Snow Watch: Wales (cymru) And The South West

[Nights King]

no surprise there one day before event and west country gets downgraded again!!

We will be lucky to get a mere dusting now!

How long before our warning gets removed altogether?

Edited February 1, 2009 by mullender83

[Welsh_Weather]

What are you all talking about? why would you want the mild sector further west? that would turn any snow to rain. The low pressure is going to be right on top of us, so why would we only get a few flurries from that?

[Nick L]

What are you all talking about? why would you want the mild sector further west? that would turn any snow to rain. The low pressure is going to be right on top of us, so why would we only get a few flurries from that?

For those in the west the mild sector was never a worry. If the mild sector is further east, then the precipitation would go with it. There should be some light snow, but nothing like what the east could be having.

[WINTRY WALES]

For those in the west the mild sector was never a worry. If the mild sector is further east, then the precipitation would go with it. There should be some light snow, but nothing like what the east could be having.

So far on this run it looks like the mild sector has shifted slightly west agian bringing the precipertation back across the welsh borders. Am i correct ?

Hopecasting worked

[CRACKPOT]

So far on this run it looks like the mild sector has shifted slightly west agian bringing the precipertation back across the welsh borders. Am i correct ?

Hopecasting worked

It does seem that the more 'tv' forecasts I see - the more showers that seem to bebedding into S/East Wales - WWales and myself are in the firing line for these - come on over further - still interesting although not totally confident in a showery weather stream though- always hit and miss.

JK

Edited February 1, 2009 by CRACKPOT

[Snowyowl9]

As far as I can nothing changed infact theres already snow grains falling here on a strong bitter east wind -0.9c min -0.5c now.

Unbelevable charts to see a low move so fast from the east and no jet to push it,a bizzare setup.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1a.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm722.gif

This next week looks amazing.

It`s going to be most watched countryfile for years.

Edited February 1, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[noggin]

Models are due out about now, aren't they? Let's hope they are good.....

I've got a horrible feeling that it is going to be taken from us and the Easterners will get it all again. It's just too cruel.

[Nights King]

Very cloudy here over last hour or so with the odd snow grain in air.

I cant see any on radar and wondered whats it like round bristol and somerset at moment anyone?

Or it could just be mendips doing this?

[Marcus_surfer]

Huge downgrade looking at bbc forecast, monday night the heavy snow seems to push northwards and doesnt even make it to wales

[Nick L]

As far as I can nothing changed infact theres already snow grains falling here on a strong bitter east wind -0.9c min -0.5c now.

Unbelevable charts to see a low move so fast from the east and no jet to push it,a bizzare setup.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1a.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm722.gif

This next week looks amazing.

It`s going to be most watched countryfile for years.

I hope its Rob McElwee doing it this week. Haven't seen him for a few days, I think they have kept him locked up to stop him ramping!

[Bristawl Si]

Very cloudy here over last hour or so with the odd snow grain in air.

I cant see any on radar and wondered whats it like round bristol and somerset at moment anyone?

Or it could just be mendips doing this?

Cold, cloudy, but dry here, in north bristol

[WINTRY WALES]

Huge downgrade looking at bbc forecast, monday night the heavy snow seems to push northwards and doesnt even make it to wales

What BBC forecast? There hant been one on yet

[J10]

Looking at the UKMO precipitation charts, whihc the BBC forecast are based on.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/6h.htm

Here is a summary based on what they show.

7am tomorrow light showrs, sub 528 Dam

1pm tomorrow moderate showers, sub 528 Dam

7pm tomorrow moderate showers,/persistent snow sub 528 Dam

1am Tuesday moderate snow for South Wales and SW England, heavier snow for much of Wales

1pm Tuesday lunchtime, a new area of heavy snow for SW Wales and SW England.

At all times with sub 528 air, so the snow is coming this way, maybe not quite as heavy as elsewhere, but with the advantage that it is likely to stay as snow.

Snow amounts 2-4 inches is very possible in places, maybe more in places but some may get less.

Plenty of precipition too on teh GFs and also laragely of snow.

looking forward UKMO/ECM look promising for a N/NE blast to follow although doubts a bouts its length.

