Bay Of Biscay

[Mondy]

Interesting feature emerging:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/R...y/4IBmapEkAZcqj

From the shipping forecast:

Biscay

Cyclonic becoming westerly severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12 in south, decreasing 5 to 7 later. Very rough or high, increasing very high in south. Rain or squally showers. Poor or very poor

FitzRoy

Cyclonic becoming northwesterly severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12 in south, backing southwesterly gale 8 to storm 10. Very rough or high, increasing very high in south. Rain or squally showers. Poor or very poor

Fairly unsual to see those shipping areas with such strong wind speeds forecast.

[Roger J Smith]

Rapidly deepening 975 mb low is tracking about due east from 46N 15W, strongest winds from ship report northwest of Spain at 42N 12W 45 knots, track is indicated on all models to have this low inland between Bordeaux and Nantes around 04-06z with strongest winds over land likely to be gusts to 70 mph or about 120 km/hr in northern Spain and southwest France tonight. This low continues to head east towards the Alps and its circulation will be sheared off over the Channel so that none of the east winds associated will make much of an impact in the southern part of England.

People wishing to follow its progress should check with meteociel.fr and click on various weather elements to see how things are developing, would suggest checking it after 2100h for anything really interesting. Biscay reports can be found at

http://ndbc.noaa.gov

click on the map sector for that region, then on the buoys indicated, then utilize the "all reports within 250 miles" feature to get nearby ship reports. There is also a menu left including ship obs, you can then see a much longer global list. Just a heads up to first time users, longitude is given in negative numbers for west and positive for east. Latitude is as you would expect, positive north, negative south.

Speaking of storms, there is a steady parade of tasty bits from now to the end of January, but the storm currently shown for 31 Jan on the GFS looks worse than last Saturday's for Ireland and western Scotland. Something to keep an eye on.

[nick sussex]

This is a real worry as meteo france have now updated their warnings to red with gusts possible between 130 and 160 kms an hour and I fear a blackout tomorrow!

I'm really hoping theres a last minute downgrade to this.

[Rollo]

This is a real worry as meteo france have now updated their warnings to red with gusts possible between 130 and 160 kms an hour and I fear a blackout tomorrow!

I'm really hoping theres a last minute downgrade to this.

I hope everything ends up ok for you Nick. Batten down the hatches!

[nick sussex]

I hope everything ends up ok for you Nick. Batten down the hatches!

Thanks Rollo thats very nice of you.

I'm really not the stormchaser type! on a very silly level though I'm disappointed that in all probability the power will go out and I'll miss the Andy Murray tennis match on satelitte! thats if I still have a dish by tomorrow!

I'm hoping there will be a last minute downgrade and it won't be as bad as they've forecast, they mention this could be the worst storm since December 1999.

Edited January 23, 2009 by nick sussex

[Mondy]

Couple of links to keep an eye on Nick:

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?dat...p;map=FrancePNM

http://www.sat24.nl/

Where exactly are you in relation to the system?

[nick sussex]

Couple of links to keep an eye on Nick:

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?dat...p;map=FrancePNM

http://www.sat24.nl/

Where exactly are you in relation to the system?

Thanks Delta Ray

I'm in sw France, 15 kms se of Pau near the border of the Pyrenees Atlantique and the Hautes Pyrenees.

[Roger J Smith]

I would take the warning very seriously depending on your local exposure to the west, if you lived further north where it's flatter, I would say 100% chance this will verify, one warning sign was a ship report of sustained 53 knot NE winds on the backside of this low. It is normal for maximum forward side speeds to be 20 knots higher than backside winds and it is still developing. The track will squeeze the surface flow between the mountains in northern Spain and the storm centre, and the Pyrenees would continue this forcing inland. And as you know, southwest France is flat for quite a distance south of Bordeaux and these ocean winds will find little resistance inland until well east of Bergerac to Toulouse.

Nick, I see that you are close to Lourdes, I would think that in your vicinity the winds could be modified considerably by the local terrain, the winds look to be strongest from the WSW direction (around 0300h) but will eventually veer to WNW around sunrise, so if you are exposed to those directions the winds could be extreme, if you are sheltered it might skip over your location and hit somewhere else nearby instead.

I'm not very familiar with the local effects but there must be some local wind tunnel locations downwind from passes in the Pyrenees, as there are in Alberta near the mountain passes. Rich over in Canmore AB can confirm that it is not very windy most of the time where he is, but there are local spots east of there in the foothills, quite suitable for wind farms. Down in southern Alberta there is one wind tunnel location with a narrow valley leading out of the Rockies, Waterton Lakes National Park, the wind often doubles in speed through there and can reach 80 mph at times.

