Bay Of Biscay

[J10]

Yes thats where I read it and I'm beginning to wish I hadnt! a storm I can just about cope with , but thats nearly sent me over the edge! any tips on what to do with a tornado! Good grief I feel like I'm living in Florida! Meteo France have a red warning but no mention of the T word so hopefully this won't be an issue.

http://www.vigimeteo.com/vigilance/Accueilhtml.html

This is off a link from www.meteociel.com, hopefully you will not be too badly effected from this storm.

Is it usual for lows to track so far south.

[Nick F]

Some recent satellite images of the low:

2300 meteocentre plot:

[cj114]

At least you have a basement Nick.

Candles and blankets at the ready, a battery run radio too, and all will be well.

I know your part of the world quite well, and will keep my fingers crossed for you.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I would echo very much what others have said. Take great care, and hope you manage to somehow miss the worst of the wind.

In case you do lose power, do you know anyone out of the storm area who could record your programme for you!??

[nick sussex]

At least you have a basement Nick.

Candles and blankets at the ready, a battery run radio too, and all will be well.

I know your part of the world quite well, and will keep my fingers crossed for you.

Unfortunately its one of those semi basement things, built into the hillside, half basement but still with windows very typical of Bearnaise style houses down here. Thanks for the support though, hopefully after the inevitable power cuts I'll be back on to share my experiences, I'm still hoping it won't be as bad as forecast and the satellite dish will remain intact so I can watch the tennis! In relation to Tamaras post its so typical of me the sports obsessed couch potato to be worried about missing the tennis! also I have a feeble joke for everyone and something my friends call me, what do you call someone obsessed with the internet and stuck infront of it for hours? a mouse potato!

Edited January 24, 2009 by nick sussex

[mountain shadow]

Nick,

Phone the BBC, you could be their on the spot reporter in the morning.

Seriously, it does look like a violent storm, keep safe and keep us updated.

Don't worry about Andy Murray, straight sets victory, nae bother.

Edited January 24, 2009 by mountain shadow

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Unfortunately its one of those semi basement things, built into the hillside, half basement but still with windows very typical of Bearnaise style houses down here. Thanks for the support though, hopefully after the inevitable power cuts I'll be back on to share my experiences, I'm still hoping it won't be as bad as forecast and the satellite dish will remain intact so I can watch the tennis!

I haven't been to south west france for a fair few years now (have been twice to the Pyrenees area - including fairly near where you are) and from what I remember it is truly beautiful!

I also went on Les Landes sandy coastline, and will always remember the huge waves on the beach I visited. Heaven knows what the surf will be like down there later!

Yay - Andy M rocks!

Edited January 24, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Phil UK]

Is it usual for lows to track so far south.

I had that same thought, JackOne. If there was a strong Scandi HP in or around the North Sea then possible (Has happened before when a front encroaching the SW of the UK was pushed back due to the stronger cold air) but in a strong current jetstream. Mmm!

Phil.

[Nick F]

I do remember in Biarritz visiting that some of the hotels on the seafront have little beach below them - just some rocks, be interesting having a room with a seaview in one of them!! Be a shame if vast tracks of the Landes pines get flattened, I remember going to Paris not long after the Dec 1999 Great Storm and seeing the many felled trees in the forests outside the city - a very depressing sight to behold. Just hope the strongest winds move through quickly - this low seems to move through quickly anyway on its track to Nern Italy tomorrow, by which time it will have filled somewhat.

[davehsug]

I had that same thought, JackOne. If there was a strong Scandi HP in or around the North Sea then possible (Has happened before when a front encroaching the SW of the UK was pushed back due to the stronger cold air) but in a strong current jetstream. Mmm!

Phil.

With the jet stream so far South at the mo, I'm constantly surprised by how far North the lows are staying. I would have expected them to be tracking further South, closer to the jet. Instead, apart from tomight, they stay limpet like close to the UK

[Phil UK]

Simply put, Daveshug...

