hot waters (around 32C). Therefore, intensity is already at 50kts and rapid intensification is likely. In fact, Fanele already appears to be developing an eye which is worrying for the west coast of Madagascar. Fanele is currently slowly moving westwards in a weak steering environment but is likely to be pulled northeastwards towards Eric as he moves down the east coast. This will probably bring Fanele onshore in a couple days. Judging on the current rate of intensification Fanele may cause some very serious problems for southern Madagascar. Like Eric, Fanele is quite small which will help her rapidly intensify. The latest satellite image literally just out shows that Fanele is currently much stronger than 50kts now, expect a big increase in windspeeds in the next update!!

[Cookie]

you're right mate, its a bit worrying how fast its building

[Somerset Squall]

Fanele's intensity has increased to 65kts, making it a cat 1 on the SS scale. Fanele continues to display a fairly well defined eye and some good banding features. Futher strengthening is forecasted prior to landfall in about 36hrs time. Southern Madagascar need to brace themselves for a fairly strong cyclone making landfall, I would plump for landfall intensity of 80-90kts based on current intesnity trend.

[Cookie]

new update

Tropical Cyclone FANELE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

do you think its a cat 2?

[Somerset Squall]

new update

do you think its a cat 2?

It's a cat 3 now Cookie, intensity has dramtically increased to 100kts. Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele has about another 9 hours over water so a little more intensification is possible. It's amazing that Fanele only formed in the early hours of yesterday morning and already it's a cat 3! Southern and western Madagascar are in trouble as Fanele is a very dangerous cyclone- winds are already increasing and very heavy rains are arriving on the coast and conditions are set to worsen rapidly. Best of luck to the people out there.

[Cookie]

so might been cat 2 when I posted that

yup best luck to those poor guys.

Intense Tropical Cyclone FANELE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 80% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours

Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

few images

an earlier one

[Cookie]

new update

Tropical Cyclone FANELE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Madagascar

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)

probability for TS is 95% currently

Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

it made landfall I bealive at night.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the images Cookie, shows what a beautiful storm Fanele was. Fanele is now rapidly weakening inland as it moves east-southeastwards. However, Fanele may survive southern Madagascar and move back over water. Fanele will continue to weaken even if it does though as shear is high out to the southeast of Madagascar. The storm is rapidly degrading as convectional coverage has shrunk and the eye has all but dissapeared. I put Fanele at about 60kts currently and will probably weaken to about 40kts by the time it exits out into the open water.

News article: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/01/21/...car-Cyclone.php

(It also appears Eric killed one person and left 992 homeless)

[Somerset Squall]

Well, it appears Fanele has fallen apart more quickly than I thought. The weakening LLC is far removed from the shrinking area of deep convection. It appears shear has increased a little ahead of schedule, which when coupled with interaction with rugged terrain, has caused some rapid degeneration. Intensity has decreased to 30kts. Fanele will move back over water within the next 12 hours, and as it does so, there is potential for a brief period of re-organisation before waters cool on the brisk southeasterly track which will quickly initiate extratropical transition.

[Cookie]

nice looking storm whilst it lasted, thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Fanele is back over water this morning and convection is increasing near the centre. Intensity remains at 30kts but there is scope for a little re-intensification this afternoon. Fanele will continue to move briskly southeastwards, sandwhiched between a low to the southwest and a subtropical ridge to the northeast. This will take Fanele into cooler waters and stronger shear beyond 12 hours, and Fanele is expected to complete extratropical transition rapidly, perhaps in 24 hours time.

[Somerset Squall]

Widepread distruction, flooding and homlessness caused by Fanele, thankfully the death toll only stands at 1. More info may be made available in the coming days:

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0...2457319,00.html

[Somerset Squall]

Fanele has re-strengthened this evening, and is now at 35kts. However, the system is looking increasingly extratropical as the windfield is expanding, frontal features are forming and remaining convection is considerably less deep. Extratropical transition will be complete within the next 12 hours as Fanele continues to accelerate southeastwards into the cold Southern Ocean.

[Cookie]

Widepread distruction, flooding and homlessness caused by Fanele, thankfully the death toll only stands at 1. More info may be made available in the coming days:

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0...2457319,00.html

thats always good news that it wasn't only 1 could have been a lot worse