Snow on Sunday - Ulster, Leinster, Connaught

[The watcher]

Whats everyones take on this, do you think it will suffice, any snow?

My take:

The uppers have got lower as we have approached and I would not be surprised if even lower uppers come off. Snow is a BIG potential with the Irish Sea Streamer and Lake effect in Easterlies, especially with -8 or below uppers.

[The Eagle]

Yeah absolutely. Meath and South of that would do very well out of this and right along the coast from Antrim to Wexford all at big risk. Inland too and even Donegal/Derry if the wind goes Northeasterly enough. Its a setup us Dubs love but it is difficult to pin where exactly the snow will come on shore until much closer the time. The -10 uppers would gaurantee snow at all levels even if you live on the beach. It has almost a sense of those classic setups I remember as a kid with bucketloads of snow.........almost, but not quite. The cold pool is fine for snow as it stands but it's a pitty we probrably won't get the -15 isotherm overhead as in previously good easterlies. (im still hopeful as you say the cold pool has been getting colder gradually over previous runs) Still, beggers can't be choosers, and for the moment im delighted. Im not an IMBY - I hope everywhere does well and I think most will see some snow should it come off - amounts could vary alot though. Coastal places in the East seem best.

Im reluctant to go into detail on it for now until closer the time. It's not nailed just yet. Though I must admit just smidgeon of excitment brewing at the possibilities :lol:

[The Eagle]

UKMO Monday

Tuesday :lol:

Problems for the East Coast there I reckon especially Dublin, Meath, Wicklow and Wexford. And not only the East Coast. Snow pretty much anywhere on those charts - maybe even something more prolonged.

Still 120hrs out but looking good.

[The watcher]

Yes Eagle, quite remarkable risk now I'd think.....not only South East Ireland but the Whole Eastern seaboard of Ireland (North and South) it's exactly like the setup we had in January last year. 120hrs but I don't think it will differ much from this give or take a degree or two in the uppers. I would not be surprised to see the uppers actually be -12 in this scenario becuase the upper air is transferring very quicklyand isn't getting much time to modify.

[The Eagle]

The crucial thing is that we don't lose the cold air after the initial Easterly - the UKMO appears to maybe leave it hanging around and also superb prospects beyond that just by looking at that chart. Take your pick of cold snowy scenarios?

Im keeping my feet firmly grounded for the time being. If it gets to Saturday I would be delighted. Now it's just speculation but super charts. We have not seen a potential Easterly this cold or this near for 10 years or more id say.

BTW last winter that snow event occured in upper temps at just -5 hpa

[sundog]

Well it must be said that things are looking very good atm.If those charts still look as good at the weekend it will be certainly time to get excited,but until then i will have my fingers crossed that they dont change much.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

looking very good for the east now

if at this time on friday we have the same charts,i will get the shovel ready and the sledge :lol:

SP

[sundog]

looking very good for the east now

if at this time on friday we have the same charts,i will get the shovel ready and the sledge :lol:

SP

Or a snowplough,snowplough

[The watcher]

Yes, lookng brilliant now, and the best bit, the High cannot sink any further South than it already is so it can only go North between now and Sunday meaning it can only get colder for us in any HP movement. Can't wait to see tommorows outputs. Off to bed, see ya's all later.

[The Eagle]

Excellent stuff this morning. UKMO, ECM, GFS all superb.

Sunday night onward.

[The watcher]

The latest GFS run puts the whole of Ireland under -5uppers and less for the whole of the Run. Although there is criticism of the Iberia LP from Southern England folk, this new output increases our chances even more because of the ESE tilt in the HP which gives a longer sea track for the cold uppers thus inducing longer and bigger convective showers.

As I said yesterday the HP could only be shifted North, the latest run can either shift it further North or back South again to a maximum of where it has been for the last 2 days. What we want to see is the LP to the South stay where it is at the moment and then after the cold pool drift into the med which is of great possibility because the jet to its South will pull it there.

So far so good, lets just hope the LP does not lose heights as it is or the HP will be pushed further North and it will become more SE/SSE flow.

