Snow Watch: N&w Yorkshire, Northern & Ne England

[PersianPaladin]

I can see from this that the low will 'split'

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?dat...&map=Europe

But i can see from this

http://www.meteox.com/gmap.aspx?soort=loop...on=-1.845703125

That a fair whack of the pnn is within the 'zone' that will form 'our low'. I'd agree that once the isobars close it's a done deal but it looks ,to me, like there is more pnn feeding into the circulation.

EDIT: Still horizontal snow here!

EDIT ,EDIT: If we see the top of the 'plume' turn left between Belg and Holland border then we'll know we've caught it in 'our low'....over the next hour or two....

The precipitation within the periphery of the split wave heading towards the SW is largely convective in nature as the colder uppers gradually move there by tommorow. Different from the frontal system that brought the band of precipitation from northern France (and also merged with a feed from the med) and across the eastern side of Britain. Still some dynamic precip likely to be embedded, however as you say.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The thing that gets me is that Wolsingham isn't even that high up.

Don't think there is much chance of a degree drop in temperature, its risen that much since 7pm, from 1.1º to 2.1º. We had fine snow up until about then with slight new accumulations on the car windscreen etc.

Gods sake its 2.2 now. It is doing it on purpose.

I expected this sort of thing to happen at the coast, but I'm surprised at how far inland the warmth is penetrating. I expected Newton Aycliffe to at least keep sleet or wet snow.

Not to worry though, it looks good for later in the week.

Marsden currently at 3.5C which probably means Cleadon is at around 3C- again about a degree higher than I'd have expected.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Just been out for a walk round the village, every road impassable unless you're in a Land Rover or better, and with some of the drifts even then you'd be struggling in anything less than a tractor. Had eased off to light snow grainy stuff but seems to be getting heavier again with bigger flakes. Also temp seems to have bottomed out, had risen to -0.8C, but back to -0.9C now, so hopefully any danger of sleet (or worse !) now passed for tonight. Some of the wind sculpted snow formations are already pretty impressive, so as I will certainly be working from home tomorrow I'm hoping to get some good pics.

On a more negative note, I think the BBC have made a bit of a fool of themselves with their terrible ramping for tonight's snow - 50 cms ???, ridiculous suggestion to anyone who's had access to today's charts and radar, which I imagine they would have had ???

EDIT: back up to -0.8C, when's this warm sector supposed to recede ?

[busman]

looking good at mo

[Typhoon John]

Rain all the way here, it seems my earlier my assessment was correct. However my uncle who lives in Stanley Crook at 265m asl said he's had 4 inches since he came home from work.

I'm very disappointed, I had more snow than this in 2005 which was followed by another tame easterly that also failed to deliver below 200m.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, I think this easterly is turning out to be a disappointment for Tyne & Wear/Durham. I didn't expect it to be on the scale of February 1991, but I certainly thought it would rival those of November 1993 & February 1994- and at least expected it to beat late December 2005- but clearly not!

[paul tall]

I expected this sort of thing to happen at the coast, but I'm surprised at how far inland the warmth is penetrating. I expected Newton Aycliffe to at least keep sleet or wet snow.

Not to worry though, it looks good for later in the week.

Marsden currently at 3.5C which probably means Cleadon is at around 3C- again about a degree higher than I'd have expected.

There is a stiff easterly wind, thats probably not helping.

[Freezing-Point]

Its now 2.5c here and the rain is getting heavier. Whats going on?

[Stratos Ferric]

Just light rain here and a steady thaw.

What an utter disappointment.

Hard to disagree with those sentiments. Driving no here all evening. 18" drift outside my back door offering a lovely abstract alongside a yard blown all but bare.

And still the main news is full of reporters blathering on about 12" still to come, and a reporter as I write talking about a blizzard and a white out whilst behind her the motorway stretches quite clearly as far as the eye can see.

And now we have Fiona Bruce "we can see it's still snowing there"; reporter "actually it's raining".

This forecast is going t*ts up at the moment. It also looked a bit more marginal than the UKMO were making out, and quantities further north of this system were always over egged (12" of snow needs 1" of rain; we'd rarely get that of a warm front in spring or autumn, let alone midwinter), and, as ever with the system overhead, minor movement against forecast location and alignment make for dramatic changes in outcomes.

[PersianPaladin]

Hard to disagree with those sentiments. Driving no here all evening. 18" drift outside my back door offering a lovely abstract alongside a yard blown all but bare.

And still the main news is full of reporters blathering on about 12" still to come, and a reporter as I write talking about a blizzard and a white out whilst behind her the motorway stretches quite clearly as far as the eye can see.

And now we have Fiona Bruce "we can see it's still snowing there"; reporter "actually it's raining".

This forecast is going t*ts up at the moment. It also looked a bit more marginal than the UKMO were making out, and quantities further north of this system were always over egged (12" of snow needs 1" of rain; we'd rarely get that of a warm front in spring or autumn, let alone midwinter), and, as ever with the system overhead, minor movement against forecast location and alignment make for dramatic changes in outcomes.

Well said.

Was always going to be marginal along the coastal strip however; albeit the milder air has penetrated further inland and those brisk lowlevel winds are not helping. Small margin of error; hard even for the latest models to be of use in reflecting such a seemingly decisive forecast by the METO of "5 to 10cm of snow for low levels".

