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Guest North Sea Snow Convection
I am one of those 'modern winterists' as you put it and there is nothing that has happened this winter that has changed my mind that the climate is warming.

I don't think anyone is saying 'it can't happen anymore', just that it isn't happening much in recent years and the years are ticking by. Something has changed and as each year passes it's another year to add to the, let's call it, 'less wintry period' that we are in.

One winter rather colder than the long term average, first for many years and coldest since when, 96? But How can one winter change anyone's view? Winters are no longer as cold as they were (can't argue with the facts) and although cold weather can and does still occur, it fails (at the moment) to bring the low temperatures that we used to get and, in the main, does not last as long. This winter has tried valiantly to halt the trend and came very close. Who knows how long this will continue?

That is not to say that I am in the 'winters were always much colder I were a lad' camp either. Winter weather fluctuates; of course it does. There have always been mild winters even in runs of very cold ones and in the depths of our coldest periods.

The point is, we are in a phase where sustained cold weather is not happening very often compared to the very mild conditions that prevail more often than not. They haven't prevailed this year; and yes, it has been cold, but not bitingly so. The programme that was on the TV last week must have been rather amusing (I admit I didn't see it) and more than a little embarrassing I would think. Where did they manage to find enough material for their 'Arctic Britain' I wonder?

Weather patterns change over time. This may, in the very long term, lead to climate change as climate is derived from weather over a long period of time 'averaged' out. It may just be an (albeit rather long) blip. Some of us doubt that more than others I guess but neither camp can predict the future so we just have to comment on what each passing season brings.

Same old circular debate making the same old points isn't it? We would probably agree on that at least.

As I would say (in vain) to your mentor and sidekick, a case of differing perspectives as usual.

This winter indeed hasn't been very cold, but not sure I have ever suggested it had anyway.

I wouldn't expect you to change your mind (short of a mini ice age winter) and shed the MW flag - but am totally ambivalent tbh whether you ever do or not. However, not making like for like comparisons and now comparing this winter with historically outlied coldest winters is bound to lead to disappointment. But then I can't help but suspect it is disappointment that is being searched for, so the goalposts have to move accordingly to maintain the same margins of shortfall and keep the UK on mild status alert since 'D-day' winter 1988. What is built up in your MW annuls to be (apparently!) the year the switch turned for good.

If one insists on making a big fuss about trying to make 20 years circa post 1988 a defining epoch of climate history that somehow intimates that milder winters have some pre-cambrian length status in interminable longevity, then this really just adds up to making a ongoing running modern soap series about what is really a natural cyclical pattern that has always ebbed and flowed since climate history began. Hence as Mr Data has previously illustrated well several times before, there were Moose and Stratos Ferric types scribbling away about 'modern winterism' back in the earlier part of the 20th Century. Nothing new or revolutionary here then.

There is no consistent approach of measuring shortfall in comparison with an average winter because there have been a recent surfeit of above average winters, but then when a colder than average winter comes along this year to break the recent sequence, then changing the method to comparing with it a very cold winter to keep the same old even larger teapot spin burning. Yes we have seen a pattern of more frequently milder winters in recent years. Big deal though. It means absolutely nothing in terms of the future and hence not worth reading more into it than there there is. Back to cyclicality. If a very cold winter does come along soon, which it well might, then no doubt it will be declared the last (rogue)one ever, or it will be measured against the winter of 1740 or something :blush:

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

I think that only a winter with a CET of 0 or below will satisfy some people. I happen to think a winter ave of 3.53 is not bad at all - almost a whole degree below the 1961-1990 average. Oh, and before anyone accuses me of being too young to remember a 'real' winter - I was born in the 60's.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Didn't Aberdeen have something like 17 consecutive days of snow cover? That would probably have been unusual even in the early to mid 1980s.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection
I think that only a winter with a CET of 0 or below will satisfy some people. I happen to think a winter ave of 3.53 is not bad at all - almost a whole degree below the 1961-1990 average. Oh, and before anyone accuses me of being too young to remember a 'real' winter - I was born in the 60's.

I agree.

I too am a lady born in that same era and this last winter sits with many from that time. Only 62/63 and 68/69 were better.

In terms of a return to a below average winter then this one should have put some perspective on things :)

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Didn't Aberdeen have something like 17 consecutive days of snow cover? That would probably have been unusual even in the early to mid 1980s.