[BARRY]

What BBC forecast? There hant been one on yet

that was on breakfast TV

[Nick L]

Looking at the UKMO precipitation charts, whihc the BBC forecast are based on.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/6h.htm

Here is a summary based on what they show.

7am tomorrow light showrs, sub 528 Dam

1pm tomorrow moderate showers, sub 528 Dam

7pm tomorrow moderate showers,/persistent snow sub 528 Dam

1am Tuesday moderate snow for South Wales and SW England, heavier snow for much of Wales

1pm Tuesday lunchtime, a new area of heavy snow for SW Wales and SW England.

At all times with sub 528 air, so the snow is coming this way, maybe not quite as heavy as elsewhere, but with the advantage that it is likely to stay as snow.

Snow amounts 2-4 inches is very possible in places, maybe more in places but some may get less.

Plenty of precipition too on teh GFs and also laragely of snow.

looking forward UKMO/ECM look promising for a N/NE blast to follow although doubts a bouts its length.

The UKMO looks much more promising for the west than the GFS. Just picked out this gem, I shall be right in the green

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U60-594.GIF?01-06

It will be very interesting to see the updated warnings, will the Met Office go with their own model on this?

Edited February 1, 2009 by nick2702

[Marcus_surfer]

Well lets just hope the models are right and keep to their tracks. I have a bad feeling the band of heavier snow forecast for monday night will push Northwestwards and miss us, but we will wait and see. The winds are currently southeasterly, if they veer East/Northeasterly we have a better chance.

[Jayfromcardiff]

This always happens, snow forecasted then it decides to go in a different direction.

[MP-R]

This always happens, snow forecasted then it decides to go in a different direction.

I share your frustration mate. Let's be positive though. Any precipitation we do get at the moment looks set to be as snow rather than slush (sleet + rain). As Marcus says though, all we need is a little change in wind direction and perhaps that will help the ppn move a little more in a westward direction.

[Bristawl Si]

I share your frustration mate. Let's be positive though. Any precipitation we do get at the moment looks set to be as snow rather than slush (sleet + rain). As Marcus says though, all we need is a little change in wind direction and perhaps that will help the ppn move a little more in a westward direction.

Michael, things will be marginal right up to the last minute IMO. Tomorrow night looks our favoured time, but whether we get a dusting or dumping is anyone's guess!

[dr_whosam]

Michael, things will be marginal right up to the last minute IMO. Tomorrow night looks our favoured time, but whether we get a dusting or dumping is anyone's guess!

Guys don't worry the BBC forecasts change like every hour but I am hoping they say yes to us I am really looking forward to this snow event if it happens you will see photos of MY snow in MY garden!!

Fingers Crossed

Sam^^

[Snowyowl9]

Snow grains are slightly more now given a slight sprinkle(snow version of drizzle radar won`t pick this up)

-0.5c

Just looking at tuesday snow is still there and more so to yesterday.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/48_30.gif

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U48-594.GIF?01-06

[J10]

Look at the developing occlusion over the western areas of the front.

FAX chart for Tuesday, look at the LP close to Wales,

Both times the areas over Wales and the SW is in Sub 528 Dam air.

Also plenty of snow forecast on the latest GFS charts(o6Hz)

Next big thing to watch out for the updating of the Severe Weather warning on the Meto.

[noggin]

Very cloudy here over last hour or so with the odd snow grain in air.

I cant see any on radar and wondered whats it like round bristol and somerset at moment anyone?

Or it could just be mendips doing this?

Not a sausage here, just to the NE of Bristol.

[Bristawl Si]

FAX chart for Tuesday, look at the LP close to Wales,

Shame it's not a 100 miles south or so; that would be good for all of us and prolong the snowy spell. I'm a little unconvinced at the mo that we in the West will get much snow.

Just watched the weather on news24 and there's snow for SE england tonite and monday morn, but our part of the chart is a definite downgrade compared to an earlier forecast an hour ago. Then heavier snow for SE tomorrow adfternoon/eve but then moves north. I think it's NOT looking too good for West country and wales IMO. :lol:

Edited February 1, 2009 by Bristle boy

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yet again the BBC latest forecast has changed, now the snow extends into Cardiff! :lol: