The Worst Wrong Forecast

[Timmytour]

I did the reverse of this a few weeks ago here

So when did a forecast really let you down? we know it often happens but what on really sticks in your mind?

I'm going for today and the big snow "main event" coming up from France.

I should not have anything to complain about. After all, before it's supposed arrival, we were already unexpectedly 6-7 inches to the good from the showers forecast. I thought I was going to be too far north of those showers and the Thames Streamer to get much, but it was magical. so....like a banker getting blinded by the profits he was making out of selling debt... I got over confident. I thought this was the moment I'm dreamt of as a kid playing with the sugar bowl where one dump of snow would be quickly followed by another. The forecast was "snow showers giving way to heavy snow" !!!! Well the showers had given me so much...the heavy snow was going to be awesome! What a pity my wife and kids weren't here to enjoy it with me...what a pity their flight from Ireland was cancelled and we couldn't get another one till wednesday....never mind there'd still be plenty of snow left when they finally got back!

Instead...what happened was a "Main Event" so poor that I don't imagine it would have amounted to a covering of snow without the previous showers, before it turned to rain. Instead of heightening what was already there, it degraded it. One that instead of enhancing the snow, turned magic into slush!

Yes....it's a wrong 'un that's very fresh in the mind.....but I think it will stick with me for a long long time!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12th march 2006, just snizzle all day, before my netweather and model days though otherwise i may not have expected decent snow, didnt know much at all then

[rodthrutheblock]

Timmytour I feel your pain. I feel the same and agree with the 'major event' no-show. And now? Wet and the constant dripping of melting snow outside. It would have been nice to have had this last a couple of days. To walk crisp, moonlit snow fields at night. We had great snow - everything so promising and now it melts and my hopes with it.........

[reef]

The whole event was a big disappointment here! The showers widely predicted to give 5-10cm of snow gave just 0.5cm last night, which then proceeded to melt all day before being finished off once and for all by the heavy rain we have now.

Looking outside all of what we had has melted and we're left with an overcast, cold and wet night which you could be forgiven for mistaking as a wet and miserable night during any Atlantic-based spell of weather.

The forecast for rain tonight was always going to be right, but the regular heavy showers predicted by the models and later the BBC just never materialised.

[Stratos Ferric]

Today's forecast has been pretty poor, and I routinely defend against any such posts, so let me clarify. I was always rather doubtful, as evidenced in various postings over the past 2-3 days, as to the quantity of rain forecast, and the marginality at the back of the front was fairly widely touted, and to be expected from a system coming in with the trajectory of today's. Finally, precise whereabouts when a system is overhead can make a huge difference to who gets what, and how much. All fair enough: what has been staggering today is the length of time for which the UKMO has carried on about the prospect for a foot of snow across the Pennines; it was never likely to be this much, but to continue on long after the early echo traces showed precipitation to be widespread but very light IS rather poor. Forecasts can be hard; nowcasts really require quite some effort to get wrong.

The whole event was a big disappointment here! The showers widely predicted to give 5-10cm of snow gave just 0.5cm last night, which then proceeded to melt all day before being finished off once and for all by the heavy rain we have now.

Looking outside all of what we had has melted and we're left with an overcast, cold and wet night which you could be forgiven for mistaking as a wet and miserable night during any Atlantic-based spell of weather.

The forecast for rain tonight was always going to be right, but the regular heavy showers predicted by the models and later the BBC just never materialised.

Hedon should consider twinning with Abingdon, the spiritual home of the unit of disappointment.

[paul tall]

Today's forecast has been pretty poor, and I routinely defend against any such posts, so let me clarify. I was always rather doubtful, as evidenced in various postings over the past 2-3 days, as to the quantity of rain forecast, and the marginality at the back of the front was fairly widely touted, and to be expected from a system coming in with the trajectory of today's. Finally, precise whereabouts when a system is overhead can make a huge difference to who gets what, and how much. All fair enough: what has been staggering today is the length of time for which the UKMO has carried on about the prospect for a foot of snow across the Pennines; it was never likely to be this much, but to continue on long after the early echo traces showed precipitation to be widespread but very light IS rather poor. Forecasts can be hard; nowcasts really require quite some effort to get wrong.