Don't remember exactly. Stopped counting after a while but around 2 weeks or so certainly. The thaw was on when I came back from a trip south (the 15th I think). First snow that lay didn't come with the easterly (we never get anything but rain from them) but a bit later from a NW (I think) overnight 3-4th. We even got sideswiped by a decaying polar low at some point. Outwith the city there was a lot more snow - they had snowfall from the earlier easterly than we had here.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
I agree.

I too am a lady born in that same era and this last winter sits with many from that time. Only 62/63 and 68/69 were better.

In terms of a return to a below average winter then this one should have put some perspective on things :)

dpends what you mean by better?..purely in terms of temperature..62/63, 63/64, 64/65, 67/68, 68/69 & 69/70 were all colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

True, but not al of those colder winters were necessarily any snowier. Those of 1962/63, 1968/69 and 1969/70 were certainly snowier, but 1963/64 was somewhat less snowy.

I derived my own "winter snow events" classification index, based on a combination of sources including Wetterzentrale, Trevor Harley, Brocanica 1875-2004, Weather Log, Philip Eden sources etc. I still haven't got around to updating 2008/09 yet, and the results should certainly be interesting. And there might be more to come.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
dpends what you mean by better?..purely in terms of temperature..62/63, 63/64, 64/65, 67/68, 68/69 & 69/70 were all colder.

probably so but to me most posters are being realistic and trying to compare this winter with the past 10 possibly 20 years.

My figures, posted elsewhere, for this winter show a fairly direct comparison with what is 'sensible' if that is the word, for asking people to compare over the relatively recent past.

Winter 2008-2009

December was the coldest since 2003

January the coldest since 1997 and February the coldest since 2006.

The winter as a whole is the coldest since 2002-2003 and it's the 6th ? 7th coldest since 1990-91.

The mean temperature showed 4.5C with the 1991-2000 average at 4.7C

Using the Mr D winter index gives a value of 67.3

I have not sufficient data for the winter of 1995-96 but it has higher values than previous other winters back to 1990-91 which had 127.1, the winter of 2003-04 gave 63.2.

The average number of days of snow falling/ lying for 1971-2000 for this area is 5/3, this year I recorded 10/11

For air/ground frost the average is 9/16 this year gave 31/50

It is true that winters in the 20th century did AT TIMES show much more overall severity but then of course, for whatever reason, the earth, including the UK, has warmed in the past 60 years or so that I've been around. Thus comparing this winter with cold winters of 40-60 years ago is really of not much use, or so it seems to me.

Having looked at the years CM quotes, 1963-4, 64-5, 67-8, 68-9, 69-70 and compared the CET for those years/months with the CET data for 2008-09 its not really as clear cut as he suggests

to 1 decimal place there are only three years in that list lower than 2008-09, they area

64-5 at 3.3C, 68-9 at 3.2C, and 69-70 at 3.3C again. The other two years show the same value as 2008-09 with 3.5C. They do in fact show a total of 10.5 each with 2008-09 at 10.6 so in that sense they were a tiny fraction colder.

Best to try and be exact.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

My "Winter Snow Events", for those who are unclear, is an attempt to create an index of winter snowiness, taking the number of snow events and assigning each event a weight of between 1 and 5, higher numbers denoting more severe and/or widespread events. Like all such measures it has its flaws- for instance my method does not take into account duration of snow cover, so a winter with repeated heavy snow events but some thaws in between (e.g. 1978/79) will get a higher score than a winter with fewer snow events but prolonged snow cover (e.g. 1962/63). But as with Mr_Data's winter index, it is an attempt to get a relatively objective assessment. I will re-post the file at the end of Season 2008/09, most likely in May sometime.

The score for the 2008/09 season (including the October & November events) currently stands at 22, which is equal to the figure for the entire 2000/01 season, which in turn was the only season since 1995/96 to exceed 20. Any snow events from now until May will make 2008/09 the snowiest since 1995/96.

To beat 1995/96, which scored 26, this spring needs to accumulate at least 5 points' worth of snow events. It's quite a tall order, but not out of the question- the springs of 1995, 2001, 2006 and 2008 managed this.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
The 12 month running mean is now 9.54C, which could well be the bottom, as March would have to be 6.1C or lower to have any impact downwards.

Actually this could dip a little further yet as the coldest part of March 2008 was towards the end. Wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 9.4s in the first week.

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