3 things we wish to see (in regards to the LP):

1: The LP remain where it is and keep its depth

2: The LP receed East and become deeper.

3: The LP move (slightly) West and lose depth.

Any of these 3 in subsequent model runs keeps us in the firing line.

[The Eagle]

We could survive further shifts North, indeed maybe even more beneficial. But I think things are just about right. I do expect slightly milder conditions for Wednesday though which will hopefully be temporary. Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday have bags of potential.

[The watcher]

12z looking fantastic still although not as good as the 06z did for us. Snow, Snow, SNOW....currently 80% Sunday and 100% Monday for my location via Netweather Indications and better still, no sign of a return to any uppers above-5c through most/the whole run AGAIN. Things are tantalizingly close now,we are almost set for a HUGE Ireland snow event.

[The Eagle]

Hope so! UKMO is a bit meh from Tuesday - Wednesday could bring snow to Ireland too but we would need the upper temps really.

[sundog]

well it looks like the cold will make its presence felt on Sunday,once the current front gets the hell out of the way and is pushed back out into the Atlantic. Sunday night i imagine should see some eastern coastal counties getting a dusting (maybe more then a dusting in some areas) as snow showers start to affect these areas. More of the same on Monday with the snow showers getting more inland. Perhaps prolonged snow especially in the East on Tuesday? Well thats what i make of whats giong to happen during the next few days,although FI probably starts at Monday.

[The Eagle]

It's nailed now that a snow event is about to occur especially but not exclusively in Eastern parts.

Sunday night will see increasingly frequent and progressively heavier snow showers effecting the East coast and, later, toward the midlands. Monday will then see frequent heavy and prolonged snow showers for the East, Midlands and South and also Eastern districts of the North particularly at risk of possibly significant accumulation. A bitter day. Temperatures 0 - 2C at the very best. Monday night - showers continue in the East - becoming more confined here with again the possibility of further accumulation esp high ground. Tuesday see a more active system approach from the East with more prolonged sleet and snow giving further accumulations however during Tuesday night things get more marginal and any snow should turn to sleet or rain on coasts, at least for a time. Further on then that, given the uncertainty, is not really worth going into at this stage - suffice to say an exciting period starts on Sunday.

[sundog]

The latest gfs run looks great for Ireland,the lp never gets too far west and we are mostly kept in the cold air,then a northerly blast later in the week. Its only one run and we would need a bit of luck,but i can dream atm

[The Eagle]

In the East, in my own location indeed, im expecting 5cm maybe at a minimum. Some inland areas will get showers filtering through but I think Tuesday is the real chance for the midlands.

[kippure]

Nice to see you,s are getting snow. Im sick of the stuff here, Theres to much and its too cold. Winter aint over here for a couple of months yet.....

[kippure]

Did anyone go up to the top of kippure mountain, sallys gap , military road etc and get photos of all this snow?

[The Eagle]

There might be pics on Boards. Alot of snow in Wicklow I know that.

Right think I will change this thread to reflect Sunday's snow risk.

[The watcher]

Sundays risk is tight, Meto and BBC going for light rain turning heavier overnight and falling as Snow in places. Its a very tight call to make, some expect the precipitation to be mainly light, others expect it to be heavy. Also there is a mild sector to keep an eye on, although recent model runs indicate this to be receeding Southwards in new output thus not impacting on our precipitation. I'd give it a 60% risk of disruptive snowfall Sunday Night into Monday morning, this is why Meto have not released warnings or advisories yet, they only seem to release advisorys when confident (ie 70% +), or indeed as a Nowcast.

[kippure]

Nice to see snow in dublin and wicklow. if i was there i,d be on kippure taken photos with sundog.....its just bad timing.

[Baltic Regions]

BBC weather was jinting at this being a fairly beefy event on Sunday for Ulster.

I think we could see some serious disruption here. What would help would be if the folk who are at risk of disruption figure it our before they find themselves stuck in the middle of it. Either leave earlier or later for work but plan ahead.

[The Eagle]

GFS is showing some serious stuff across Leinster and East Munster on Monday night. Tomorrow is a snow to rain thing for most lasting longest in Northern Parts.