Snow Watch: London, Ea & Se England

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Apart from the usual orange level 'be prepared' alert for the area from the MetO = snow

There's this at the end: "During Tuesday, snow is likely to turn to rain from the east, except over higher ground."

My location is 110 metres asl extreme west of Suffolk (about 60 miles inland from coast).

Does 110m count as higher ground? Clutching at straws, I know, but I can hope

Nope, don't think 110 Metres will calss as high ground, I'm 60 miles North of you but slightly lower 45 Metres, so the distance North will almost certainly not help. If the triple point is 50 miles east, we'll be under a LOT of snow, otherwise we'll get something to start with, but it may not last

[sarah7meme]

there was a guy posting on here earlier about his friend who grits roads - he said he was seeing him at 7pm and would update after - did i miss the update because i cannot see one?

You're North Downs

thanks MW - I realised that and editted to save myself looking too silly haha

but thanks !

are you hopeful for this event? more hopeful than the one a week or so ago?

[LLWA]

Right ladies and gents just had my friend around and he says by the looks off things we could see more than he said last night last night he said 8cms easy to 14cms now he had a meeting/breifing at 6:45pm this evening and now he says it looks like we may get alot more snow than he said last night 12cms to 22cms with a thames streamer in place by the looks off things i then showed him the n-w site. And he was amazed how many snow fans there are in london and england he could not belive it. I then told him what can we expect mid week onwards he then said everyone at the depot is talking about this being the starter before the mains so to speak but confidence is about 30% for that but could very well be intresting. Good times ahead for us i feel. Im getting a bit worried tbh about electric being out as well as how the oap"s are going to cope with this. Really worried.

[TEITS]

After recieving a few PMs there still seems so uncertaintiy about what will actually happen. So based on the models and even more importantly my memories of the 80's I shall hopefully be able to explain.

What I am seeing from the models is really classic old skool E,lys that I remember back in the 80's.

During tomorrow afternoon the general trend is towards increasing cloud which may actually bring light snow showers although at this stage nothing significant. As we move into the evening/overnight period the frequency and intensity of these showers will increase as the contrast between the upper temps and the warmer N sea generates some deep convection. This will especially be noticeable if you use the Met O radar because in recent years we have watched snow showers in the form of blue echos whereas tomorrow night im expecting clusters of yellows/greens. Now obviously detail is difficult because to be honest everyone in E Anglia/SE has a great chance of seeing snowfall but whilst some might only see 2cm others may see 15-20cm. At the moment the models are suggesting a streamer may develop into the SE which will push the heavy snow showers into London. If your wondering what a streamer is the simple answer is an endless stream of heavy snow showers which just goes on and on. You may think 20cm is OTT but remember these clusters of snow showers can deliver 5cm for example of lying snow just from one shower. So if your lucky enough to be under one of these streamers you can see how easy it is to obtain a depth of 20cm.

During Monday morning the snow showers will continue adding to existing depths. Now what may happen on monday afternoon is we have a shortlived relief from these showers as a spell of heavy snow moves up from France. However whether this turns to rain/sleet is still uncertain but either way travel will be very difficult during tomorrow evening as this spell fo snow moves N adding to the current lying snow.

[Snowy Bob]

I'm very hopeful that we will get something from this event, maybe not much, but frankly it does not need to be much to cause absolute chaos down here!

[maidstone weather]

there was a guy posting on here earlier about his friend who grits roads - he said he was seeing him at 7pm and would update after - did i miss the update because i cannot see one?

thanks MW - I realised that and editted to save myself looking too silly haha

but thanks !

are you hopeful for this event? more hopeful than the one a week or so ago?

i must've missed that one unless you meant the 5th Jan?

Yep, very hopeful here

[East Herts Snow]

Based on the blend of all 4 models toinght- GFS, UKMET, ECM & NMM model -

I would have the hotspot for best snow somewhere like-

the south Downs- Banstead- that sort of Area-

PPN Rates through the convective stuff 1mm per 2 hours average- across 12 hours is around 6cms-

PPN rates through the band are tops-4mm p/hour for 4 - 6hours averaging 2mm per hour- = 12mm = 12CMs

Aggregate ~ 15-20 cms-

Thats the sweet spot-

subject to eastward & westward correction-

Steve

I think either the Chilterns Hills in Buckinghamshire/Bedfordshire (North West of London), or the East Anglian Heights (East extension of Chilterns) in North Hertfordshire (North of London) could well see the highest snowfall.

The splitting of the Occluded front is currently being shown on the fax charts around these elevated areas.

[sarah7meme]

Right ladies and gents just had my friend around and he says by the looks off things we could see more than he said last night last night he said 8cms easy to 14cms now he had a meeting/breifing at 6:45pm this evening and now he says it looks like we may get alot more snow than he said last night 12cms to 22cms with a thames streamer in place by the looks off things i then showed him the n-w site. And he was amazed how many snow fans there are in london and england he could not belive it. I then told him what can we expect mid week onwards he then said everyone at the depot is talking about this being the starter before the mains so to speak but confidence is about 30% for that but could very well be intresting. Good times ahead for us i feel. Im getting a bit worried tbh about electric being out as well as how the oap"s are going to cope with this. Really worried.

haha you must be telepathic! thank you for updating

[BarnetBlizzard]

After recieving a few PMs there still seems so uncertaintiy about what will actually happen. So based on the models and even more importantly my memories of the 80's I shall hopefully be able to explain.