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is a stiff easterly wind, thats probably not helping.

Very true. I did factor that into consideration when making forecasts for tonight though- I expected temps of about 1-1.5C in your area and 2-2.5C on the coast. As Stratos Ferric points out, the UKMO over-egged the snow event for the east- one of many occasions, perhaps, where the GFS model was the more accurate in the near-term at predicting the effects of the warmer air.

That said the Met Office's forecasts were spot on for the south.

[Stratos Ferric]

Aye, I think this easterly is turning out to be a disappointment for Tyne & Wear/Durham. I didn't expect it to be on the scale of February 1991, but I certainly thought it would rival those of November 1993 & February 1994- and at least expected it to beat late December 2005- but clearly not!

I think this event is going to make a bigger impression on the colective psyche than it warrants; London has been close to the epicentre, and at an hour that makes for day long coverage from the London based media. Certainly an extensive event, but not generally notable for depths W of a line from the Humber to the Portland (or so). Also looks like a bit more of a thaw in the wake than forecast.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

Does it look like the band could still intensify/expand slightly on the back edge of the band or perhaps even stall slightly?

[MACWY]

Take a look at the 930pm meto radar and then compare it with the 900pm

Its gone well YELLOW on met radar.

[skywatcher]

Temp risen very slightly from 0.2 to 0.1 at Osmondthorpe (I've no idea where this is but the website says it's in W Yorks somewhere: these are the best figures I can find). Snowing continually but moderately as it has from about 4pm. Lots to come, but how heavy it will be is the question and the continual but slow temp rise is a worry.

Totally gutted for the rainy NE, where I used to live. We got snow when no-one else got snow. I feel like apologising on behalf of Leeds.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

That said the Met Office's forecasts were spot on for the south.

And where are they based again ? (is it still Bracknell by any chance ???)

[Cloud 10]

Station : B6309 MedomsleyOrganisation : Durham County Council

Time : 02.02.2009 22:00 Europe/London

Air Temperature (1) 0.1 °C

Dew Point Temperature (1) -0.3 °C

Relative Humidity (1) 97 %

Rain State (1) none

Rain Intensity (1) 0.0 mm/h

Wind Speed (1) 5.7 m/s

Wind Direction (1) 65 °

Max Wind Speed (1) 8.2 m/s

Well those are the nearest readings i can find to my location,and i don't like where they are heading.

Still light/moderate snow at the moment though.

[paul tall]

Very true. I did factor that into consideration when making forecasts for tonight though- I expected temps of about 1-1.5C in your area and 2-2.5C on the coast. As Stratos Ferric points out, the UKMO over-egged the snow event for the east- one of many occasions, perhaps, where the GFS model was the more accurate in the near-term at predicting the effects of the warmer air.

That said the Met Office's forecasts were spot on for the south.

There's still plenty of precipitation moving North. Do you think there is any chance that the breeze could drop down and the warming lose its grip, or should I just turn the computer off now?

[MACWY]

Temp risen very slightly from 0.2 to 0.1 at Osmondthorpe (I've no idea where this is but the website says it's in W Yorks somewhere: these are the best figures I can find). Snowing continually but moderately as it has from about 4pm. Lots to come, but how heavy it will be is the question and the continual but slow temp rise is a worry.

Totally gutted for the rainy NE, where I used to live. We got snow when no-one else got snow. I feel like apologising on behalf of Leeds.

Surely its dropped, don't you mean?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not any more- they moved over to Exeter around 2003 or 2004, but that's still in the south anyway.

There's still plenty of precipitation moving North. Do you think there is any chance that the breeze could drop down and the warming lose its grip, or should I just turn the computer off now?

I suggest it probably isn't worth it. It would take a big turnaround to cause rain to turn to settling snow now, especially with the dewpoints up high as well as the air temps.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Sorry to keep harping on about this, it seems churlish since there is tons of snow outside and it's still falling (all be it lightly), but even on the Meto website headline is 'Blizzards for Pennines', and forecast shows the 'two flake' snow symbol over most of W. Yorkshire, yet flick the page to 'Current Observations' and it shows light snow/sleet - and the 'Extreme event' red weather warning is still up - have they just gone to bed ?

[0000]

Oh dear,,,,,sleet now

[eddie]

Raining here now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temp risen very slightly from 0.2 to 0.1 at Osmondthorpe (I've no idea where this is but the website says it's in W Yorks somewhere: these are the best figures I can find). Snowing continually but moderately as it has from about 4pm. Lots to come, but how heavy it will be is the question and the continual but slow temp rise is a worry.

Totally gutted for the rainy NE, where I used to live. We got snow when no-one else got snow. I feel like apologising on behalf of Leeds.

The NE got a fair amount of snow in early December- some dustings from snow showers on the 1st-3rd then a good couple of inches on the 4th.

Leeds has always done particularly well from easterlies, as far as I remember. It's exposed enough to catch most of the showers, but far inland enough to miss the warming effects of the sea. When I was at university there, quite often we'd have snow showers from an easterly while the Tyneside coast was having rain.

[0000]

??? Paul Mooney is persisting with heavy snow for the NE tonight.....what's going on?