It's all gone mad!!

An interesting Winter so far. The potential for another cold snap by this time next week. Can't wait for February.

Phil. (The diversity of the British weather never ceases to amaze me. )

[Nick F]

With the jet stream so far South at the mo, I'm constantly surprised by how far North the lows are staying. I would have expected them to be tracking further South, closer to the jet. Instead, apart from tomight, they stay limpet like close to the UK

Well, the large low south of Iceland is an old, mature low which has long been abandoned by the jet and is just there wallowing because there is an upper low/cold pool circulation above it driving the circulation at the surface. The Biscay Low developed as a shortwave under the strong jet and has deepened in the left exit (now maturing and slowly filling). Another shortwave has developed upstream over the Atlantic under the jet stream - and will swing in towards Ireland on Sunday to affect the UK - fortunately Sunday's low doesn't look to deepen drastically like the Biscay low - as the developmental left exit of the jet dives SE away from the UK towards Iberia. The deepest lows always tend to develop from shortwaves that form under the jet and move into the left exit of the jet, the low NW of the UK currently is far away from the jet's influence.

Nothing mad about it, just common meteorology. Lows aren't always near the jet, though often they may have started off life under the jet before being abondoned.

[Phil UK]

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What he said.

I'm off to bed. Good luck and again I'll repeat... Stay Safe Nick not in Sussex. If you could give us a report after riding this one out then that would be great.

Phil.

Edited January 24, 2009 by Phil UK

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I do remember in Biarritz visiting that some of the hotels on the seafront have little beach below them - just some rocks, be interesting having a room with a seaview in one of them!! Be a shame if vast tracks of the Landes pines get flattened, I remember going to Paris not long after the Dec 1999 Great Storm and seeing the many felled trees in the forests outside the city - a very depressing sight to behold. Just hope the strongest winds move through quickly - this low seems to move through quickly anyway on its track to Nern Italy tomorrow, by which time it will have filled somewhat.

lol! Nick - the danger hunter strikes again Wistful of something to match/beat sheltering in a car from a tornadic supercell I suppose!? I guess that experience would take some beating though.

Nick S - at least you have had some reassurance about tornados later on . The closest I have come to one was the Supercell storm which struck on 15 July 07. Even though the tornado was relatively weak and passed a mile or so to the east of me - the storm itself was really quite scary, sudden complete darkness - with big hail and a huge damaging squall (my garden patio lean to and a low wall were flattened) all led by an amazing shelf cloud, and some other incredible cloud structures - that visibly seemed to boil as it approached. Although I guess to a storm chaser it might have seemed a light shower!

Sorry going O/T a bit there! But extreme weather you don't forget.

[Nick F]

lol! Nick - the danger hunter strikes again Wistful of something to match/beat sheltering in a car from a tornadic supercell I suppose!? I guess that experience would take some beating though.

Don't think I'd ever beat the close brush with a Nebraska tornado last May Tamara, and I don't honestly think me and Paul S would want to relive that experience considering the danger we were put in. I would love to watch the sea pounding against the seashore at Biarritz later this morning when the strong winds arrive - but perhaps only from a safe vantage point, and being next to a window by the sea would perhaps not be a good idea!

[Roger J Smith]

Latest radar suggests some modest convection near Bordeaux, there are now two cold fronts developing ahead of the westerly wind max, one is ashore now near Bordeaux running southwest towards Bilbao, and the other one is still out in the Atlantic following it by about 50 miles. Would expect these to keep developing gradually but still convinced that the tornadic wind threat is more likely inland and well north of Nick's location, possibly somewhere near Bergerac could see this happening later. (I've actually been there too, lovely town in June).

I was looking for that ship again, but so far no report. There's a 56 knot wind from the north behind the low centre, the buoys aren't updating, and no ships are in the danger zone (understandably). That earlier report made me quite concerned, any size of vessel could run into trouble at that wind speed and the sudden change in sea state. But I wondered, are there any ferries from Ireland or the UK to northern Spain? Because if it was heading that way, it could be in real trouble. It's more likely a container ship heading for or leaving a port in northern Spain or southwest France, in which case it should report again this hour from either 9 or 7 W, I would expect.

