February CET

[phil nw.]

I will go for 3.3C please.

[artic fox]

3.5 Please

[The Calm before the Storm]

A coolish 3.5c for me please!

[Mark Bayley]

3.2c for me please cold first half turning milder in the last week maybe. With the exceptional stratospheric warming event i would expect a lot of northern blocking round this month.

[Megamoonflake]

3.5c for me please, same prediction as January! :winky:

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

I think this is the month we are going to crack the magic 3.

Having predicted 3.1 for January, you've just got to trust me on this :winky:

So I'll go for +2.8C

A pretty exceptional first week for cold; a chilly middle and a spring-like end is on the cards

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

It would be interesting to know what Craig's average of being out by is. Even April 2007, one of the closest he has come to, he was still out by 1.3

Lol, i think he tries to be as far out as possible!

I will go for 3.7C please!

[reef]

4.4C for me please.

If January finishes at 3.1C, then a 2.4C February would give a winter CET of 3.00C, making it the coldest since 1986/87 and the first winter since 1962/63 with all 3 months more than 1C below the relevent 30 year average.

It would be amazing if it happened, especially as its a hale winter, but Im going with my head on this one!

[Stratos Ferric]

4.4C for me please.

If January finishes at 3.1C, then a 2.4C February would give a winter CET of 3.00C, making it the coldest since 1986/87 and the first winter since 1962/63 with all 3 months more than 1C below the relevent 30 year average.

It would be amazing if it happened, especially as its a hale winter, but Im going with my head on this one!

Certainly looking like continuing the Hale pattern. This appears to be the last bastion of generally accepted short term patterns - in the UK at least.

As to this month: being shorter it has the best chance of landing low, and sub 3; we pass through what is, on average, the coldest part of the year, even though by month's end the sun is starting to get well up.

Certainly an interesting and, at the moment, enticing looking month for snow fans, but I suspect the PFJ will back by mid month, if not before. Cold start, though I suspect not quite so cold as January - unless we get extensive snow cover and settled air following - but I doubt staying cold throughout. In the 3's again seems most likely outcome to me.

3.7C

[mulzy]

3.0 C for me please

[snowsure]

Will this prompt anyone to change their bids?

If you assume that it will have an impact on temperatures in Feb then changing your bid is logical (unless your methods of calculation took it into account.)

If you assume it will make no difference (like NASA) then you will make no adjustments.

Personally I'll revise my bid down to 4.2*C.

Edited January 31, 2009 by snowsure

[Snowly does it]

4.4C for me please.

If January finishes at 3.1C, then a 2.4C February would give a winter CET of 3.00C, making it the coldest since 1986/87 and the first winter since 1962/63 with all 3 months more than 1C below the relevent 30 year average.

It would be amazing if it happened, especially as its a hale winter, but Im going with my head on this one!

Another fascinating fact for fact hunters - given that Jan looks certain (unless massively adjusted) to come in below 3.8, then if Feb can also come in below 3.8 then it will be the only winter that has had all 3 months below the 61-90 average since that average came into being (90-91 was the last time the numbers were hit but of course, in December 1990 the 61-90 average did not yet exist)

90-91 is the last time all 3 winter months were below the relevant 30 year average

Thanks to warm Decembers in the 80 generally, 78-79 was the most recent example before that and also the last time all 3 winter months were below 4 degrees - which happened in 69-70, 64-65 and 62-63

If (big if) feb comes in at 3.7 or below therefore it will not be bitter in absolute terms but statistically would be a significant winter I would say.

[Mr Maunder]

I'm going for 3.1c for this month.

MM

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

+3.8 thanks

[mountain shadow]

+3.5oC

[stricklands1984]

3.2 please

[acbrixton]

3.8c for me please.

regards

ACB

[SMU]

2.9 C for me please-

S

[Optimus Prime]

4.4C for me please.

If January finishes at 3.1C, then a 2.4C February would give a winter CET of 3.00C, making it the coldest since 1986/87

1986/1987 came in at 3.5c. It would make it the coldest winter since 1985/1986 which came in at 2.9c.

If February equalled the warmest on record (7.9c) the winter would still only come in at 4.8c.

[SLEETY]

2.6c

[Supercell]

I will go for 4.1C

[reef]

1986/1987 came in at 3.5c. It would make it the coldest winter since 1985/1986 which came in at 2.9c.

If February equalled the warmest on record (7.9c) the winter would still only come in at 4.8c.

Good spot there, I did indeed mean 1985/86 (2.90C).

1986/87 was 3.53C and spoilt by a mild December.

[Paul T]

Hi All,

3.6oc.

Cold air coming over as we speak will linger, so fairly low temps should be expected.

Cheers, Paul

[ukmoose]

I'll go for 3.7 please.

Thanks

[wellington boot]

2.9 is taken so I'll get aggressive and go for 1.3C

Edited January 31, 2009 by wellington boot