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Is Mother Nature A Better Weather Predictor Than The Models?


kent

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Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset

    Since this subject has been discussed in the Model thread thread today, I thought I'd open a seperate thread.

    Below are some of the posts - What are your thoughts?

    Looks like the GFS 06z is trending milder next week with more of a Tropical Maritime flavour for the south in particular but with low pressures to the north of the uk it should remain rather colder in the very far north, temps today touching 10c in parts of england but then somewhat colder to end the week.

    I agree entirely, winter for us on the south coast is now officially over,not that it ever began in terms of snowfall as I still havent seen one snowflake here on the central south coast for more than 3 years now.

    All the models now are pointing to an early spring. The models I am referring to are not the GFS or the ECM but quite simply the blue tits in my garden who are now actively seeking and checking out their nesting boxes. Mother nature is far superior as an indicator to the possible outcome of weather than anything man can allude to.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    All the models now are pointing to an early spring. The models I am referring to are not the GFS or the ECM but quite simply the blue tits in my garden who are now actively seeking and checking out their nesting boxes. Mother nature is far superior as an indicator to the possible outcome of weather than anything man can allude to.

    could be that they end up very 'blue' in a fortnights time. :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    Mother nature is far superior as an indicator to the possible outcome of weather than anything man can allude to.

    I'm afraid I don't entirely agree with that, too often I read reports from my archives of mother nature being caught out ie plants have advanced to be only strucked down by frost/snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    I'm afraid I don't entirely agree with that, too often I read reports from my archives of mother nature being caught out ie plants have advanced to be only strucked down by frost/snow.

    +1

    nature is always reactive rather than predictive

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

    Agree with Stu - nature has no idea what is going to happen, it just goes by what's happening at the time. Since our summers and winters are both a series of cold and mild/cool and hot spells, just because the daffs are out doesn't mean the mild spell will continue forever.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    I very much remember the birds in my garden chirruping away in chorus on a bitterly cold evening during Feb 86 as I was gingerly breaking up ice on the family fish pond! I am a firm believer in mother nature's overall control and the messages she sends, but I don't think that the activity referred to here has anything to do with upcoming weather!

    And winter either in terms of the meteorological calendar, and most especially in terms of weather type, is far far from over! No early Spring for me either - in fact it could be especially cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

    In regards to the birds, I am lead to believe that birds start to sing and make nests not when the weather gets warmer but when the days get longer - therefore, you will always hear them this time of year... it's nothing to do with global warming or mild winters...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I agree too. Just how animals can predict the weather, I've always been at a loss to see. IMO, they can only react to past or present conditions: light, temperature or whatever...

    You'll not find much morphic resonance here, I'm afraid... :):)

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone

    I breed birds and can say that their breeding cycles are linked to the length of the day. If i want to start my birds breeding early i leave the light on in the breeding house longer and if i want to stop them i simply turn it off earlier. It also has something to do with the availablity of food. More food more breeding.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria

    When I worked over one winter for the RSPB it was mild in December and lots of small birds could be seen making nests, carrying twigs around etc and generally getting ready to mate. This was just a reaction to the fairly long period of mild weather, it meant nothing, February and March went on to be cold and very snowy that year. So I agree with those who say that nature justs reacts to the conditions at that time.  :lol:

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    I believe, though not entirely sure, that the date's of migratory birds, such as swifts and swallows, arrival in the country does vary, and could be considered an indicator of i.e. an early spring, implying somehow that they have some knowledge or instinct as to what the weather will be on their arrival.

    They can travel enormous distances, say some 8,000 miles, from South Africa.

    If this were to be the case, I cannot see them watching the satellite forecasts for the UK, or getting in touch with Netweather via the internet, so do any of you bird (feathered variety) bird watchers out there have any ideas?

    On another tact, I have noticed that the time of the frogs spawning in my pond appears to vary quite a bit and sometimes it is as early as February and at others it appears to be as much as 6 weeks later. I've always had the impression that it depends on the temperature of the water.

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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    This is the natural time of the year for blue tits do be doing their thing. I think we are given a lot of false signals that are not really there! For three years in the papers I have read how bulbs are coming up ... of course they are! They would not flower in the spring if they didn't come up now. I think mother nature may give its signals but that have more subtlety and the seasons may be changing slightly nothing remains static but nothing tells me that winter is over whatever that means!

    I am sure migratory birds do vary in their departure dates slightly and this may be for lots for reasons, maybe weather, food, wind, in the country they are departing from certainly not the one they are going to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    +1

    nature is always reactive rather than predictive

    but we are "nature" too, just coz the wilder parts of nature do not have super computers, does not mean that they are clueless.

    Just think how people have been relying on farmers and the like .

    We've all heard the saying, "if you want to know what the weather's going to do...ask a farmer".

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    Since this subject has been discussed in the Model thread thread today, I thought I'd open a seperate thread.

    Below are some of the posts - What are your thoughts?

    I agree entirely, winter for us on the south coast is now officially over,not that it ever began in terms of snowfall as I still havent seen one snowflake here on the central south coast for more than 3 years now.