Hedon should consider twinning with Abingdon, the spiritual home of the unit of disappointment.

An alternative name for units of disappointment could be "Aycliffes"

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

what has been staggering today is the length of time for which the UKMO has carried on about the prospect for a foot of snow across the Pennines; it was never likely to be this much, but to continue on long after the early echo traces showed precipitation to be widespread but very light IS rather poor. Forecasts can be hard; nowcasts really require quite some effort to get wrong.

Agree 100%, to still be persisting with this forecast for overnight snow, when a quick look at the radar will tell you it isn't going to happen, just seems lazy to me

[davehsug]

Today's forecast has been pretty poor, and I routinely defend against any such posts, so let me clarify. I was always rather doubtful, as evidenced in various postings over the past 2-3 days, as to the quantity of rain forecast, and the marginality at the back of the front was fairly widely touted, and to be expected from a system coming in with the trajectory of today's. Finally, precise whereabouts when a system is overhead can make a huge difference to who gets what, and how much. All fair enough: what has been staggering today is the length of time for which the UKMO has carried on about the prospect for a foot of snow across the Pennines; it was never likely to be this much, but to continue on long after the early echo traces showed precipitation to be widespread but very light IS rather poor. Forecasts can be hard; nowcasts really require quite some effort to get wrong.

Hedon should consider twinning with Abingdon, the spiritual home of the unit of disappointment.

I do agree. From late afternoon onwards anyone with access to radar could see that this was not going to happen. For the BBC & the METO to continue to allow such plainly inaccurate forecasts to be made around teatime was poor. I wonder if there had been a proper meteorologist doing the BBC1 evening forecast, rather than a presenter, they might have put a more reasonable & measured forecast out?

[Snowyowl9]

The storm the never was when the crisp packet had a battering. :lol:

[stratty]

Agree whole-heartedly with above - very disappointing here! From the cold uppers and what seemed a perfect easterly for here yesterday - delivered (looking out the window now) NOTHING in the way of settled snow. :lol:

Oh well, let's move on and see what happens with the rest of the week! :lol:

[marksp]

come on, its still snowing here, but not accumalating, still there is 12 cms and my location is at 160mts, i went for a walk at 10.00pm got back at 11.05 and must of at least got to 250mtrs and there was more snow depth, higher up on the routes to Chesterfield, Beely, Sheffield, Buxton, to name but a few there must be alot more snow. The snow did',t start in my area until 3.00pm but wow did it put some down. I must admit its not really accumalated for over 2 .5 hours BUT not bad, and i will readily admit it was'nt like the 70, or 80 spell, but all the same large areas have seem snow from the South East this morning onwards.

I'm sure theres more to come from the North, and South West over the next few days.

[TEITS]

Agree whole-heartedly with above - very disappointing here! From the cold uppers and what seemed a perfect easterly for here yesterday - delivered (looking out the window now) NOTHING in the way of settled snow.

Oh well, let's move on and see what happens with the rest of the week!

Have to admit im still shaking my head at disbelief to the lack of convection during last night for Cambs, Norfolk. I knew SE/NE England would see the main convection because the models hinted at this for several days but I would of still expected some convection to occur from a ENE,ly for our region. All I eventually had last night was three 10min heavy snow showers!

Back to todays wrong forecast and I have to agree it was shocking.

My brother phoned me at 2pm and asked me if the heavy snow was still likely because he was concerned about getting home after work due to the warnings. I had a peek at the radar and it was clear this was going to be a non event. There was an area of snow that developed N of London that moved NW into the Midlands during the afternoon but this was mainly moderate/light snow. Further E where the Met O was expecting the snow to develop was fairly weak in nature and what was falling was relatively fine snow rather than your large flakes and this I feel was due to the increasing upper temps changing the type of snowflake falling. So at 2.30pm I phoned my brother back and told him there was nothing to worry about as the snow isn't likely to add to the current depth. Thankfully I was proved correct.