[Roger J Smith]

La Coruna in northwest Spain reports winds 260 (but varying 220 to 310) gusting to 53 kts at 20z.

The strongest winds in this system are about 100 nm north of there.

[Mondy]

Dept 64: http://france.meteofrance.com/vigilance/Bulletin?ZONE=dept64

[nick sussex]

Thanks Roger for your thoughts. Where I live I'm on a south facing ridge but not at the top of the hill, I'm hoping that as the winds veer more wnw I might get a bit of shelter, also I have a wooded area which is west facing and maybe this might allow some further shelter, thankfully thats far enough away from the house to not be too much of a worry although theres one large oak tree a little too close for comfort. Yes indeed I'm close to Lourdes about 20 kms northwest of there.

[Phil UK]

Nick, I see that you are close to Lourdes, I would think that in your vicinity the winds could be modified considerably by the local terrain, the winds look to be strongest from the WSW direction (around 0300h) but will eventually veer to WNW around sunrise, so if you are exposed to those directions the winds could be extreme, if you are sheltered it might skip over your location and hit somewhere else nearby instead.

I'm not very familiar with the local effects but there must be some local wind tunnel locations downwind from passes in the Pyrenees,

Having been to Lourdes myself back in May 1995, the weather was not quite what you would expect for late May in that part of the world. Much of the week was cold, wet and windy, the Pyrenees, although being a glorious sight in clear and sunny weather and with the still snowcapped tops at the time are barely visible in wet weather.

On our arrival, the weather was hot and sunny, temps around 26/28ºc but the rest of the week was pretty much downhill. (pardon the pun!) If the temp reached 16/17ºc then that was about it but it was windy and as Roger says, the mountains do seem to have some sort of effect on wind strength. I'm guessing that it's not all that much different from living in say, Scotland and the more mountainous regions where orographic uplift and windspeed can be greatly affected.

But I did bring home one souvenier...

The flu!

I did take some pics on an old SLR camera. I will try to locate them, scan and post on here at some point.

Phil.

[nick sussex]

Having been to Lourdes myself back in May 1995, the weather was not quite what you would expect for late May in that part of the world. Much of the week was cold, wet and windy, the Pyrenees, although being a glorious sight in clear and sunny weather and with the still snowcapped tops at the time are barely visible in wet weather.

On our arrival, the weather was hot and sunny, temps around 26/28ºc but the rest of the week was pretty much downhill. (pardon the pun!) If the temp reached 16/17ºc then that was about it but it was windy and as Roger says, the mountains do seem to have some sort of effect on wind strength. I'm guessing that it's not all that much different from living in say, Scotland and the more mountainous regions where orographic uplift and windspeed can be greatly affected.

But I did bring home one souvenier...

The flu!

I did take some pics on an old SLR camera. I will try to locate them, scan and post on here at some point.

Phil.

Well you should have been here this last spring which was absolutely awful, it made the UK seem dry! however the summer down here was much better than what you had to cope with back in the UK. The Pyrenees I can testify do look wonderful in the sunshine, unfortunately the last few days down here have been wet and miserable. The weather can be very up and down, around Xmas we had some snow, then it warmed up with some beautiful days and able to sit outside, then January arrived with that very cold spell, maxes for several days below freezing and snow, it warmed up again and now we just have warm rain which is not great news for the ski resorts although its expected to turn colder with lots of fresh snow over the next few days.

[Roger J Smith]

SHIP REPORT 21z

44.2 N 7.5 W (about 100 miles northeast of La Coruna Spain)

WSW 80 knots

[Cookie]

SHIP REPORT 21z

44.2 N 7.5 W (about 100 miles northeast of La Coruna Spain)

WSW 80 knots

92 mph

[Mondy]

Fitzroy, issued on Friday 23 January 2009 at 2142

Hurricane force 12 veering northwesterly and decreasing severe gale force 9 soon

Are Brittany or Gascogne buoys still reporting?

Edited January 23, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[nick sussex]

SHIP REPORT 21z

44.2 N 7.5 W (about 100 miles northeast of La Coruna Spain)

WSW 80 knots

Good grief! its funny at the moment its quite calm outside, I was almost slipping into denial there for a while! I wonder whether the storm is tracking slightly further north than forecast this afternoon.

[mettalfabrik]

jeez, latest chart from OPC updated 2059Z

[Nick F]

69knot (80mph) gusts at La Coruna looking at latest 22z METAR:

LA CORUNA/ALVEDRO LECO 232200Z 26031G69KT 220V290 9999 FEW016 SCT030 BKN038 13/07 Q0992 WS ALL RWY

2200 meteocentre plot:

2200 airmass and satellite:

[Zenarcher]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/FR/observations

Shows gusty winds and the forecast by xc weather looks really stormy.