    All the models now are pointing to an early spring. The models I am referring to are not the GFS or the ECM but quite simply the blue tits in my garden who are now actively seeking and checking out their nesting boxes. Mother nature is far superior as an indicator to the possible outcome of weather than anything man can allude to.

    I agree with most on this thread. Mother Nature reacts to what is happening now and what has gone on before. It has absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the future other than if the days are getting longer then Spring will be here soon. The proof is that it often gets fooled, IMO there are way too many old wives tales out there that bare no relation to anything even remotely factual that are latched onto.

    As for your winter's over comment on the south coast, what do you base that on? If it is on pure probability based on how many times it snowed in your location from the 23rd of January until the winter end, over the past xx amount of years then that's a reasonable bet but if you throw in the indicators that are there that say we MIGHT just get a cold blast then I think you would be wise to wait a few more weeks before making that statement.

    Every year I hear the same drivvel about the dafodils coming up earlier each yeah etc etc etc. Just like some of us are deluded about the amount of snowfall we actually used to get in our youth (not as much as we think it was) , many are equally confused about early spring pointers. I drove home from work today and noticed a few things that show that we are heading away from mid-winter, a rabbit, a deer and birds singing. It's what happens at this time of year EVERY year! :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire

    I haven't really read the above but i think nature is reactive rather than anything else

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    Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

    I can remember a couple of years ago around October time that 'nature' was showing signs of preparing for a severe winter. I read this on TWO I believe. This was based on squirrels gathering a lot more nuts than normal and a very quiet autumn period lacking in wind and rain, in fact I recall it was like summer until late October! Anyway the winter came and like the past unmteen winters was mild to very mild. You could say that nature got it wrong then

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    I can remember a couple of years ago around October time that 'nature' was showing signs of preparing for a severe winter. I read this on TWO I believe. This was based on squirrels gathering a lot more nuts than normal and a very quiet autumn period lacking in wind and rain, in fact I recall it was like summer until late October! Anyway the winter came and like the past unmteen winters was mild to very mild. You could say that nature got it wrong then

    Or that we got it wrong in our interpretation of it?

    a few years ago on the BBC board there was a massive 'berries' discussion where it was suggested that a cold winter was precided by a mass of holly berries and such.

    Now this winter/autumn the holly berries have been almost completely absent, I should know as my main job through december is to collect holly sprigs for the holly wreathes and me and my workmates know every holly bush for a square mile around work.

    Now this year there has been , so far, a below average winter and we all noted that maybe it has been such a long time since we have had a cold winter that these signs have been lost by word of mouth.

    I don't beleive that they should be ignored at all, but wholeheartedly inclueded in predictions as another variable.

    The failier to do so clearly demostrates an arrogant disregard to nature and things that narrow minded, souless scientists will never let themsleves understand.

    All i know is that when you are on your deathbed, everyone prays!! Even scientists who swear that nature has no understanding about it own affairs.

    I'm not religeous (agnostic) but do believe a bit more credit should be given to a planet and it's animals that have been around a damm site longer than the 35 years that computers have been around, after all, we all used to rely on nature (human forecasts)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    It maybe as a species, we have lost the ability to listen to what nature is telling us.

    i'm not even sure it's that we have lost it.

    It's more that the scientists have not let us listen to nature, we are now modern day heretics!

    One thing that has come true is that science has become the new religion for a now godless britain, and woe be tied any of us mere, stupid ,uneducated mortals if we question anything that the "gods" of science tell us!

    The evidence to that IS all around!

    My favourite subject at school used to be science, but now, for all it's benifits, it's turning into something nasty and manipulative.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    We've all heard the saying, "if you want to know what the weather's going to do...ask a farmer".

    200 years' ago, and that would have been by far the best option. But, when a farmer informed me, in all sencerity, that droughts are caused be military jets 'cutting the clouds in half' I realized that maybe the METO is a better bet nowadays? :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
    200 years' ago, and that would have been by far the best option. But, when a farmer informed me, in all sencerity, that droughts are caused be military jets 'cutting the clouds in half' I realized that maybe the METO is a better bet nowadays? :)

    That's odd, because I was told by someone (and of resonable intelligence, or so I'd previously assumed... :D ) that "droughts are caused by all those rockets they fire up into the air making holes in the sky" So obviously it goes without saying, before rockets were invented there were no droughts, easy really... :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Not withstanding my earlier comments in this thread, I do believe that animals, including humans (to a lesser extent as our senses have been dulled by technological comforts) are able to sense very short term events.

    For example a sudden drop in air pressure will send birds and animals into a flat spin as it heralds an incoming storm. Also, can anyone deny that the quality of light and air before the arrival of frontal snow (if anyone can remember!) has a unique quality.

    Perhaps this is natures way of sending a 'take cover' warning, but it certainly doesn't apply to seasonal predictions. I remember well the berries thread on the old BBC threads and posted several times that the berry harvest had everything to do with rain and sunshine levels during the preceding growing season and nothing to do with the weather in the subsequent season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
    Is Mother Nature A Better Weather Predictor Than The Models?

    Anything has to be better than the goddamn climate models.....oh, you mean GFS et al?

    Mother Nature all the way. Models are useful and often not far from the progged forecast (outwith those bloody climate boffin predictions using models :D - did I ever tell you I hate them? :) )

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