At 5pm I checked the Met O website and to my horror at 15.00 they updated this forecast and continued to predict the heavy snow. How on earth can they suggest this for E Anglia/SE when it was obvious the only snow falling was mainly light/moderate. If anything for some locations in the E/SE all that happened is lying snow started thawing rather than increasing. Now obviously predicting snow is very difficult but why on earth didn't they just check the radar because frankly the updated forecast seemed the simple process of copy and paste from the mornings update!

[Guest]

I am so sad, there is now a slight thaw at the moment here, I am waiting for the skies to clear so that at least we can ge something of a frost. But as far as Watford was concerned the forecast was fairly accurate, just not as much further snow as I was expecting. We still have a lot left though.

The problem is that it never really got cold enough on the continent. I note now that Moscow's temperatures have dropped dramatically in the last couple of days or so, so if an easterly set up does recur in the near future, it could be interesting.

If you want to boost you ego, check out accuweather's forecasts for the next 15 days and see how they work out.

[Stratos Ferric]

I do agree. From late afternoon onwards anyone with access to radar could see that this was not going to happen. For the BBC & the METO to continue to allow such plainly inaccurate forecasts to be made around teatime was poor. I wonder if there had been a proper meteorologist doing the BBC1 evening forecast, rather than a presenter, they might have put a more reasonable & measured forecast out?

I wonder with the SE grinding to a halt in the face of an onslaught from Armageddon it was a case of too few staff on the ground in London. Not sure they would have had the same excuse at HQ in Exeter though. To be fair things did pep up here overnight, but you'd have to be measuring in Kentimetres to convert from the 2-3cm of fresn snow I received to the 30-40cm forecast. Maybe someone had an unlikely "double zero" typo incident?

[dice48]

im apsouketly discusted this time last year it must have snowed a hundred times and i accully thought it would be their in the morning but it wasnt! it shows how bad it is when london gets snow i think i might end up moving there.

[memories of 63]

Although I agree that we didn't have the armaggedon that we were promised, it's been a long time that I've seen 6" lying snow. I'm just happy to see snow

[da_bish]

Worst forecast was for 02 February 2009.

What snow? Missed here by miles.

[tundra]

I did the reverse of this a few weeks ago here

So when did a forecast really let you down? we know it often happens but what on really sticks in your mind?

I'm going for today and the big snow "main event" coming up from France.

I should not have anything to complain about. After all, before it's supposed arrival, we were already unexpectedly 6-7 inches to the good from the showers forecast. I thought I was going to be too far north of those showers and the Thames Streamer to get much, but it was magical. so....like a banker getting blinded by the profits he was making out of selling debt... I got over confident. I thought this was the moment I'm dreamt of as a kid playing with the sugar bowl where one dump of snow would be quickly followed by another. The forecast was "snow showers giving way to heavy snow" !!!! Well the showers had given me so much...the heavy snow was going to be awesome! What a pity my wife and kids weren't here to enjoy it with me...what a pity their flight from Ireland was cancelled and we couldn't get another one till wednesday....never mind there'd still be plenty of snow left when they finally got back!

Instead...what happened was a "Main Event" so poor that I don't imagine it would have amounted to a covering of snow without the previous showers, before it turned to rain. Instead of heightening what was already there, it degraded it. One that instead of enhancing the snow, turned magic into slush!

Yes....it's a wrong 'un that's very fresh in the mind.....but I think it will stick with me for a long long time!

Couldn't agree more about it being a non event although we got just over a inch from it adding to the six we already had. Just a queary about the thawing really as i am only about 10 miles west of you and i only lost about 1/2 inch in depth before sky's cleared.