What I am seeing from the models is really classic old skool E,lys that I remember back in the 80's.

During tomorrow afternoon the general trend is towards increasing cloud which may actually bring light snow showers although at this stage nothing significant. As we move into the evening/overnight period the frequency and intensity of these showers will increase as the contrast between the upper temps and the warmer N sea generates some deep convection. This will especially be noticeable if you use the Met O radar because in recent years we have watched snow showers in the form of blue echos whereas tomorrow night im expecting clusters of yellows/greens. Now obviously detail is difficult because to be honest everyone in E Anglia/SE has a great chance of seeing snowfall but whilst some might only see 2cm others may see 15-20cm. At the moment the models are suggesting a streamer may develop into the SE which will push the heavy snow showers into London. If your wondering what a streamer is the simple answer is an endless stream of heavy snow showers which just goes on and on. You may think 20cm is OTT but remember these clusters of snow showers can deliver 5cm for example of lying snow just from one shower. So if your lucky enough to be under one of these streamers you can see how easy it is to obtain a depth of 20cm.

During Monday morning the snow showers will continue adding to existing depths. Now what may happen on monday afternoon is we have a shortlived relief from these showers as a spell of heavy snow moves up from France. However whether this turns to rain/sleet is still uncertain but either way travel will be very difficult during tomorrow evening as this spell fo snow moves N adding to the current lying snow.

Hey, great post, do you think i will be affected by the thames streamer or am i too far north?

[HighPressure]

Based on the blend of all 4 models toinght- GFS, UKMET, ECM & NMM model -

I would have the hotspot for best snow somewhere like-

the south Downs- Banstead- that sort of Area-

PPN Rates through the convective stuff 1mm per 2 hours average- across 12 hours is around 6cms-

PPN rates through the band are tops-4mm p/hour for 4 - 6hours averaging 2mm per hour- = 12mm = 12CMs

Aggregate ~ 15-20 cms-

Thats the sweet spot-

subject to eastward & westward correction-

Steve

That's almost where I am only needs to be about 1000 yards further north to hit me spot on, I let you if I am snowed in

[LLWA]

haha you must be telepathic! thank you for updating

No probs just take care this could get very serious.

[StormChaser]

Looks like my area is looking good work has already said if it gets bad we will have to close! Please god let it snow!

[A Wintry Mix]

Evening all,with a streamer would it effect the Thanet area? i hope it can but i have a feeling we wont be lucky, so im keeping every thing crossed for NEsterly later!

[Southender]

I'll take a Thames Streamer thanks very much. I haven't seen one since the 90's... An amazing sight if it comes off believe me. I will be the first to report such an event, as Im located at the mouth of The Thames. Bring it on!

[sarah7meme]

my husband is having a boys night in with superbowl tomorrow night in the alkham valley near kearsney postcode : ct17 0rq. i am dutied to pick him and his friend - our neighbour - up monday morning at 7-7.30am.

i have suggessted he may need a 'contingency plan' as i am travelling from north downs ct18.

any ideas on the likelihood of travel being unsafe... or maybe safe until a certain point eg 5am... because i could always go gget them then! ... i will be lampost watching anywaY! just pretty rural spots, with main road interlinking.

[TEITS]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

[maidstone weather]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

I'm nicely in the +20cm zone, nice map, thanks

[snow raven]

Hey, great post, do you think i will be affected by the thames streamer or am i too far north?

Don't 100% quote me on this, but I think a Thames streamer usually (in the main) affects NW Kent, SE London, and SW Essex?

[sarah7meme]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

haha damn it, am directly on the black line twixt 10-20/5-10

[A Wintry Mix]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

Your my bestest friend you are

cheers for all the work you do on here and i hope you get what you deserve.

[PompeyFC]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

teits - how does your map go for hants ?

[donna-m]

haha damn it, am directly on the black line twixt 10-20/5-10

yep so am i , but the higher one

Does it change depending on the wind direction ??

[nick sussex]

haha damn it, am directly on the black line twixt 10-20/5-10

If the flow is ene then its definitely likely that it will be a bit hazardous as that would bring some good snow totals to your location. My advice leave him at his mates put a good movie on or go and play in the snow either way take it as a good opportunity to have a bit of peace and quiet and watch whatever tv station you want without the remote control hogger!

[LLWA]

This is my current thinking for Sunday-monday morning.

Thanks dave i am right under that star area and well inside that 10-20cms area i will deffinteley take that although i would say going by my mate 14cms and upwards look very likeley. To all in the south east get plenty off red bulls and pro plus in im doing a 48 hour without sleep shift anyone care to join?

[A Wintry Mix]

Thanks dave i am right under that star area and well inside that 10-20cms area i will deffinteley take that although i would say going by my mate 14cms and upwards look very likeley. To all in the south east get plenty off red bulls and pro plus in im doing a 48 hour without sleep shift anyone care to join?

Count me in! im right on the north east corner so i hope i will see something.