Tropical Cyclone Ellie

[Cookie]

Might not be worth starting a thread for this as its going to make landfall, soon.

[J07]

Queensland could be facing another cyclone within days with the weather bureau keeping a close eye on a tropical low in the Coral Sea.

The system is sitting just off the coast of Cairns in far North Queensland. It is adding to the flooding rains that may keep isolated communities cut off for another six weeks.

It has been well over a decade since the state's northwest has received such a drenching of rain.

Last month Mount Isa's main dam was just 17 per cent full but now it is overflowing.

Bridges have been cut, roads are closed and the weather bureau says there is still more rain on the way.

Flood warnings are in place for 12 river systems in North Queensland.

The State Government says it has people on the ground and on stand-by in case the situation worsens.

[Cookie]

not good at all JO7

sat image above

below from weather underground

[Cookie]

A new storm alert is out

Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2009 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELLIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 1 Feb, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ELLIE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Australia

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E)

probability for TS is 60% currently

Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)

probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the updates Cookie, have been in Bristol for the last few days with no internet so apologies for the lack of input from me.

So, Ellie formed yesterday evening. Intensity peaked at 40kts, but Ellie has began to weaken due to moderate easterly shear. The storm is moving southwestwards and landfall has just occured south of Innisfail, Queensland. Some large rainfall totals, as J07 says, is very likely which will cause severe flooding on already saturated ground.

It may not be over for Ellie yet. Steering currents are expected to reverse as the subtropical ridge to the south of Ellie currently steering her is expected to lose dominance which may allow Ellie or her remnants to push back eastwards into the Coral Sea. Therefore, she needs to be closely monitored for re-strengthening/re-generation when/if this occurs.

[Cookie]

I think you're right mate, this system ain't over yet.

looks like we may have another area of disturbance in SIO