Well, I'll go back and have another look for it.

[nick sussex]

Don't think I'd ever beat the close brush with a Nebraska tornado last May Tamara, and I don't honestly think me and Paul S would want to relive that experience considering the danger we were put in. I would love to watch the sea pounding against the seashore at Biarritz later this morning when the strong winds arrive - but perhaps only from a safe vantage point, and being next to a window by the sea would perhaps not be a good idea!

You're a braver man than me Nick F, I don't like wind or lightning, the latter might look amazing but given some of the huge storms we get here in the summer and the subsequent power cuts I've gone right off them. Was just looking at the observations page on meteociel and nw France is now reporting some intense precip with rain turning to snow, also some very strong winds now being reported in northern Spain, have you tried this page its good as people report in their observations aswell as I think official sites.

http://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/temps-reel.php

In relation to Rogers question, there is a service from Plymouth to Santander in Spain but can't imagine they wouldn't have cancelled this. Also I wonder whether a fohn effect ahead of the low could provide even more energy for convection, some very high temps given the time of year being reported over northern spain and now the coastal areas around the Spanish/French border.

Edited January 24, 2009 by nick sussex

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I would really enjoy a storm chase if I could take the time out to do it (and save up!) I have a friend who is thinking of going on one with her other half and some chasers she knows. Maybe I could get a loan!?

Anyway, time to call in. Stay safe nick and hope to hear of you unscathed afterwards!

[nick sussex]

I would really enjoy a storm chase if I could take the time out to do it (and save up!) I have a friend who is thinking of going on one with her other half and some chasers she knows. Maybe I could get a loan!?

Anyway, time to call in. Stay safe nick and hope to hear of you unscathed afterwards!

Thanks Tamara

Depending when we get power after the inevitable blackout I'll be back on here.

[toggerob]

133mph winds slamming into the Northern tip of Spain currently.

[Nick F]

Euclid lightning network picking up sferics in the BoB over last 2-3 hours associated with rain band(s) along cold front marching east towards SW France/Pyrenees, so could be a squall line development.

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

Certainly the conditions are ideal for a squall line - with violent convective gusts and possibility of tornadic disturbances towards the coasts possible as the front passes.

[nick sussex]

Euclid lightning network picking up sferics in the BoB over last 2-3 hours associated with rain band(s) along cold front marching east towards SW France/Pyrenees, so could be a squall line development.

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

Certainly the conditions are ideal for a squall line - with violent convective gusts and possibility of tornadic disturbances towards the coasts possible as the front passes.

Thanks Nick F for all your updates. At least the low is moving through quickly, all I can do is just hope that I'm lucky here and that everyone down here has taken the warnings on board.

[Nick F]

Going to have to hit the pillow Nick, do take care - I guess you'll sleep uneasy tonight if at all - it looks like strongest winds will be about 3-4 hrs away. All the best.

[Roger J Smith]

Can you see lightning to your north? Radar looks like thunderstorms are developing about 30 miles north of you and further northeast. Strongest winds should hit the coast soon. Second front is almost on the coast now. That ship report never showed up.

[nick sussex]

Going to have to hit the pillow Nick, do take care - I guess you'll sleep uneasy tonight if at all - it looks like strongest winds will be about 3-4 hrs away. All the best.

Thanks again Nick F I probably won't sleep much if at all but hope to be on here sometime tomorrow evening if we have power!

Can you see lightning to your north? Radar looks like thunderstorms are developing about 30 miles north of you and further northeast. Strongest winds should hit the coast soon. Second front is almost on the coast now. That ship report never showed up.

Nothing as yet Roger, the precip seems to tracking more ne more towards Bordeaux and just skirting with the Basque Coast, the winds are just beginning to pick up now but nothing major yet.