[mettalfabrik]

FRENCH high seas warning 2210 UTC

WONT50 LFPW 232214

A

SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,

WARNING NR 45 , FRIDAY 23 JANUARY 2009 AT 2210 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, FRIDAY 23 AT 12UTC

LOW 978 45N21W, MOVING WEST AND DEEPENING, EXPECTED 973 IN BAY OF

BISCAY BY 24/00UTC, THEN REACHING SOUTH OF FRANCE LATER.

NEW LOW EXPECTED 978 54N42W BY 24/00UTC, THEN MOVING WEST AND

DEEPENING, EXPECTED 957 52N18W BY 25/00UTC.

FARADAY

CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC AT LEAST

SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9, VEERING WEST OR NORTHWEST 9 OR 10 LATER. SEVERE

GUSTS. HIGH OR VERY HIGH SEA.

ALTAIR

CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC AT LEAST

SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9, VEERING LATER, WEST OR NORTHWEST LATER 8 OR 9,

LOCALLY 10 IN NORTH. SEVERE GUSTS. HIGH OR VERY HIGH SEA.

ROMEO

CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC AT LEAST

CYCLONIC 8 TO 10, LOCALLY 11 IN EAST, BACKING SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9

FROM WEST SOON, THEN VEERING WEST OR NORTHWEST 8 OR 9 LATER.

VIOLENT GUSTS. HIGH OR VERY HIGH SEA.

CHARCOT

CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC AT LEAST

WEST OR NORTHWEST 8 TO 10, BUT LOCALLY 11 OR 12 IN NORTHEAST ,

BACKING SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9 FROM WEST SOON, THEN VEERING WEST OR

NORTHWEST 8 OR 9 LATER. VIOLENT GUSTS. HIGH OR VERY HIGH SEA.

JOSEPHINE

CONTINUING TO 24/00UTC

IN NORTHEAST : NORTHWEST, 8. SEVERE GUSTS. HIGH SEA.

IROISE, YEU

FROM 24/00UTC TO 24/12UTC

CYCLONIC 8, LOCALLY 9 IN SOUTH, BECOMING NORTHWEST SOON. VIOLENT

GUSTS. CROSS HIGH SEA.

AGAIN FROM 24/18UTC TO 25/00UTC

SOUTHWEST 8. SEVERE GUSTS. CROSS HIGH SEA.

ROCHEBONNE

IMMINENT AND CONTINUING TO 24/15UTC

SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10, VEERING NORTHWEST 9 OR 10 SOON. VIOLENT GUSTS.

CROSS HIGH SEA.

CANTABRICO

IMMINENT AND CONTINUING TO 24/15UTC

SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10, VEERING SOON, NORTHWEST 9 TO 11, OCCASIONALLY

12 , DECREASING LATER. VIOLENT GUSTS. HIGH OR VERY HIGH, CROSS SEA.

PAZENN

CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC AT LEAST

CYCLONIC 9 TO 11, OCCASIONALLY 12 IN SOUTH, BECOMING NORTHWEST FROM

WEST SOON, THEN BACKING SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9 LATER. VIOLENT GUSTS.

CROSS HIGH SEA, LOCALLY VERY HIGH IN SOUTH.

FINISTERRE

IMMINENT AND CONTINUING TO 25/00UTC

SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 12, VEERING NORTHWEST SOON, THEN BACKING

SOUTHWEST 8 LATER. VIOLENT GUSTS. CROSS VERY HIGH SEA.

PORTO

CONTINUING TO 24/06UTC

SOUTHWEST 8 OR 9, VEERING NORTHWEST. SEVERE GUSTS. HIGH SEA.

GIBRALTAR STRAIT

CONTINUING TO 24/12UTC

WESTERLY 8. SEVERE GUSTS.=

[nick sussex]

Thanks Nick F and also everyone for contributing on this thread. I might just stay up until the power goes or I become too nervous and end up in the basement with a bottle of brandy!

[Zenarcher]

20ft to 30ft swell forecasted for Biscay http://charts.metcentral.com/nww3/fc440397...10ed3185/21.png

Force 11 to 12 http://charts.metcentral.com/gfs/17c107988...a3c851ab/18.png

Low 972mb http://charts.metcentral.com/gfs/3473b56ba...15fef354/15.png

[toggerob]

Its not so much the deepness of the Low thats the cause of the concern but the tightness of the isobars as it crosses Eastwards across the French/Spanish border. Parts of Corsica tomorrow are also likely to see Coastal flooding aswell from a Meditteranean swell being kicked up from this Low.

[maidstone weather]

"Potentially the storm of the decade" branded by Peter Gibbs

Looks pretty bad.

Edited January 23, 2009 by maidstone weather