Snow Watch: Wales (cymru) And The South West

[Cymro]

It will make such a nice change to get snow down here; not counting my chickens though, usually amounts to nowt around here.

Quick question - how high is the METO definition of high ground?

I think generally above 300 meters but I don't know .

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I think generally above 300 meters but I don't know .

Not alot of that in the South West then (aside from the higher parts of the Moors)

[jethro]

I think generally above 300 meters but I don't know .

Bugger! I'm only 194m, oh well, I'll be grateful for anything more than a dusting.

[Cymro]

Yes bus snow is forecast for low levels not higher levels only. I don't really know it could be 200 meters but in Wales i wouldn't class that as high. I live at 245m abs. The mountains behind go up to 600meters within walking distance of where i live on the Western flank of the Brecon beacons I class where i live as high but there are higher places.

[mettalfabrik]

yippee, still wont believe till it happens but ,have ittttt

best set up since the early nineties

[Rich_Clements]

I think we're in a really good position to be honest, I'm expecting 3-8cm.

CMON GURT BRISTOL

Pick EE out the Stingerz

We had a few cms at the begining of the month whilst Brizzle had nowt, lets hope it's different this time

6ft would be nice.

[Rlt122]

Jackone -

Really good to see you are still on here, and forecasting/predicting!!

Ross

[Rich_Clements]

Yes bus snow is forecast for low levels not higher levels only. I don't really know it could be 200 meters but in Wales i wouldn't class that as high. I live at 245m abs. The mountains behind go up to 600meters within walking distance of where i live on the Western flank of the Brecon beacons I class where i live as high but there are higher places.

Lets hope you get alot more than this:

Taken at begining of the month

[Cymro]

Lets hope you get alot more than this:

Taken at begining of the month

I had slightly more than that a fornight back had aorund 1-2cm left a nice covering which melted by dinner time though.

[BARRY]

Even the sky has that snowy look to it tonight

[Snowyowl9]

There`s no ppn showing with this cold front coming tomorrow which is abit odd.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/24_30.gif

Cold upper air just coming in at that time.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn242.png

Cold surface air raceing ahead of it.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn247.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2417.png

[J10]

Jackone -

Really good to see you are still on here, and forecasting/predicting!!

Ross

Nice you see you Ross, I haven't seen you on here for a few years.

It used to snow in those days.

However looking quite good for Monday Night into Tuesday, although not a perfect setup, but with cold air in the vicinity and upper air temps remaining cold, still looking on the right side of marginal for most I think, especially as it is a night time event.

Mid term on GFS seems a little disappointing but again a clear synoptic outlier, but the ensembles nearly ll going for the NE feed across the UK much quicker.

[J10]

Looking very promising indeed for SW area according to the UKMO, until at least Midday Tuesday with the area remaining sub 528 dam at all times and the 850hpa profile rmaining at around -6c with precipitation around.

the 528 looks more promising on compared to the last FAX for 12noon Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if tonight's FAX is better, I think it may well be.

GFS operational contuinues to be an outlier for the ongoing NE as well, nearly all runs have the NE flow coming in far quicker.

All in all we want the UKMO to be right over the GFS.

[Moonstar]

There could be snow anywhere by Monday evening, accept Penzance according to the weather online precipitation chart below:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/...550556effea4412

I think the Moors have a good chance of seeing a covering and by the looks of things, it does appear to be turning milder from the SE, instead of the SW when it usually starts to turn milder.

[Cymro]

So all in all things are looking very good at the moment?

[azores92]

tribe where was that pic taken?

[Snowyowl9]

This is certainly going to be the most interesting snow event since late february 2005/06 but certainly looks a different setup to then.

Monday looks very interesting.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-594.GIF?31-18

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

So all in all things are looking very good at the moment?

Things are looking good currently id say but of course theres still time for change. We want the UKMO to be correct really because it keeps us under the colder upper air.

Also the Mountain forecast is interesting for the Brecon Beacons http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mount...ety/brecon.html

Possible drifting snow allong with Blizzard conditions over the summits there.

Jamie

[kaz]

hi just had a quick look at the charts as i have been in bed after doing nights, what is concerning me is.. I really do think everywhere will see snow at first but i do think on tue it is quickly going to turn to rain except for those in elevated areas.. Now i havent had a chance to look at all of the data and im not brill at snow and cold weather as im more into storms ect.. So would love to hear what other peoples thoughts are.. Thanx muchly

lol kaz xx

--------------------

NO DRAMA

JUST GOOD OLD BRITISH WEATHER

[liamcymro]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mount.../snowdonia.html

Snowdonia also looking good - Although was better forecast before the update - To be honest I think there's a bit too much hype for Eastern England as I think from Monday Night onwards from the 'NetWeather Snow Charts' it seems that the Snow will mostly be of rain. Wales looks good and also South Western England also looks good from what I see....

North Wales looks good 6am Monday Morning -

Looking good for Wales here too..

[Nick L]

My journey back on Friday looks fun!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[liamcymro]

My journey back on Friday looks fun!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Yeah, it does look good for next weekend too - hope not too bad due to the fact i'm going to a Brass competition at the Guild Hall in Preston on Sunday!

[J10]

hi just had a quick look at the charts as i have been in bed after doing nights, what is concerning me is.. I really do think everywhere will see snow at first but i do think on tue it is quickly going to turn to rain except for those in elevated areas.. Now i havent had a chance to look at all of the data and im not brill at snow and cold weather as im more into storms ect.. So would love to hear what other peoples thoughts are.. Thanx muchly

lol kaz xx

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If the UKMO is right, then any drift back to rain ad sleet will be certainly in the afternoon at the very earliest, as we are under the colder 850hpa temps and sub 528 dam air at midday, and quite possibly a lot longer. The GFS does bring a light greater chance of this happening, sooner but we are in the best position here in any case.

ECM drifting out now and looking very promising for the NE flow sets in. as shown by the +144 above.

[Snowyowl9]

An unusual situation this is with a low moving like it is.

Fresh/strong NE-lys monday so just want the snow to drift. :lol:

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

[J10]

This is certainly going to be the most interesting snow event since late february 2005/06 but certainly looks a different setup to then.

Monday looks very interesting.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-594.GIF?31-18

In Feb 2007 we had a very short lived snow event which may turn out to be a bit better than this one.

An unusual situation this is with a low moving like it is.

Fresh/strong NE-lys monday so just want the snow to drift. :lol:

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

Tonight's Faxes are a upgrade with us remaining in Sub 528 air at lunchtime and this may linger for a bit longer, very good charts for us.